Kansas College Basketball Season Preview 2006-07

Game Impact (cPSAN) 2005-06 Season Trends Improvement Index -0.13 (Game-to-Game) -0.13 (3-gm Moving Avg) Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening.  Zero means essentially no correlation. "Game-to-Game" does this using each game # and the corresponding player performance. "3-gm Moving Avg" does this using each game # and the average player performance over the 3 most recent games.  This helps iron out game-to-game variations in case they are masking a true overall trend. Consistency Index +0.01 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa.  Zero means essentially no correlation. Game-by-Game Ratings This is a chart showing the impact the player made on each game last season, using the cPSAN score.  The cPSAN does adjust for the quality of the opponent, but unlike the cPSAN70, does not adjust for playing time.  The rationale for using this rating is that I wanted to measure the player's impact each individual game as the season progresses, not just how well he uses the time he's on court.  For my overall season ratings (ePSAN70), I like to adjust for playing time so we're comparing fairly.  So, don't be confused if a player's ratings on the chart below don't match his ePSAN70 rating above ... one adjusts for playing time, and the other doesn't.

Analysis

It was a good thing Darnell Jackson finally joined the team after the first 8 games of the season.  On a Kansas frontline with no consistently dominant inside force, Bill Self needed to have multiple options to pick from, hoping he'd find a good combination for each game.  Jackson turned out to be the right option on some days, and on days he wasn't the right go-to guy, his impact was never all that negative.  He never had a cPSAN score below about -2.00 (worst game at Texas, but who didn't stink that day?).

Yet, DJ had a slightly negative improvement index, meaning his impact slipped a bit overall as the season progressed.  And since KU improved as a team down the stretch, intuitively that means that DJ wasn't a contributing factor to that success.  Doesn't bode well for DJ's prospects considering that a big-shot freshman (Darrell Arthur) is in town for next season.

Although Jackson is known to be a bruiser (and he did have some great inside games), one of his most important attributes turned out to be something usually attributed to the little guys ... freethrow shooting.  DJ exhibited an almost feathery touch at the line, knocking in big freethrows in crunch time.  We'll see if he's even playing during crunch time this season.

What KU Fans Say

Comments from KUSports.com Message Board:

• POLL: Will Darnell Jackson be in the regular rotation this season?
  
  84% = Yes (45% Definitely, 39% Probably)
  15% = No (3% Definitely, 12% Probably)
   
• I think if DJ plays to his ability he could be our most valuable all round upper classman big guy.
• I see him fighting Arthur for back up minutes behind Wright early one the season and eventually being relegated to 3 PF/C of the bench. He's never really show those brilliant flashes like CJ/Sasha have.
• He will probably be no more than an awesome rotation option in case someone gets hampered/injured/disciplined. Right now, I see him as 5th in line for frontcourt spots, behind Wright, Giles, Kaun and Arthur. It will be a VERY volatile rotation early on, I believe, but he'll eventually get squeezed out of our 9-man.
• I wouldn't bank on him getting beat out by Giles. Unless CJ can get his act together, Darnell seems to fit the mold of what Self has historically liked in a post and will "demand" more time with his on-court performance.
• Jackson looked as good as Giles and [Darrel] Arthur hasn't proved anything yet.
• I think losing the opportunity to play in the first 9 games last year really hurt DJ in rotation standing. It seemed that his minutes were not what they might have been during the remainder of the season.  If Self is an equal opportunity employer, I believe we will see more of DJ this year, in relation to Giles and Kahn. Arthur throws a wrench in the works we hadn't exactly counted on, and may figure to keep DJ's overall minutes from growing.

Comments from Phog.net Message Board:

• Darnell seemed to have his shot blocked a lot when making a move in the low post. It's like he gets disoriented down on the block sometimes, finds himself out of position, and is then forced to throw up an akward shot, which sometimes gets blocked. He also has a lot of jumpers go in and out.
• The notion that Jackson is a "bruiser" is the myth. You are correct, however, that [KU fans] believing he is a bruiser, contrary to all evidence, is not. He has a fairly soft, mid-range jump shooting game.
• it's true that jackson tries to go mid-range quite a bit. drew gooden was a hell of a rebounder... but i don't think many would classify him as a bruiser, so that stat doesn't always hold up. jackson is most definitely built like a truck though, which is probably where the misconception comes from.

Outlook for 2006-07 Season

Look for upcoming features to discuss this player's potential role on the team this season.

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