Sports and Numbers

Newsletter

 

Bulletin

See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page.  You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.
 
Kansas Basketball 2006-07 Statistical Summary Print E-mail
Oct 30, 2007

Player Contributions - Final 2006-07 Season
Latest Game Data Included - vs UCLA (NCAA Tournament)

Total Impact (ePSAN) - This represents the players with the greatest total impact on the team thus far.  It adjusts for quality of the opponent, and it gives more weight to recent performances.

Efficiency (ePSAN70) - Takes the "Total Impact" ratings and expresses them as "per-70-possessions," which is the number of possessions in a typical college basketball game.  Essentially adjusts for playing time, but remember that most backup players can't sustain a high level of play over a full game, which is probably why they are a backup player to begin with.

Total Impact

PLAYER ePSAN
Julian Wright 158.42
Mario Chalmers 150.74
Brandon Rush 139.24
Russell Robinson 115.30
Darnell Jackson 82.11
Sherron Collins 81.75
Darrell Arthur 75.83
Sasha Kaun 63.82
Jeremy Case* 14.00
Rodrick Stewart* 12.63
Brady Morningstar* 8.98
Brad Witherspoon* -1.84
Brennan Bechard* -2.07
Matt Kleinmann* -3.19

* Rating not based on enough data

Efficiency

PLAYER ePSAN70
Jeremy Case* 6.37
Julian Wright 6.04
Darnell Jackson 5.64
Mario Chalmers 5.36
Brady Morningstar* 4.68
Russell Robinson 4.49
Brandon Rush 4.46
Darrell Arthur 4.42
Sasha Kaun 3.91
Sherron Collins 3.68
Rodrick Stewart* 3.07
Matt Kleinmann* -2.09
Brennan Bechard* -2.70
Brad Witherspoon* -3.81

* Rating not based on enough data

 

Most Valuable Player
Latest Game Data Included - vs UCLA (NCAA Tournament)

Methodology: Using multiple regression analysis, calculate which players' impact ratings for each game (cPSAN) best explain the variability in KU's team performance (using power ratings to adjust for opponent strength).  That is, which player(s) ups and downs best explain KU's ups and downs.  Among that group, the player with the highest "Total Impact" rating for the season (see above, ePSAN) is designated "Most Valuable Player."

2006-07 Overall Season MVP

Mario Chalmers

 

Improvement Index

Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening.  "Game-to-Game" does this using each game # and the corresponding player performance.  "3-gm Moving Avg" does this using each game # and the average player performance over the 3 most recent games.  This helps iron out game-to-game variations in case they are masking a true overall trend.

 

Player 3-gm Moving Avg Game-to-Game
Brandon Rush 0.68 0.35
Mario Chalmers 0.28 0.14
Russell Robinson 0.24 0.16
Brad Witherspoon 0.24 0.14
Sherron Collins 0.21 0.06
Sasha Kaun 0.19 0.07
Rodrick Stewart 0.18 0.27
Darnell Jackson 0.13 0.06
Jeremy Case 0.04 0.11
Julian Wright 0.02 -0.03
Brady Morningstar -0.07 -0.03
Brennan Bechard -0.23 -0.31
Darrell Arthur -0.27 -0.21
Matt Kleinmann -0.33 -0.20

 * Gray - Rating not based on enough data

 

Consistency Index

Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa.

 

PLAYER Index
Brady Morningstar 0.61
Rodrick Stewart 0.26
Sasha Kaun 0.22
Mario Chalmers 0.15
Sherron Collins 0.14
Darrell Arthur 0.13
Brandon Rush -0.06
Russell Robinson -0.15
Julian Wright -0.16
Darnell Jackson -0.18
Matt Kleinmann -0.59
Jeremy Case -0.64

* Gray - Rating not based on enough data

 

Big Game Index

Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the true power rating of the opponent (taking homecourt into account).  Basically measures which players tend to perform better against stronger opponents.

PLAYER Index
Julian Wright 0.10
Sasha Kaun 0.05
Brandon Rush 0.03
Mario Chalmers 0.01
Brennan Bechard -0.03
Rodrick Stewart -0.06
Russell Robinson -0.08
Darrell Arthur -0.09
Darnell Jackson -0.12
Brad Witherspoon -0.14
Sherron Collins -0.24
Brady Morningstar -0.35
Matt Kleinmann -0.38
Jeremy Case -0.39

* Gray - Rating not based on enough data