Sports and Numbers

Player Contributions - 2007-08 Season
Latest Game Data Included - vs Texas (Big 12 Tournament)

Total Impact (ePSAN) - This represents the players with the greatest total impact on the team thus far.  It adjusts for quality of the opponent, and it gives more weight to recent performances.

Efficiency (ePSAN70) - Takes the "Total Impact" ratings and expresses them as "per-70-possessions," which is the number of possessions in a typical college basketball game.  Essentially adjusts for playing time, but remember that most backup players can't sustain a high level of play over a full game, which is probably why they are a backup player to begin with.

Most Valuable Player
Latest Game Data Included - vs Texas (Big 12 Tournament)

One way to describe the most valuable player on a team is to say that he is the player who contributes most positively and whose contributions make a difference.  That's what I'll attempt to ascertain with this ongoing analysis.

Methodology: Using multiple regression analysis, calculate which players' impact ratings for each game (cPSAN) best explain the variability in KU's team performance (using power ratings to adjust for opponent strength).  That is, which player(s) ups and downs best explain KU's ups and downs.  Among that group, the player with the highest "Total Impact" rating for the season (see above, ePSAN) is designated "Most Valuable Player."

1) Multiple regression currently shows these players' ratings to be significant in explaining KU's team performance variability:

94.0% of KU team performance variability, as measured by power ratings of each opponent and game score, are explained by the following players' corresponding cPSAN game ratings:

• Darrell Arthur
• Mario Chalmers
• Sherron Collins
• Darnell Jackson
• Sasha Kaun
• Russell Robinson
• Brandon Rush
  
• Rodrick Stewart
  

2) Eliminate those players whose cPSAN game ratings have a negative correlation with opponent's true rating below -0.10.  That is, the MVP should not play worse against better competition.  I use the cutoff of -0.10 somewhat arbitrarily and because someone who's pretty consistent might still come in just below the zero mark.  The main point is to eliminate someone who plays clearly worse against better competition.

Keep: Arthur, Chalmers, Collins, Kaun, Robinson

3) Highest ePSAN in list from #2 above is given designation of MVP.

Probability of Winning National Championship

The chart below comes from a market for trading futures.  People buy and sell options on whether certain events (sporting or otherwise) will take place.  The current price for an option is essentially the consensus opinion for how likely it is for an event to occur.  Because this is not a very highly-traded option, it's not as accurate as other categories, but I know many will find it interesting to follow.

Look at the "Closing Price" in the upper-left to estimate KU's current chance of winning this season's championship.