Sports and Numbers

So, we've now seen the completion of the second mini-season ... conference play.  The first was non-conference play.  And the difference in player performance between the two is quite significant.  I decided to take a look at player ratings broken up into nonconference vs conference play to see who really stepped it up in Big 12 play.  I think most people could tell you off the top of their heads that Chalmers made a huge jump and was possibly our best player.  The rest though would be less obvious.  Let's take a look.

cPSAN70 Ratings Difference In Conference and Non-Conference

(Note: cPSAN70 weighs games equally and accounts for playing time.  This was used instead of ePSAN70, which
weighs recent games more, because the season is no longer being looked at as one continuous event.)

* Ratings not based on enough data

This table shows us that Chalmers stepped up his play most, as measured by this ratings system.  And he was #1 in this change by a huge margin.  Jackson stepped up 2nd best.  This didn't gel with my "gut feeling" because Darnell has been somewhat down lately.  But I guess that he's been very efficient with his limited time.  And the cPSAN70 doesn't weigh recent games more.  Another explanation would be that he didn't play a whole lot of non-conference games, so his non-conference rating could be artificially low, making his difference artificially high.

Jeff Hawkins is at #3.  Really?  This surprised me.  But think about it ... everyone was bashing JHawk early in the season when he was starting ahead of Mario.  But eventually, Self settled on the right starting lineup, and Hawkins had the occasional terrific game (Player of the Game on at least one occasion).  Mix in his terrific games with his occasionally terrible game and you get an average rating, which is way better than his team-worst non-conference rating.

Robinson and Giles also stepped it up a significant notch.  Kaun improved, too, which is remarkable given his already-high non-conference rating.

Brandon Rush was tied for 2nd in non-conference play, and he barely moved his rating down in conference play.  Could have been worse if not for his KSU heroics in the last game.  Meanwhile, Moody dropped off the face of the planet in conference play.

Julian Wright led the team in non-conference play ratings and slipped slightly in conference play.  This was a bit surprising, because I had the feeling all along that Julian only started getting it recently and really has come on strong.  But he really did play well over the course of the non-conference season when you account for his playing time.  The early games, when he struggled most, he wasn't playing lots of minutes.  But in the games he played a lot, he usually fared well.

cPSAN Ratings Difference In Conference and Non-Conference

(Note: cPSAN shows the contributions from an absolute standpoint, without taking into account how much playing time
a player had.  In a way, it's like measuring "total impact" which usually benefits those who
play more, but then they are the ones who matter more to the outcome.)

This analysis shows that the "total impact" made by Chalmers resulted in the largest jump in ranking on the team.  The reason I'm using "ranking difference" instead of cPSAN rating difference is that each rating is based on a different number of games, so it would be comparing apples to oranges.  Instead, this shows how the player's impact ranked on the team.

The ranking difference or jump follows somewhat the same pattern as we saw in the first table above.  So, instead, focus on the Top 5 in Non-Conference versus Conference.

Top 5 Non-Conference cPSAN: Rush, Kaun, Wright, Giles, and Moody

Top 5 Conference cPSAN: Chalmers, Rush, Robinson, Kaun, Wright

This really confirms the belief that the starting five early in the season was not producing.  Hawkins and Robinson were starters in non-conference play, but neither was in the Top 5 in "total impact" to the game.  In conference play, we see that the starters completely make up the Top 5.  Everything is as it should be now.

Bottom Line:  Which players stepped up their games in conference play?  Chalmers the most by far.  To a lesser extent, Jackson, Hawkins, and Robinson.  Giles also has recently, but the totality of his conference play was still less impressive than his non-conference play.  Which players didn't show up in conference play?  Really only Moody.  But give the man a break ... he has given every ounce of sweat and dedication to Kansas his entire career, starting as a walk-on.