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Preview: North Carolina at Duke

March 3, 2006

North Carolina at Duke (Durham, NC)

  North Carolina Duke

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 20-6 27-2
RPI 13 1
Sagarin Power Ranking 8 1
Pomeroy Power Ranking 11
Last 5: #1		 1
Last 5: #6
Best games this season (RPI) vs Arizona (#19) W86-69
@ NC State (#31) W95-71		 vs Memphis (#5) W70-67
vs Texas (#10) W97-66

Predictions

    
Vegas Oddsmakers   Win by 7
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)   Win by 8.5
Pomeroy Ratings   Win by 10

 

Pre-Game Interesting Stats

Stat

Result

Edge
Both teams average almost 8 more FTA's than their opponents, but in conference play UNC takes only 3 more and Duke takes 6 more    
Duke opponents take only 21% of their shots from deep, while UNC takes 31% of its shots from three    
Both teams are shooting over 40% from three-point in conference play    
In conference play, UNC outrebounds opponents by over 8 rpg, while Duke gets outboarded by over 5 rpg    
In conference play, Duke forces opponents into 1.5 more TO's per game, but UNC commits 4 more TO's than opponents    
Duke takes twice as high a percentage of its shots from three-point as its opponents in conference play (35% vs 17%)    
As an underdog, UNC struggles with FTA's (opponents take 1 more per game), TO's (commit 5 more than opponents), but still shoot and rebound very well    

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of PSAN-related Ratings

North Carolina Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Tyler Hansbrough 5.78 116.96
Mike Copeland* 4.76 5.62
Reyshawn Terry 4.60 73.71
Danny Green 4.45 47.68
David Noel 3.14 71.32
Wes Miller 2.56 39.72
Surry Wood* 2.41 1.01
Dewey Burke* 1.77 0.79
Will Robinson* 1.15 0.57
Marcus Ginyard 0.62 8.08
Quentin Thomas 0.36 2.58
Thomas Wilkins* 0.12 0.06
Bobby Frasor 0.05 1.01
Byron Sanders -0.62 -5.62

* Played fewer than 8 minutes per game.
Rating not based on enough data.

 

Duke Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Shelden Williams 9.11 223.59
Eric Boateng* 5.33 6.33
Josh McRoberts 5.01 86.86
J.J. Redick 4.68 129.64
Jordan Davidson* 4.29 1.22
Jamal Boykin* 3.79 6.46
Ross Perkins* 3.74 1.16
Patrick Johnson* 3.01 1.71
Sean Dockery 2.89 66.49
DeMarcus Nelson 2.13 19.99
Lee Melchionni 1.78 28.24
Joe Pagliuca* 0.00 0.00
Greg Paulus -0.09 -2.26
Martynas Pocius* -0.10 -0.45

*Played fewer than 8 minutes per game.
Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Duke's tremendous success this season leads to lots of "PSAN points" to be spread around.  So, naturally the talent on the floor is predicted to be much greater for Duke than for UNC.  Shelden Williams and J.J. Redick alone combine for more total contributions (sum of their cPSAN scores) than the entire UNC team.  And if that weren't enough, McRoberts actually has a better efficiency rating (cPSAN70) than Redick or any UNC player except Hansbrough.

One thing that strikes me is the lack of depth on both teams.  Looking at cPSAN contributions, UNC has only five players in double figures on that measure, and Duke has only six despite all the ratings points they have to go around.  Also interesting is that Duke has one starter that has the lowest efficiency rating on the team (Paulus).

 

Efficiency Analysis

North Carolina

Duke
  • UNC plays at a blistering tempo (#26), with the nation's 3rd best offense and an elite defense (#14)
  • UNC's offense excels in all phases (especially offensive rebounds - #7) except that they turn the ball over way too often (#248) as a percent of possessions
  • Similarly, on defense UNC excels in all phases except that they do not force TO's on enough possessions (#200)
  • UNC is one of the best teams in terms of percentage of made field goals that are assisted (#18)
  • Duke plays at a blistering tempo (#21), with the nation's best offense and an elite defense (#16)
  • On offense, almost no team surpasses Duke's ability to shoot and use the freethrow line as a weapon, while they also excel at avoiding TO's (#42) but are terrible at rebounding their few misses (#264)
  • On defense, Duke is essentially a mirror image of its offense, with excellent shooting defense and keeping opponents off the freethrow line, while they are terrible at keeping opponents off the offensive glass
  • Duke owns the "blocking" game by avoiding blocks on offense (#41) and swatting plenty on defense (#16)
  • Duke is one of the best teams in terms of keeping opponents from assisting their made FG's (#6)
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • Duke scores a disproportionately high percent of its points from the freethrow line but low percentage from 2FG, while on defense it is ridulous how much its opponents are forced to rely on 2FG's.
  • UNC is a much less extreme version of Duke in that they score a reasonably above-average percent of their points from the freethrow line, while opponents score an above-average percent of their points from 2FG's at the expense of FT's.

Game Outlook

The last game went down to the wire after it looked as though Duke would run away with it.  So, we know that UNC has the ability to play with the Bluedevils.  But in Durham, it'll be much tougher for UNC to mount a comeback, especially in light of this being many of their players' first time playing significant minutes in Cameron Indoor.  Poise will be key in determining whether UNC makes it close or lets Duke blow them out.

A few things we can be sure of.  This game will be played at a fast tempo, probably with above average offensive efficiency.  UNC should own the glass.  Duke should win the blocking game and force UNC to take lots of outside shots.  UNC will likely have more TO's than Duke and take many fewer FT's, meaning they will really have to do well in the other phases of offensive efficiency (shooting, offensive rebounding).

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Duke wins 86-75.

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
UNC must shoot the ball extremely well, particularly from the outside UNC to shoot at least 50 eFG% (preferably at least 38% from 3FG)    
UNC must dominate the offensive rebounding game UNC to grab at least 40% of available offensive rebounds    
Redick doesn't always have the most efficient game, but in the last 5 minutes of the game, he can suddenly dominate and take over. If the game is in contention during the last 5 minutes, Redick must shoot at least 45 eFG%, or else he could shoot Duke out of the game    


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