Kansas College Basketball Season Preview 2006-07

Game Impact (cPSAN) 2005-06 Season Trends Improvement Index -0.20 (Game-to-Game) -0.17 (3-gm Moving Avg) Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening. "Game-to-Game" does this using each game # and the corresponding player performance. "3-gm Moving Avg" does this using each game # and the average player performance over the 3 most recent games.  This helps iron out game-to-game variations in case they are masking a true overall trend. Consistency Index -0.05 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa. Game-by-Game Ratings This is a chart showing the impact the player made on each game last season, using the cPSAN score.  The cPSAN does adjust for the quality of the opponent, but unlike the cPSAN70, does not adjust for playing time.  The rationale for using this rating is that I wanted to measure the player's impact each individual game as the season progresses, not just how well he uses the time he's on court.  For my overall season ratings (ePSAN70), I like to adjust for playing time so we're comparing fairly.  So, don't be confused if a player's ratings on the chart below don't match his ePSAN70 rating above ... one adjusts for playing time, and the other doesn't.

Analysis

Sasha Kaun was one of the most efficient players on the team.  There, I said it.  Not sure if too many people believe it, but it's really quite impressive what he did with the limited playing time he had.  Aside from the AST, he had Julian Wright-like numbers in most every other category in the same amount of playing time and with fewer turnovers.  It's deceiving because when observing Sasha play, one sees the many mental errors he makes.  He shoots the ball in the general area of the basket without looking to see where it is, or he isn't in the right spot.  Whereas, with someone like Julian Wright, you feel he's ahead of the game, seeing things that others don't ... only a matter of time before Julian becomes a superstar.

Looking purely at the numerical results, Kaun has performed quite well.  124th in the nation in O-Reb%, #286 in D-Reb%, #18 in fewest TO's per possession, and #136 in blocks per possession.  If he could hit his freethrows and stay out of foul trouble, he'd be a star.

Last season, his improvement index was only -0.20, meaning he generally impacted games less as the season progressed.  But part of that is due to two unusually high impact scores early in the season, especially Game 1.  He's generally been around the same level other than that.  That's unfortunate, because you'd expect someone who picked up the game merely 5 or so years ago to be improving more rapidly.  In any event, his season was very solid, very efficient.  With another offseason of competition against the deep KU frontcourt teammates, Kaun could be poised for even better things ahead.

What KU Fans Say

Comments from KUSports.com Message Board:

• POLL: How would you classify Kaun's role on the 2006-07 team?
  
  15% = Star player
  38% = Major contributor
  31% = Strong supporting role
  15% = Support role
   
• With our depth at the position, and the skill level at the other positions, I saa Sasha as strictly "support" at best. If he does more than that, GREAT! But that probably means someone else is not shining the way we had hoped.
• haven't been impressed with him really. He shoots a decent percent because all his shots are from 2 feet. I see him as a role player. He's a physical person down low and its needed but the team is going to be Rush/Mario/Russ/Wright. If we get another to step up great. I just don't see it being Kaun.
• You didn't see an improvement from his Freshman to Sophomore campaigns? If you didn't then I'm not sure you were watching the same Sasha Kaun.
• I think Sasha is doing fine. IMO, it's reasonable, assuming he gets the same playing time, for him to average 10 pts., 2-3 OR, 4-5 DR, and a couple of blocks. We have plenty of scorers. All he has to do is make a living off missed shots/dishes in the paint, make the point blank baskets, and hit above 60% from the line. Nothing fancy. If he plays in the NBA, that's what he'll be doing anyway.
• He had moments last season that I really liked his game. I'd like to see him about 10 lbs. heavier than last year and start pushing his weight around more. I can see him as being a real beast on defense and the boards by his senior season if he keeps improving at his current rate. I certainly don't see Giles taking his spot and, unless we go to a smaller lineup, he's our starting center for the forseeable future. Comparing his stats to the previous year, even accounting for minutes, he's doing well, except for blocked shots. It's wishful thinking on my part to expect him to improve much in that area, which is why I see no reason for him to put on some more muscle so he can own the boards. I sure would love it if he would play with the fire and purpose that Pollard did.
• Unreasonable expectations aside, SK is right on schedule as far as his development is concerned. Especially if you consider the fact that he did not play organized ball until his sophmore year of HS.
• I've said it once and will say it again...  We'll be sorry to see him graduate. He'll be a helluva a player by his senior season.

