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Preview: Connecticut at West Virginia

February 18, 2006

Connecticut at West Virginia

  Connecticut West Virginia

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 22-2 17-6
RPI 4 21
Sagarin Power Ranking 2 18
Pomeroy Power Ranking 2
Last 5: #1		 14
Last 5: #13
Best games this season (RPI) vs Pittsburgh (#6) W80-76
vs Gonzaga (#12) W65-53		 @ Villanova (#2) W91-87
@ UCLA (#11) W60-56

Predictions

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 4.5  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 4.5  
Pomeroy Ratings Win by 1  

 

Pre-Game Interesting Stats
Despite its strong record and power ratings, WVU has actually been outshot on the year 44.9 to 44.8%
UConn games feature about 41 FT attempts, while WVU games have only about 25
WVU has an insanely high AST:TO ratio of 2.07 (NCAA average is 0.92)
WVU takes almost 50% of its shots from behind the arc, while UConn only takes about 23% of its shots there
UConn averages about 5 more blocks per game than its opponents, while WVU is about even
UConn outrebounds its opponents by double digits, while WVU gets outrebounded by nearly the same
In conference play, UConn actually allows 1.03 AST:TO ratio, which is barely higher than its own
On the road, UConn averages 26 FTA's, while WVU at home allows only 10 FTA's

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of Ratings

Connecticut Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Ben Spencer* 6.65 0.53
Jeff Adrien 5.68 58.20
Nick Forostoski* 5.50 0.58
Hilton Armstrong 4.83 80.95
Josh Boone 4.75 77.10
Rashad Anderson 4.54 65.10
Rudy Gay 4.52 81.68
Ed Nelson 3.84 21.42
Ryan Thompson* 3.24 2.05
Marcus Johnson 3.22 15.01
Marcus Williams 1.08 11.19
Denham Brown 0.80 9.94
Craig Austrie 0.67 8.51
Osazee Omokaro* -0.51 -0.05
Rob Garrison -1.02 -4.07
Martin Gagne* -27.53 -3.62

* Played fewer than 20% of possessions.
Rating not based on enough data.

 

West Virginia Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Mike Gansey 7.87 149.45
Ted Talkington* 7.44 2.95
Nate Tallman* 7.13 0.33
Joe Alexander* 6.99 5.86
Kevin Pittsnogle 4.81 95.63
Alex Ruoff* 2.92 4.22
Frank Young 1.56 22.47
Joe Herber 1.46 25.71
Patrick Beilein 1.08 14.66
J.D. Collins 0.69 10.49
Rob Summers* 0.25 0.58
Darris Nichols -1.21 -8.98
Sean Martini* -5.16 -0.84
Josh Sowards* -14.29 -3.33

* Played fewer than 20% of possessions.
Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

The Connecticut juggernaut has a roster that is predictably stacked with high-caliber players.  Five players have a cPSAN70 higher than 4, and two more have a rating of at least 3.  Though Boone and Gay get all the attention, according to this rating system Adrien and Armstrong deserve even greater consideration in terms of how efficiently they get the job done.  In fact, Armstrong is only a nudge lower than Gay when you don't even account for playing time.  Armstrong has really given a lot to this team!

Boone hurts his rating at the freethrow line, where he makes about as many as anyone else on the team, but he is missing so many freehthrows.  And missed freethrows ultimately result in empty possessions (or subpar ones).  Gay's weakness is in the two mistake-related categories, TO and PF.

Adrien and Armstrong are extremely strong contributors and efficient ones at that.  Adrien is just incredibly efficient even though his raw numbers are nearly as high as some others on the team.  Armstrong, meanwhile, makes a killing on 2FG, FT, rebounds, and BLK.

For WVU, it's a two-man show with Gansey and Pittsnogle.  Even though it was Pittsnogle who came into the spotlight in last year's Tournament, Gansey has been the runaway winner according to this rating model.  Gansey's advantage comes from his ability to knock down 2FG's as well as the 3FG's plus his significant number of STL.  Pittsnogle struggles with the 2FG's, but he does a better job of blocking shots than Gansey.  These two form the foundation of star talent on this team.  Beyond that, it's a rather big dropoff to the next-highest-rated players.

Efficiency Analysis

Connecticut

West Virginia
  • UConn plays at a very fast tempo (#34), with an elite offense (#8) and defense (#4)
  • On offense, UConn does everything well but in particular they are peerless in their offensive rebounding (#3)
  • On defense, UConn leads the nation in eFG% defense and is #4 in limiting opponents from getting to the FT line
  • UConn's one liability on defense is one of the lowest rates of forcing turnovers from opponents (#270)
  • UConn ranks #4 in blocking shots per possession

 
  •  
  • WVU plays at a snail's pace (#251), with an incredible offense (#14) and excellent defense (#37)
  • On offense, WVU shoots extremely well eFG% (#38) and holds onto the ball like glue (#2)
  • WVU is possibly the worst offensive rebounding team (#331) and worst at using the FT line as a weapon (#330)
  • On defense, WVU excels at forcing turnovers (#18) and leads the nation in holding opponents away from the FT line
  • WVU is terrible at limiting offensive rebounds by opponents (#292) and lets opponents shoot too well (#225)
  • WVU is one of the least blocked teams in the country (#21)
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, UConn relies extremely heavily on 2FG's, limits its reliance on 3FG's, while their opponents rely most on 2FG's.
  • On offense, WVU relies on 3FG's almost completely at the expense of 2FG's and FT, while their opponents cannot count on FT's.

Game Outlook

This is not a good matchup for West Virginia.  UConn is most likely going to shoot a high percentage against WVU, and even when they miss, the Mountaineers aren't going to stop the Huskies from getting the offensive rebound and putting it back in.  Meanwhile, on offense, WVU can expect to struggle against the nation's leading eFG% defense, and when they do miss, they can't expect to get any offensive rebounds against this UConn team, considering they don't get them against anyone else.

Most likely, WVU will get plenty of chances to shoot, since they hold onto the ball very well, and UConn doesn't force turnovers.  So, there is a glimmer of hope for WVU if they hit an unusually high percentage of their three-pointers, which will be the biggest key to this game.  But even then, it would only be enough to give them a chance.  UConn will have to play a subpar game to lose this one.

My personal prediction: Connecticut wins 73-69.

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
WVU must hit their 3FG's WVU to hit 45% of their 3FG's    
It is a very tough task, but WVU must limit UConn's offensive rebounding to have a chance at keeping their offense in check, even a little better than expected WVU to get at least 30% of available offensive rebounds    
Tempo - if it's fast, it favors UConn At least 71 possessions for each team in the game    


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