Preview: Texas vs LSU

March 25, 2006

Texas (2) vs LSU (4) - NCAA Tournament 2006

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of Ratings

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

This is a fascinating matchup.  LSU is incredibly talented at the top of its lineup, with Thomas and Davis each having impressive cPSAN70 ratings.  This indicates that they really contribute positively on a per-possession basis.  Similarly, Aldridge brings a seriously impressive rating, with Tucker adding a solid one as well.  The issue, however, will be whether this ability to play well "per-possession" will translate into more total impact (cPSAN).

Thomas averages only about 26 minutes per game for LSU.  That may be because even in those few minutes, he averages 2.5 fouls per game.  Davis averages 32 minutes per game.  Sure, Thomas and Davis are monsters in terms of their contributions, but if either plays limited minutes due to foul trouble, then their supposed efficiency advantages can't be realized.  That's why you see Aldridge having a greater "total impact" (cPSAN) rating than any of the LSU players, simply because he's played more minutes at a still-impressive efficiency rate.

After the top two players on each team, both teams have a very solid player.  LSU has Darrel Mitchell, and Texas boasts Brad Buckman.  Both have showed excellent ability to contribute, although Mitchell has contributed much more overall "total impact" due to more minutes played.

The problem for LSU is that the players with the most playing time haven't been its best-performing players.  Garrett Temple (played all 40 minutes vs Duke) has an overall negative rating.  Clearly, he must be adding significant contributions that just can't be captured by the boxscore.  Temple struggles mightily with his shooting.  Tasmin Mitchell is the second-highest in terms of playing time, and his rating is somewhat mediocre (+2.38).  Tasmin struggles with the 3-ball and has way too many TO's.

Texas has some players with lower ratings (Abrams) who can often take over a game with streaky shooting.  But the bulk of their minutes truly come from their most gifted players.

Efficiency Strengths and Weaknesses Translated Into Advantages

Explanation of Terms

• Texas will have below avg # of FG's assisted
• LSU will take below avg # of 3FG's
• LSU will have above avg % of FG's assisted
• LSU plays faster tempo than Texas

Game Outlook

A few things we should expect:

• LSU should get blocked a lot
• LSU won't shoot the ball very well
• Texas won't take many freethrows

This is really a great matchup.  Both teams are beasts on the boards, and it's one of the reasons that each has a stellar defense.  The battle on the boards may be one of the big determining factors in this game.  Texas may predominantly use a zone defense to combat LSU's inside strength, which will force LSU to go against its tendencies and shoot more 3FG's.  If LSU doesn't hit a decent percentage from outside, it could be a long night for the Tigers.  LSU's most efficient players must be on the court long enough to make a difference.  Thomas and Davis must stay out of foul trouble to rebound effectively and provide the inside threat to keep this game close.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Texas wins 68-66.

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