Analysis: Will Kansas make the Tournament?

Feb 1, 2006

I've seen a lot of discussions about this, and it's very high on my list of priorities for this team. What do we need to do in order to make the tournament? And how likely is it that we will do so? HISTORY AS A GUIDE It's been said in the past that the Committee uses RPI more as a determinant of who gets in, but then uses power ratings for seeding. So, with that, let's take a look at the lowest RPI-rated teams to make it the last couple of seasons. In 2005, here are the lowest RPI-rated teams to make it in as at-large bids: NC State Record: 19-13 (7-9) RPI: #65 SOS: #42 Last 10: 6-4 Note: Made it to conf tourney final Iowa State Record: 18-11 (9-7) RPI: #63 SOS: #73 Last 10: 7-3 UAB Record: 21-10 (10-6) RPI: #49 SOS: #92 Last 10: 5-5 Iowa Record: 21-11 (7-9) RPI: #42 SOS: #43 Last 10: 6-4 Note: Made it to conf semis In 2004, here are the lowest RPI-rated teams to make it in as at-large bids: Washington Record: 19-11 (12-6) RPI: #60 SOS: #69 Last 10: 8-2 Note: Made it to conf tourney final Richmond Record: 20-12 (10-6) RPI: #47 SOS: #38 Last 10: 7-3 UTEP Record: 22-7 (13-5) RPI: #46 SOS: #105 Last 10: 7-3 Note: Made it to conf tourney final South Carolina Record: 23-10 (8-8) RPI: #45 Last 10: 4-6 Note: Made it to conf semis ANALYSIS I am using only the last two years because the Committee has been known to evolve in its assessment of teams over the years, so I wanted to stick with recent decisions. This is still eight teams that barely made it, so we can make some reasonable assumptions from this data. Looks like you need to be at least in the Top 65 of RPI ratings. With rare exception, you need to have at least 6 wins in your last ten games. Also with rare exception, your strength of schedule (SOS) should be ranked at least #75 or better. You should have at least 19 wins, but preferred 20. And conference records can only be at or below .500 if you're in a power conference (Big 12 probably qualifies) and win at least two games in your conference tournament. So, what does all this mean for KU? Goal: Achieve Top 65 RPI Prospects: This is very much in doubt. We're about to play a series of weak teams that should boost our record, meanwhile the stronger teams we've already played will begin to improve their records. And since RPI doesn't take into account which of the teams on your schedule that you beat, only what your record is and what their combined records are, we stand to gain. Of course, if we lose as many games as we win the rest of the way, we won't be in the Top 65 RPI. We need to improve rapidly and hope that some of our opponents win their other games, too. Goal: SOS #75 or better Prospects: Excellent given our strong non-conference schedule and power conference status. Of course, if Nevada, Arizona, and Kentucky eventually turn out to be busts, this will be a bit more difficult. But for some perspective, last year only two Big 12 teams finished with SOS worse than #75, and both of those teams had non-conference SOS of worse than #320! So, we should be fine. Goal: Total wins of 19 Prospects: We need 16 more wins to achieve this (Chaminade win doesn't count). Let's break them down. Games we should win (>75% chance of winning): (8) - Pepperdine, N. Colorado, New Orleans, Yale, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Missouri, Baylor Toss-up games (between 25-75% chance): (11) - Kentucky, @Colorado, Kansas St., @Missouri, @Texas A&M, @Iowa St., Oklahoma, @Nebraska, Iowa St., Colorado, @Kansas St. Games we should lose (<25%): (2) @Oklahoma St., @Texas So, we win 7 of the "should win" games, 6 of the toss-ups, and 0 of the "should lose" games, and maybe even 1 conf tourney game = 17 total wins. We actually have very little room for error if we want 19 Div-I wins. We would likely need to win all 8 "should win" games and 7 of the toss-ups. That way, only 1 conf tourney win would give us the 19-win cushion. The odds of this are not very good, I'd say. This means we'll most likely need 2 conf tourney wins. Goal: Should have a conference record above .500 (prefer 9-7 in the Big 12) Prospects: 4 "should win" games + 10 toss-ups could very easily equal 9 wins. Goal: Last 10 should be at least 6-4 Prospects: Because we will need at least 1 conf tourney win to make the Big Dance, that means our last 10 looks like this: @Nebraska, ISU, @OSU, Missouri, Baylor, @Tex, Colorado, @KSU, Conf Game #1 (needs to be win), Conf Game #2 (loss) There are 3 certain losses (@OSU, @Tex, conf tourney game) and 3 certain victories (MU, BU, conf game). So, we need 3 wins from @Nebraska, ISU, Colorado, @KSU. We'd better be good enough not to lose home games. So, it really boils down to whether we can win at either Nebraska or KSU. And of course, none of this matters if we don't win our first conference tournament game (most likely against a very weak team because Top 4 teams get a bye, leaving seeds #5 and #6 to play weak teams). All in all, I'd say the prospects of being 6-4 in our last 10 are good but not great. SUMMARY We'll have the SOS. We have a good chance of having the right conference record and Last 10 record. But the chances of winning enough games (19) or having a high enough RPI ranking (65) to get in are much lower unless we perform SIGNIFICANTLY better than we have.

 

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