Home
Kansas Basketball
NCAA Basketball
Basketball Conference Simulations
Basketball Player Ratings Explanation

Football
Radio Appearances
Newsletter
Links
Contact

 

 

 

Preview: Villanova vs Florida

March 25, 2006

Villanova (1) vs Florida (3) - NCAA Tournament 2006

  Villanova Florida

Talent Indicators

    
Records 28-4 30-6
Sagarin Power Ranking 4 6
Pomeroy Power Ranking 5
Last 5: #38		 3
Last 5: #1

Predictions

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 1.5  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)   Win by 1
Pomeroy Ratings   Win by 1

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of Ratings

Villanova Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Frank Tchuisi* 6.84 3.45
Dwayne Anderson* 6.18 8.01
Kyle Lowry 4.78 107.57
Randy Foye 4.51 119.97
Baker Dunleavy* 3.58 2.32
Allan Ray 3.32 79.54
Will Sheridan 2.98 64.24
Jason Fraser 2.63 28.74
Dante Cunningham 2.41 35.83
Chris Charles* 2.27 5.77
Bilal Benn* 2.07 5.11
Mike Nardi 1.66 33.35
Shane Clark 0.84 5.64
Ross Condon* -6.87 -0.66

* Played fewer than 20% of possessions.
Rating not based on enough data.

 

Florida Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Joakim Noah 8.70 185.16
Al Horford 6.25 140.31
Garrett Tyler* 4.43 4.30
Chris Richard 3.73 57.37
Lee Humphrey 3.07 76.63
Corey Brewer 3.04 74.20
Taurean Green 1.83 53.06
David Huertas 1.47 10.91
Adrian Moss 1.15 11.74
Brett Swanson* 0.38 0.42
Walter Hodge -0.39 -6.78
Jack Berry* -0.94 -0.71

* Played fewer than 20% of possessions.
Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Florida boasts the two strongest players on the floor, in terms of this player ratings system anyway.  Noah and Horford both have impressive efficiency (cPSAN70) ratings and "total impact" (cPSAN) ratings.  They're not only playing extremely well, they are playing lots of minutes to contribute to the game.  Richard, Humphrey, and Brewer round out the rest of the players who are reasonably efficient and play minutes.

Nova has a much more balanced attack, with Lowry and Foye leading the way.  Foye's had a greater overall impact due to playing time, but Lowry has been slightly more efficient according to this model.  Ray is the only other player with a +3.00 or better efficiency rating.  The difference here is that Nova has lots of players in the +2.00 to +3.00 range, all of whom play significant minutes (Sheridan, Fraser, Cunningham).

The talent is top-heavy on Florida, while Nova is more balanced.  But on the whole, it looks a bit like Florida has the better individual players by a slight nod in this ratings model.

Keep in mind, individual defense is almost always undervalued in this ratings system, because it is derived solely from boxscore statistics.

Efficiency Analysis

Villanova

Florida
  • NOVA plays at an average tempo, with an outstanding offense (#6) and defense (#13)
  • NOVA's offense is anchored by its #5-rated ability to avoid TO's, along with a solid job of OREB (#62) and using the FT line (#73).
  • On defense, NOVA lets opponents get to the line a bit too often (#184) but does a pretty decent job of everything else ... not spectacular though.  Somehow it all comes together into a very effective defense.
  • Interestingly, NOVA is #12 at blocking opponents, but gets blocked very often itself (#322)
  • NOVA gets assists on baskets much less often than average (#280)
  • Foye ranks #63 in % of team's possessions used, #28 in % of shots taken, and #83 in fewest TO's per possession
  • Ray ranks #41 in % of shots taken and #92 in fewest TO's per possession
  • Lowry ranks #65 in FT rate and #30 in STL rate
  • UF plays at a slightly above-average pace, with an outstanding offense (#12) and defense (#11)
  • UF's excellent offense is keyed by its strong eFG% (#3) and ability to use the FT line (#31).
  • Similarly, on defense, UF's strengths are at holding opponents' shooting down (#34) and keeping them off the freethrow line (#42), but they are also good at forcing TO's (#74) and preventing OREB (#82)
  • UF does an excellent job at the blocking game, ranking #17 at blocking opponents and #50 at avoiding blocks
  • Humphrey ranks #6 in eFG%
  • Horford ranks #29 in eFG%, #44 in % of DREB's grabbed, and #87 in BLK rate
  • Noah ranks #96 in % of DREB's grabbed and #33 in BLK rate
  • Brewer ranks #87 in STL rate
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, NOVA rarely uses 2FG's, while its opponents somewhat favor 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's.
  • On offense, UF relies a bit less than average on 2FG's, while its opponents rarely use FT's.

Efficiency Strengths and Weaknesses Translated Into Advantages

Explanation of Terms

Clear Advantage for Villanova No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for Florida
  Florida TO rate  
  Villanova TO rate  
  Villanova 3pt FG%  
  Florida OREB  
  Florida % Poss Blocked by Opp  
  Villanova OREB  
  Villanova FT%  
  Florida FT%  
  Villanova Points Per Possession  
  Florida Points Per Possession  
  Villanova FT Rate  
  Florida eFG%  
  Florida 2pt FG%  
    Florida Strength - Villanova eFG%
    Florida Strength - Florida 3pt FG%
    Florida Strength - Florida FT Rate
    Florida Strength - Villanova 2pt FG%
    Florida Strength - Villanova % Poss Blocked by Opp
  • Villanova will take above avg # of 3FG's
  • Villanova will have below avg % of FG's assisted
  • Florida will take above avg # of 3FG's
  • Florida will have above avg % of FG's assisted
  • Expect average-paced game

Game Outlook

A few things we should expect:

  • Both teams will take plenty of 3FG's
  • NOVA should get blocked a lot
  • NOVA will likely struggle to shoot a high percentage
  • UF will get score plenty from the FT line
  • NOVA may have an advantage in TO's

Florida is playing unbelievably well right now.  Noah and Horford are a formidable duo, but then Nova can play with anybody.  The matchups (efficiency analysis) seem to favor Florida a bit.  That, combined with the slight edge in player talent, make Florida the likely favorite based on this analysis.

In a game where both sides shoot lots of 3FG's, whether those fall becomes a huge factor.  So, nothing is certain here.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Florida wins 72-71.

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
3-pt shootout can swing results either way Either team with a 10% advantage in 3-pt percentage    
Nova's best chance may be to win the TO game UF to commit at least 40% more TO's than NOVA    
Nova must contain the strong inside attack of Noah and Horford Noah and Horford to combine for no more than 25 points and 15 rebounds.    


Sports and Numbers Newsletter - sign up here
Get notified of updates to the site. Some features written exclusively for newsletter.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy