Kansas College Basketball Season Preview 2006-07

Game Impact (cPSAN) 2005-06 Season Trends Improvement Index +0.50 (Game-to-Game) +0.74 (3-gm Moving Avg) Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening. "Game-to-Game" does this using each game # and the corresponding player performance. "3-gm Moving Avg" does this using each game # and the average player performance over the 3 most recent games.  This helps iron out game-to-game variations in case they are masking a true overall trend. Consistency Index +0.33 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa. Game-by-Game Ratings This is a chart showing the impact the player made on each game last season, using the cPSAN score.  The cPSAN does adjust for the quality of the opponent, but unlike the cPSAN70, does not adjust for playing time.  The rationale for using this rating is that I wanted to measure the player's impact each individual game as the season progresses, not just how well he uses the time he's on court.  For my overall season ratings (ePSAN70), I like to adjust for playing time so we're comparing fairly.  So, don't be confused if a player's ratings on the chart below don't match his ePSAN70 rating above ... one adjusts for playing time, and the other doesn't.

Analysis

If you ask me who the MVP was last season, I'd argue it was Mario Chalmers.  No one was playing better at the end of the season.  From Game #10 onward, Mario had only one game with a negative impact rating, and that was the amazing comeback victory over Oklahoma at Allen Fieldhouse, in which Mario played a major role at the end.  That's an example of how boxscores can't convey the whole story, and how timing is just as important as totals.

Chalmers had a significantly positive improvement index and consistency index.  That means he got better as the season went along, and his game-to-game variability in performance was smaller than usual.  Looking at the graph above, you can see that.  He has runs of a few games where his impact is about the same, and then it changes significantly.  Most other players on the team have big ups and downs, often one game right after another.

One of the reasons Chalmers comes in with such a sparkling ePSAN70 score is that it weighs recent games more heavily.  And looking at several early-season games would have made most people wonder why Self ever recruited Mario.  But he really came on strong down the stretch, with great shooting, passing, and defensive pressure.  His perimeter shooting really picked up toward the end of the season, allowing him to finish at a respectable 37.5% from 3FG.  Considering that he started in the mid-20% early in the season, he really shot well down the stretch.

Mario finished the season ranked #1 in the nation in steals per possession (5.5% rate).  His overall shooting eFG% was 53.3% (#371 in country), and he rated #27 in the country in assists per possession.  I'd say that's a stellar freshman season ... stellar season, period.

Outlook for 2006-07 Season

Look for upcoming features to discuss this player's potential role on the team this season.

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