Preview: Duke at North Carolina

February 6, 2006

Duke at North Carolina (Chapel Hill, NC)

Interesting Stats

• Although most NCAA teams score more points in the 2nd half than they do in the 1st, Duke actually scores about 1.5 points fewer in the 2nd half (4 pt differential when they are on the road)
• Not only does Duke make at least 10 steals per game, UNC allows over 10 spg itself
• Duke opponents take only 22% of their shots from deep, and they don't shoot well on the ones they take (29%)
• Duke's opponents on the road make 35% of their 3-pt shots (much better than the 29% allowed overall)
• On the road, Duke takes 6 more FTA's than its opponents, while at home UNC takes a whopping 12 more
• On the road, Duke's AST:TO ratio is about the same as its opponents ... about 1.00
• At home, UNC takes much fewer 3FG's (28% of their shots), possibly because they rebound so well
• In conference play, Duke is allowing almost 46% FG shooting, while UNC holds to about 42%
• In conference play, UNC has a worse AST:TO ratio than its opponents (0.89 vs 0.98)
• In conference play, Duke makes over 11 spg, while UNC averages merely 5.6 spg
• In conference play, Duke's opponents take an even lower number of 3FG's ... 18.3% of their shots
• Duke averages 7 blocks per game in conference play
• In the last 5 games, UNC has held opponents to only 30% 3-pt shooting
• In the last 5 games, both teams have worse AST:TO ratios than their opponents

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of PSAN-related Ratings

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Duke supplies the All-American firepower in this matchup.  Williams and McRoberts have been thoroughly and efficiently dominant.  And most people would overlook Redick's lower rating here and say that he's one of the handful of candidates for Player of the Year.  So, no matter how you cut it, Duke's players are extremely talented, as their record would indicate.

North Carolina is not short on stars either.  Hansbrough has been a beast inside from the moment he stepped onto the court.  The freshman is rated even higher than Redick, which is impressive considering that Duke's superior team strength does give Redick an edge in the ratings.  Hansbrough is truly having a spectacular season.  Danny Green is no slouch either.  With good shooting and a surprising number of blocks, Green has been a surprising force for the young Tarheels.  His efficiency has been better than that of Terry and Noel, but because of less playing time, his overall contribution (cPSAN) is still lower than those two's.

Much heralded freshman Greg Paulus for Duke has shown he is very capable, but his rating here puts him last on the team.  Why?  Turnovers.  This is a bit complicated, but here's the gist.  Duke has an excellent points-per-possession rating.  So, the value of a possession is extremely high for them compared to most teams.  A turnover takes a possession away from them, which means that Paulus' high number of turnovers hurts him more than it would a player on a less efficient team.  Even though Paulus has a 1.6 AST:TO ratio, the overall contribution of his AST and TO is significantly negative because of what I just outlined.  No doubt, the kid has skills and will improve and be a star, but for now according to this ratings system, he's not contributing as well as his teammates. 

Game Outlook

Duke-UNC is always a good game.  To predict that one team will clearly win would be ludicrous.  The odds favor an up-and-down game with plenty of freethrows.  UNC will most likely pound it inside as Duke usually shuts down the perimeter game.  That means Hansbrough vs Williams will be the key matchup here.  If Hansbrough can get Williams into foul trouble, that will really open things up for UNC.  But their margin for error is slim because Redick will be firing 3FG's all night long.  The good news for UNC is that when the 3FG's miss, Duke doesn't usually get offensive rebounds, which means UNC will be running their fast break quite freely.

Also, expect there to be plenty of turnovers from UNC.  They're young, it's an emotional game, and there will be a lot of running.  But Paulus turns it over quite often himself.  The battle of backcourt turnovers may be another important key to this game.

My personal prediction: Duke wins 84-77.

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