Kansas College Basketball Season Preview 2006-07

Game Impact (cPSAN) 2005-06 Season Trends Improvement Index +0.33 (Game-to-Game) +0.50 (3-gm Moving Avg) Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening. "Game-to-Game" does this using each game # and the corresponding player performance. "3-gm Moving Avg" does this using each game # and the average player performance over the 3 most recent games.  This helps iron out game-to-game variations in case they are masking a true overall trend. Consistency Index +0.04 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa. Game-by-Game Ratings This is a chart showing the impact the player made on each game last season, using the cPSAN score.  The cPSAN does adjust for the quality of the opponent, but unlike the cPSAN70, does not adjust for playing time.  The rationale for using this rating is that I wanted to measure the player's impact each individual game as the season progresses, not just how well he uses the time he's on court.  For my overall season ratings (ePSAN70), I like to adjust for playing time so we're comparing fairly.  So, don't be confused if a player's ratings on the chart below don't match his ePSAN70 rating above ... one adjusts for playing time, and the other doesn't.

Analysis

A lot of people were worried about Russell Robinson after his freshman season.  Russell Robinson was one of them.  He decided to dedicate himself during the offseason to getting better and developing the confidence to lead KU back to the top of the basketball world.  Last season, all that hard work paid off.  Once the backcourt settled into a comfortable rotation with Russell as the point man, things really started to heat up for the Jayhawks.  Robinson was seen by many as the steadying influence on the team.  By season's end, he proved himself to be one of the strongest players on a dynamic, young team.

Not only did Robinson work hard during the offseason, he also worked throughout the season to improve, as evidenced by his positive improvement index rating.  After a couple of shaky early outings (Arizona, Nevada), he started a string of mostly solid performances.  His high points in terms of game impact appear to have been at Texas A&M and at Nebraska.

If only Russell could improve his shooting touch, his performance would go from solid to spectacular.  Every team needs the solid contributor though, and perhaps that's what his legacy will be when all is said and done.  But looking at his shooting numbers, I can't help but cringe.  But one of the things that's hard to quantify is that many of his shot misses are on penetration moves to the basket, which often draw defenders toward him allowing KU to get the offensive rebound.  Many times it resulted in freethrow opportunities (rated #217 in nation in rate of FT's).  Other times, of course, they end with Russell on his rear end watching the opponent take the ball away.  But enough about his only major flaw.  Russell gets the job done with the ball and on the ball.  The only reason he isn't known more for his stealing is that Mario Chalmers is perhaps the best in the country.

And if you're talking about MVP honors, think about this.  If you take all the numbers and adjust for quality of opponent and give more weight to recent games, guess who's had the 2nd most positive impact on the team this season (ePSAN)?  Russell Robinson.  It's only after adjusting for playing time (ePSAN70) that he drops a bit.  As the season developed, the numbers argue that hardly anyone made a bigger overall impact than Russell Robinson.

And in case anyone's keeping track of the backcourt numbers competition between Robinson and Chalmers ... Robinson is #126 in the country in assists per possession, and an amazing #11 in steals per possession.

What KU Fans Say

Comments from KUSports.com Message Board:

• POLL: Who will play most at point guard this season?
  
  61% = Russell Robinson
  15% = Mario Chalmers
  12% = Sherron Collins
  12% = Split among multiple players
   
• RussRob is the true heart and soul of this team. We go as he goes!
• While I think eventually Collins might be the better PG you can't take the heart of the team off the court. Russ will get most of it.
• Collins will never start over Russell at point guard. In my opinion, we won when Russell played well and lost when he struggled.
• Russ is our PG designate, but I think as the season progresses the playing time at that spot will evolve into a split situation, preferential to the situation at hand. SC appears to have a more consistant offensive threat. If the opposition is not especially tough to defend, SC might get more minutes in that situation. If defense is the key, Russ is our man. Mario can do anything, and do it commendably well.I could go on, but the short answer is that I suspect we will see split time at the PG slot.
• RR quietly became my favorite player last year. Never complains about anything, just goes out and works his @ss off for it. He plays great defense and smart offense. He leads by example and doing so has certainly earned him my respect. I personally don't see S. Collins starting any games this year, getting quality minutes, yes, starting no way.
• There is no doubt that robinson will get all the starts and the majority of the pt. His grasp of your offence and the game in general is too much for a freshman to catch up to.

Comments from Phog.net (Scout)  Message Board:

• Though he's not my favorite player, i do respect what he did given the role he was asked to play last season.
• I'm wondering how much his game will improve for this coming season - if he has to force his shot a little less, maybe his FG% will go up.
• It's not just forcing the shot, it's finishing good shots. How many times last year did he beat his man, make a great move to the basket and miss the chippy?  I don't know how you work on something like that because clearly he can make the lay-up. Hope it was just a quirky thing.
• Over 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio is pretty good, especially when he averaged more steals than turnovers.  He does need to get better at finishing around the basket, obviously.
• One of the problems RR had driving was that the team just watched him instead of getting in position to get the pass as he drove. Once RR got under the basket and saw no one was open there was nothing left to do but throw up an off balance shot. Miles had a couple of solid big men that were in position to get the easy bucket when defenses collapsed on him.

Comments from The Slant (Rivals)

• POLL: Who will play most of the point guard minutes this season?
  
  74% = Russell Robinson
  21% = Split among multiple players
  5% = Mario Chalmers
  0% = Sherron Collins

Outlook for 2006-07 Season

Look for upcoming features to discuss this player's potential role on the team this season.

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