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Preview: Oklahoma at Texas

March 4, 2006

Oklahoma at Texas (Austin, TX)

  Oklahoma Texas

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 20-6 24-5
RPI 10 8
Sagarin Power Ranking 24 4
Pomeroy Power Ranking 31
Last 5: #96		 5
Last 5: #36
Best games this season (RPI) vs Texas (#8) W82-72
vs Alabama (#38) W68-56		 vs Villanova (#2) W58-55
@ Memphis (#5) W69-58

Predictions

    
Vegas Oddsmakers   Win by 10
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)   Win by 12.5
Pomeroy Ratings   Win by 6

 

Pre-Game Interesting Stats

Stat

Result

Edge
Both teams average almost 10 more rebounds per game than their opponents    
In the last 5 games, OU is giving up almost 50% FG (including 48% 3FG), but UT is giving up only 40%    
In the last 5 games, both teams' opponents are averaging a very healthy 1.25 AST:TO ratio    

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of PSAN-related Ratings

Oklahoma Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Taj Gray 4.98 90.01
Michael Neal 4.35 71.44
Kevin Bookout 3.03 56.96
Nate Carter 2.93 27.71
Taylor Griffin 2.78 18.21
Longar Longar* 2.50 8.39
Terrell Everett 1.21 24.73
David Godbold 0.86 11.91
Austin Johnson -2.28 -19.58
Michael Ott* -3.17 -0.58
Chris Walker -4.58 -13.77
Kellen Sampson* -6.70 -4.77

* Played fewer than 8 minutes per game.
Rating not based on enough data.

 

Texas Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
LaMarcus Aldridge 6.02 139.94
Brad Buckman 4.68 77.24
P.J. Tucker 4.01 94.95
Daniel Gibson 2.47 57.30
Kenton Paulino 2.43 47.38
A.J. Abrams 1.33 19.44
J.D. Lewis* 0.87 3.28
Mike Williams 0.60 4.79
Craig Winder* 0.35 0.98
Connor Atchley -0.61 -3.01

*Played fewer than 8 minutes per game.
Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Lots of stars in this game.  P.J. Tucker is considered by many to be Player of the Year in the Big 12 (although this rating system would give the nod to Aldridge big time).  Aldridge is considered by many to be the #1 pick of the next NBA draft, and Taj Gray is a first-team all-conference type of player.  With such star-studded rosters, excellent coaches, and a share of the Big 12 a possibility for Texas, this will be an energized atmosphere to be sure.

Aldridge, Buckman, and Tucker are a devastating trio and will pose the greatest threat all season to Oklahoma's dominance on the offensive glass.  In their first game (won by OU in Norman), the trio combined for 42 points and 22 rebounds, but they were plagued by 4 fouls each.  Gray and Bookout also did well but had 4 fouls each.  Granted, they all still played their minutes, but those minutes were probably less effective due to foul trouble.

Michael Neal could be very key for OU.  He went 4-8 in the first matchup, and he is the 2nd most efficient player on the team.  In a game where Texas will likely play lots of zone, OU's outside guys have to step up (Neal, Everett and Godbold).  But only Neal has been the overall solid player.  Everett can be deadly if he can just keep his TO's down.

On Texas' side, there are 3-point shooters galore.  And unfortunately, OU has one of the country's worst 3-pt FG% defenses.  The UT perimeter players will probably have a great scoring day.

 

Efficiency Analysis

Oklahoma

Texas
  • OU plays at an extremely slow tempo (#284), with an elite offense (#14) and good defense (#75)
  • OU's tremendous offensive efficiency comes almost exclusively as a result of their #1-ranked offensive rebounding capability
  • In other aspects of offensive efficiency, OU is only a little above average, except TO's where they are #204
  • The story is the same on defense, where they are #7 in preventing opponents from getting offensive caroms but only above average in all other aspects
  • UT plays at a very slow tempo (#222)
  • UT is one of only two teams in the country (UConn is other) with top-ten rated offense (#4) and defense (#3)
  • UT's tremendous offensive efficiency comes as a result of both offensive rebounding (#8) and shooting eFG% (#32), because they are only average in other aspects
  • On defense, UT is incredible in all aspects except forcing TO's where they are above average
  • UT owns the blocking game, with a #9 ranking in avoiding being blocked and #28 ranking in blocking the opposition
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • OU's scoring is reasonably balanced, except that they shy away from the 3FG a bit, while their opponents shy a bit from the 2FG's but also are fairly balanced.
  • UT relies a bit less on FT's and emphasizes a few more 3FG's, while their opponents use very little 3FG scoring.

Game Outlook

The only reason the first game between these two was such a high scoring affair is that both teams shot extremely well.  They played only about a 65-possession game (NCAA median this year is 67.7).  On Texas' home floor, don't expect the Sooners to shoot 54% again.  If OU wins this game, it will be because they end up dominating the offensive glass, get Texas big men into foul trouble early, and keep Texas to an average number of offensive rebounds, all the while hoping Texas doesn't shoot lights out as they did against Kansas.

Texas has a share of the Big 12 on the line, the revenge factor, a history of playing extremely well at home, and they have the edge in talent.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Texas wins 74-59.

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
OU must dominate the offensive glass, not just above average OU to grab at least 40% of offensive rebounds    
OU must limit Aldridge, Tucker, and Buckman's playing time by getting them into foul trouble Aldridge, Tucker, and Buckman to combine for no more than 95 minutes    
If UT gets even an average amount of offensive rebounds, it should provide enough offensive efficiency to have an advantage UT to grab at least 30% of available offensive rebounds    


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