Preview: UCLA vs Florida

April 3, 2006

UCLA (2) vs Florida (3) - NCAA Tournament 2006

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of Ratings

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Obviously, with two loaded teams playing their best ball, there is no shortage of talent in this game.  There are excellent performers on both sides, although Florida's Noah stands head-and-shoulders above the rest in terms of overall season contributions and efficiency at doing so (cPSAN70).

Noah and Horford form possibly the most powerful duo in the country.  Both have performed more efficiently than any UCLA player, despite the Bruins' most impressive credentials of Mbah a Moute and Mata.

The edge to overall player talent here goes to Florida by a slight margin.  Whereas the Gators' talent is concentrated very heavily in Noah and Horford, with five players rated +3.00 or better in cPSAN70, the Bruins sport six players rated above +3.00.  Give the quality depth advantage to UCLA by a slight margin.

Both teams sport lower-rated players who have the ability to really change the flow of the game.  UCLA's Farmar uses up an unusually high percentage of his team's possessions, so whether he does that in a good or bad way is key to their performance.  For Florida, Green is also a playmaker with the ability to shoot 3FG's (39%).  On the balance, his contributions have not added up as well as his teammates, but he has the ability to really change the game.  Brewer is also another sharpshooter for the Gators, but his overall rating puts him on solid ground.  His shooting can take the game over, too.  Just ask George Mason.

Efficiency Strengths and Weaknesses Translated Into Advantages

Explanation of Terms

• Florida will take below avg % of 3FG's
• Florida will have below avg % of FG's assisted
• Florida plays faster tempo than UCLA

Game Outlook

A few things we should expect:

• Both teams may commit lots of TO's, but UCLA will most likely commit more
• UF will make better use of the freethrow line
• UCLA may struggle shooting 3FG's
• UCLA should have a slight advantage on the boards
• UF may have an advantage in blocks

Factors that contribute to efficiency (points per possession) mostly seem to tip in Florida's favor.  The fact that UCLA will likely commit more TO's, use the FT line less effectively, and struggle shooting from the perimeter will all make it difficult for the Bruins to keep pace with Florida.  The saving grace for UCLA may be its ability to rebound more effectively and keep their possessions alive (though this is not a clear advantage for them).  And even though UCLA may struggle from the perimeter, it's not as clear a trend as the others.  The burden will be on Farmar, Afflalo, and company to have a big perimeter shooting night.

The other issue that will be key is which team's "X factor" player has a bigger game ... UCLA's Farmar or Florida's Green?  Both players had good games in the semifinals.  But Florida's offense will flow through its inside players and won't concentrate on the 3FG unless it falls behind.  Farmar is more likely to have a big game there.

There is no clear-cut choice, however.  And ultimately, the biggest determining factor in a game between two heavyweights is simply who brings their best game to the table.  If both decide to bring their "A" games, we should see Florida prevail in a close one.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Florida wins 65-61.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy