Preview: Memphis vs UCLA

March 25, 2006

Memphis (1) vs UCLA (2) - NCAA Tournament 2006

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of Ratings

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

What an assemblage of talent there will be on the court!  The most effective and accomplished player should be Mbah a Moute, who has the highest efficiency (cPSAN70) and total impact (cPSAN) of any player in the game.  But down the line, both teams are filled with talented contributors.

Memphis has a very balanced attack, with no player averaging more than 27 minutes per game.  Though Dorsey only averages 7 ppg, the man is unbelievably efficient, contributing 7.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in limited playing time.  The greatest impact on the team has been from Carney.  He's the leading scorer, plays the most minutes, and is the #1 3-pt gunner on a team chock full of them.  Shawne Williams, Dozier, and Anderson round out the rest of the Memphis players who have solid efficiency ratings and also have had significant total impact.  Douglas-Roberts and Washington have both had significant impact on the season (cPSAN ratings over 40), but they aren't playing terribly efficiently.  Both players turn the ball over way too often, which on a high-octane offense like Memphis has, means they are penalizing their team heavily.

UCLA counters with possibly the most impactful player in Mbah a Moute.  But the supporting cast for UCLA is a little harder to define.  Mata has not been playing significant minutes since his return, so he may not be much of a factor.  Afflalo is the next significant contributor after Mbah a Moute.  Afflalo is a dangerous perimeter shooter who could easily make 4, 5, or 6 three-pointers in the game.  He struggles a bit with TO's, but his main function is to shoot and score, which he does very well for the Bruins.

Hollins and Bozeman are solid players for the Bruins also, playing both efficiently and enough to make significant total impact.  Both shoot extremely effectively, but Hollins struggles with fouls.

Farmar is an intriguing player for UCLA.  He cannot be overlooked because he uses up 31% of the team's possessions, meaning that he's involved in possession-ending plays (shots, rebounds, turnovers, steals) unusually often.  The problem is that he averages almost 4 TO's per game, and his shooting is not the most effective (eFG% of 49.5).  So, what Farmar brings to the table is a player who makes tons of plays that ultimately result in a reasonably positive impact on the game.  But if his game is off, he stands to hurt the Bruins more than any other player.  If his game is on, he could be easily be the star.  That makes his performance one of the keys to the game.

Efficiency Strengths and Weaknesses Translated Into Advantages

Explanation of Terms

• Memphis will take above avg # of 3FG's
• Memphis will have below avg # of FG's assisted
• UCLA will take above avg # of 3FG's
• Memphis plays faster tempo than UCLA

Game Outlook

A few things we should expect:

• UCLA will commit plenty of TO's
• UCLA won't shoot well from the perimeter
• UCLA will get to the line very frequently
• Both teams will take a high % of their shots from behind the arc

If, as statistics predict, UCLA is to get to the line very frequently, it implies that UM could be in some foul trouble this game.  The Memphis players averaging the highest # of fouls per game are Dorsey (easily the most) and S. Williams.  Carney is next-highest but not much more than the rest of the pack.  If that pattern were to hold true, it would be unfortunate for Memphis, since those are the three most efficient players on the team.

The Bruins will likely take many 3FG's and miss a lot of them, however.  Additionally, if UCLA commits more TO's, that will get UM's running game going.  UM is more comfortable in the fast-paced setting, and may be able to streak out to a lead that is difficult for UCLA to overcome with FT shooting and a lack of 3-pt shooting.  Afflalo and Farmar better have brought their "A" games, especially with respect to 3-pt shooting, if UCLA is to win this game.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: UCLA wins 73-71.

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