Kansas College Basketball Season Preview 2006-07

Game Impact (cPSAN) 2005-06 Season Trends Improvement Index +0.22 (Game-to-Game) +0.31 (3-gm Moving Avg) Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening. "Game-to-Game" does this using each game # and the corresponding player performance. "3-gm Moving Avg" does this using each game # and the average player performance over the 3 most recent games.  This helps iron out game-to-game variations in case they are masking a true overall trend. Consistency Index +0.01 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa. Game-by-Game Ratings This is a chart showing the impact the player made on each game last season, using the cPSAN score.  The cPSAN does adjust for the quality of the opponent, but unlike the cPSAN70, does not adjust for playing time.  The rationale for using this rating is that I wanted to measure the player's impact each individual game as the season progresses, not just how well he uses the time he's on court.  For my overall season ratings (ePSAN70), I like to adjust for playing time so we're comparing fairly.  So, don't be confused if a player's ratings on the chart below don't match his ePSAN70 rating above ... one adjusts for playing time, and the other doesn't.

Analysis

This is what you like to see in a blue-chip recruit's freshman season.  You don't necessarily expect a ton of consistency (his index was about zero, so his game-to-game pattern was random), but you want to see improvement.  And that was quite clear with Julian's season.  All of his games with cPSAN of over +4.00 occurred about the 2nd half of the season.  His crowning moment was probably the victory over Texas in the conference tournament championship.

For some perspective on just how efficiently Wright plays, take a look at his minutes per game ... only twenty.  Now the 8.5 pts, 4.5 rebounds, nearly 2 AST, and 1.3 BLK per game look even more impressive.  Meanwhile, he shoots a very high percentage from the field.  It should come as no surprise that Julian averaged much more playing time in the 2nd half of the season (around 25-30 min/g), when KU was surging.

Wright was #404 in the country in % of O-Reb earned, #110 in blocks per possession, and a surprising #315 in steals per possession ... as a forward.

The only things that stand in the way of Wright and superstardom are his freethrow shooting and turnovers.  Even if those don't get way better, just playing the minutes he deserves will boost his numbers so significantly that he'll start getting consideration for All-American honors.  This could be a special season for Julian Wright.

What KU Fans Say

Comments from KUSports.com Message Board:

• POLL: What position will Julian Wright play mostly this season?
  
  56% = Split evenly between "3" and "4"
  32% = Power Forward ("4")
  12% = Small Forward ("3")

Comments from The Slant (Rivals)

• POLL: What position will Julian Wright play mostly this season?
  
  50% = Split evenly between "3" and "4"
  33% = Power Forward ("4")
  17% = Small Forward ("3")

Outlook for 2006-07 Season

Look for upcoming features to discuss this player's potential role on the team this season.

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