NCAA Basketball Kansas Basketball Analysis: Unexpected Possession Changes
NCAA Basketball Kansas Basketball Analysis: Unexpected Possession Changes
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| Analysis: Unexpected Possession Changes |
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| Dec 31, 2005 | |
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One of the things Coach Self brought up in the postgame was the "wasted possessions" this season. Unexpected changes of possession happen throughout the game, and they can really tip the momentum in favor of one team or the other. I wanted to take a look at who does a good job of tipping the balance in KU's favor in this regard. Since our shooting defense has been so strong, it stands to reason that if KU can win the game of "unexpected changes of possession" wins will really start to pile up. Three stat categories lend themselves to this analysis well. A STL always results in a change of possession in KU's favor. A TO is always bad. A BLK may result in an unexpected change of possession also. But to be fair, sometimes blocks just give the opponent one more chance at the basket. So, I'll weight that rating at 50%. Keep in mind that I'm using ratings, not raw AST, STL, BLK. One could do this analysis using either per-minute or per-game stats, but I think both are important. That's why I'm using my rating, which incorporates both. Let's take a look at three key statistics that involve an unexpected change of possession (STL, TO, BLK): NOTE: For TO rating, positive is WORSE. NAME TO STL BLK Brandon Rush 0.14 -0.82 0.03 C.J. Giles 0.46 0.01 2.33 Christian Moody 0.17 -0.51 -0.42 Darnell Jackson 0.54 0.08 0.12 Jeff Hawkins 1.06 0.03 -0.82 Jeremy Case -1.14 -0.79 -0.90 Julian Wright 0.59 0.39 1.18 Mario Chalmers 1.78 2.46 -0.90 Micah Downs -1.42 -1.37 -0.58 Russell Robinson -0.29 0.84 0.29 Sasha Kaun -1.03 -0.46 0.55 Stephen Vinson -0.85 0.14 -0.90 Here's what happens when I apply the formula (STL + 0.5*BLK - TO): NAME STL+0.5*BLK-TO Russell Robinson 1.27 Sasha Kaun 0.84 C.J. Giles 0.72 Stephen Vinson 0.53 Julian Wright 0.39 Mario Chalmers 0.22 Jeremy Case -0.09 Micah Downs -0.23 Darnell Jackson -0.40 Christian Moody -0.88 Brandon Rush -0.94 Jeff Hawkins -1.44 You can make of this what you will, but it does show some interesting things: - "Steady" may truly be the best way to describe Russell's play. Robinson may not do a lot of jaw-dropping moves, but he's really doing a good job of keeping the ball in our possession. I really like how he's developed. His above-average BLK rating is quite surprising and another reason his presence helps the team. - Hawkins does cause headaches for ball possession. And he doesn't steal as often as we'd hope for such a supposedly great on-the-ball defender. I really do like the guy and appreciate his hard work. Just saying that the ball seems to end up in our opponents' hands more often when he's in. - Rush has shown signs of poor ballhandling. You see it when he's dribbling out around the perimeter. Yet, his TO rating isn't terrible. But he has the 2nd-worst STL rating on the team (behind Downs). Rush isn't the culprit for too many "wasted possessions" probably, but he hasn't contributed well to unexpected possession changes. - Mario and Julian have received a lot of flack for their careless turnovers, but on balance, they've done pretty well for KU in taking or keeping the ball. |
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