Preview: Illinois at Wisconsin

January 30, 2006

Illinois at Wisconsin (Madison, WI)

Interesting Stats

• Wisconsin games feature much higher 2nd-half scoring than they do 1st-half scoring (15 more points total in 2nd half)
• Illinois is pitiful at the FT line (62.3%), but Wisconsin is not full of marksmanship either (65.8%)
• Both teams have excellent AST:TO ratios while holding opponents to extremely low ratios
• Illinois' opponents take very few 3-pointers, while Wisconsin's opponents take slightly higher than average number
• On the road, Illinois is an entirely different team, with poor shooting, rebounding, even worse FT's, AST:TO ratio, and relying even more heavily on 3-pt shooting
• In the last 5 games, 40% of Wisconsin's shots have come from behind the arc 

SANZ and eSANZ Ratings

Do NOT compare player ratings on one team to the ratings on another team.
See link to "Explanation of my ratings" to the right for description of what SANZ and eSANZ represent.

Illinois SANZ Ratings

Wisconsin SANZ Ratings

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Although Taylor has contributed the most to the boxscore given his minutes, it's Butch that has played more efficiently according to this rating system.  As a big, Butch excels in what he should, 2FG, rebounding, and blocks.  Meanwhile, he doesn't hurt the team with too many turnovers or fouls.  Taylor has helped the team the most from the freethrow line and three-point line, but he's a team-worst in the 2FG rating category (these are not necessarily correlated exactly with shooting percentage ... they take into account how often a player shoots also).  He also has a team-worst TO rating.

Where does all this leave leading scorer Tucker?  Well, he sure scores a lot of points, but he does it terribly inefficiently.  He is killing the team from the freethrow line and 3-point line.  He turns it over too often and doesn't contribute much to any other category.  He must be doing something since the coach plays him 33 minutes a game.  But his stats reflect some inefficiencies there.  Krabbenhoft has the worst combination of rating combined with playing time (i.e., he's hurt the team the most this season).

On Illinois' side, this is Augustine and Brown's team.  Dee gets all the attention, but it's really Augustine who's contributing the most.  But don't overlook Smith.  He's scoring 9 points per game in only 19 minutes per game, and he's even shooting well above 50% from behind the arc.  But this is definitely Augustine and Brown's team.  They need to step up to make sure Illinois can win on the road.

Game Outlook

This game could boil down to the Illini's 3-point shooting, since they score a lot of them and Wisconsin's opponents seem to score more selectively from there.  What does that mean?  Mr. Brown, McBride, and Smith must have big games.  For Wisconsin, they must make sure to watch those Illini perimeter players.  And when Illinois misses from deep, Wisconsin must do a good job of getting defensive rebounds.  Wisconsin doesn't usually beat itself based on these numbers, so if they can make sure to do the little things and hope Illinois doesn't get hot from the perimeter, it is probably their game to lose.

My personal prediction: Wisconsin wins 66-62.

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