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Preview: Ohio State at North Carolina

November 29, 2006

Ohio State at North Carolina (Chapel Hill, NC)

  Ohio State North Carolina

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 6-0 4-1
Sagarin Power Ranking 6 9
Pomeroy Pythagorean Rating 4 13
RPI
(not a good judge of strength, only used for rough estimate of strength of opponent)		 9 51
Best games this season (Pyth. Rating) vs Kent State (#36) W 81-59 vs Winthrop (#17) W 73-66

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers   Win 82-75
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)   Win by 4.5
Analysis of Variance
(Uses level and consistency of team performance - power ratings - still not very accurate until all NCAA teams are 'connected')		   65.4% chance of victory
Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted Prediction Win 78-76  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Ohio State

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Mark Titus* 10.77 1.94
Daequan Cook 6.48 23.50
Othello Hunter 5.69 19.33
Mike Conley 5.39 22.33
Ron Lewis 4.29 18.66
Ivan Harris 4.02 13.24
Matt Terwilliger 2.00 5.70
Jamar Butler 1.31 6.27
David Lighty 0.16 0.66
Danny Peters* -16.85 -3.03

* Rating not based on enough data.

North Carolina

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

 
 
PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Mike Copeland* 32.24 2.76
Tyler Hansbrough 6.96 29.05
Danny Green 5.26 7.06
Brandan Wright 5.10 20.26
Ty Lawson 3.83 10.93
Surry Wood* 3.23 0.37
Reyshawn Terry 2.86 8.32
Bobby Frasor 2.19 5.82
Marcus Ginyard 1.64 3.75
Wayne Ellington 1.40 4.84
Alex Stepheson* 0.68 0.49
Wes Miller 0.44 0.93
Deon Thompson -0.70 -0.84
Quentin Thomas* -0.81 -0.46
Dewey Burke* -9.42 -1.08

* Rating not based on enough data.
 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Ohio State appears to have its contributions spread out evenly among its Top 5, with Cook and Conley leading the way.  North Carolina, on the other hand, appears to be somewhat top-heavy in its contributors.  Hansbrough and Wright are runaway leaders in total contributions for the season, while Danny Green is right up there in terms of efficiency.

From the ratings above, it would appear UNC has a depth advantage overall.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics

Ohio State

North Carolina
  • OSU has the #20 offense and #8 defense
  • OSU ranks #8 in eFG% (#12 in 2FG%)
  • OSU is #2 in minimizing opponents' use of the FT line
  • OSU is in the Top 40 in blocks and steals % on both sides of the ball
  • UNC has the #10 offense and #45 defense
  • UNC ranks #22 in offensive rebounding
  • UNC is #7 at minimizing opponents' use of the FT line
  • UNC is #20 in 2FG%
  • UNC ranks only #247 in forcing opponent TO's
  • Essentially every category has poor ranking, except FT% (#75) and opponent's % of FG's that are assisted (#43)
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, OSU relies heavily on 3FG's at the expense of FT's, while its opponents rely heavily on 2FG's at the expense of FT's.
  • On offense, UNC relies heavily on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents rely extraordinarily heavily on 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

 

Clear Advantage for Ohio State No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for North Carolina
Ohio State Strength - Ohio State 3pt FG%    
Ohio State TO rate    
Ohio State Strength - Ohio State % Poss Blocked by Opp    
Ohio State Strength - North Carolina 3pt FG%    
Ohio State Strength - Ohio State % Poss STL by Opp    
Ohio State Strength - Ohio State eFG%    
  North Carolina % Poss STL by Opp  
  North Carolina FT Rate  
  North Carolina TO rate  
  North Carolina % Poss Blocked by Opp  
  Ohio State Points Per Possession  
  North Carolina FT%  
  Ohio State 2pt FG%  
  North Carolina eFG%  
  North Carolina Points Per Possession  
  Ohio State OREB  
  North Carolina 2pt FG%  
  North Carolina OREB  
  Ohio State FT%  
    North Carolina Strength - Ohio State FT Rate
Ohio State will take above avg % of 3FG's
Ohio State will have above avg % of FG's assisted
North Carolina plays faster tempo than Ohio State

 

Game Outlook

Obviously, this is a heavyweight matchup.  Both teams are loaded with talent.  The strengths and weaknesses analysis isn't incredibly accurate yet, but here's what it indicates might be expected in this game:

  • OSU should take and make a lot of 3-pointers, and they won't get to the FT line much
  • Chances are that OSU will win the ball control game
  • UNC may struggle shooting the three
  • UNC will try to push the tempo

North Carolina has to be considered the favorite on their home floor and pumped up against a team rated #1 in one of the polls.  If both teams exhibit the same strengths and weaknesses they have thus far, then the keys to the game below will probably decide the game.  This early in the season, identities are still being formed, so what actually happens may not resemble what the teams have done to date.  This game may just boil down to who wants it more and a little luck.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: North Carolina wins 84-79.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
OSU is going to shot a lot of 3FG's, so if they shoot them extremely well or poorly, the game could turn OSU to shoot either <30% or >40% on 3FG's    
UNC's depth could wear down OSU's 8-man rotation in an uptempo game Tempo >78 possessions  (calculated for each team as FGA - OReb + TO + 0.44*FTA)    


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