Comments from Phog.net (Scout)  Message Board:

• Sasha improved as much or more than any player I can ever remember betwenn Fr and Soph. seasons, so he is getting better fast despite the low #. two types of improvement, I guess...between season and within season improvement.  His score that indicates he didn't improve much over the course of the season may be unfairly low due to the big game or 2 he had early, but still, from a qualitative standpoint, I would agree...it seemed to me he kind of disappeared after a strong start.
• Sasha will be a significant contributor this year. Not on offense, since that's not where his contribution will be needed most.. I think he'll be good on the boards, and should be a defensive presence.  I don't think Kahn will ever be a "star" because he simply doesn't have the quickness required to be an "impact" player. That said, I want to go on record as being a fan that doesn't think every KU player is, or needs to be a star.
• If he can manage to catch a few passes from Sherron and Julian he will get more than his share of easy dunks. Out of the three junior bigs, he was the most reliable last year at doing that. Also, he can run the floor very well for his size. I would not dismiss his offensive output so quickly.
• Didn't Sasha seem to get gassed pretty quickly last year? A couple minutes into a game during a free through attempt the tv would sometimes show Sasha leaning over gasping for air. I hope his stamina increases this year.
• Sasha's value comes from what he doesn't do: turn the ball over, foul, or miss dunks. I'm a big fan of Sasha's, but until he can make free throws he will never play more than 22-25 minutes a game. So, he'll never play more than 22-25 minutes a game.
• I remember the pass bouncing off of his knuckles most every time after the quick pass. He gets caught watching the action and looks like a deer in headlights when the ball is dumped off to him.
• That statistic [low turnovers per possession] tells you two things: (1) the team learned not to throw him the ball very often, and (2) the official scorer does not consider turning and throwing the ball in the general vicinity of the backboard with your eyes closed to be a turnover, although he probably should.
• This is the reason I like Sasha so much. I don't have to worry about Sasha screwing up a game for us. He might not single-handedly win games for us, but he's rarely a negative contribution.  Kaun's hand-eye cordination has never been a problem. It's why he's able to play D-1 basketball at a high level with such little experience (well, that and being 6'11"). People talk about how Giles is a freak and insanely athletic, but compare the two and Giles is the less reliable, stone-handed player.

Comments from The Slant (Rivals)

• POLL: How would you classify Kaun's role on the 2006-07 team?
  
  10% = Star player
  48% = Major contributor
  33% = Strong supporting role
  9% = Support role
   
• Major Contributor in the middle. He's big, let him be physical and beat on anyone that comes into the paint!!! At 8 - 10 points a game, plus 10 - 12 boards, he will be a major contributor.
• It trully pains me to see how some on the boards rate KAun a disapointment. Outside of his free throws he has been a legit bigman for KU. His catches and handling of the ball in the physical play of the five has been good. Although he needs to look at the rim more before the shot he has a good fg%. His rbs per minute played is good. As for his reported "fouling excess" I think it is better that he be agressive on defence as for once KU has had depth at the 5. I think all three of the centers should show agression on defense, it points out the depth in a major way to the opposition. I never liked the passive way of just extending the arms straight up and never leaving the floor. It seemed to never result in stopping a basket and half of the time a foul gets called anyway. By having 15 fouls the opposing centers should know that their shots are going to be contested and never will they be given a free basket. If KAun gets into the mid 60s FT% he can be everything we said we wanted at the center position.

Outlook for 2006-07 Season

Look for upcoming features to discuss this player's potential role on the team this season.

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