Kansas College Basketball Season Preview 2006-07

Game Impact (cPSAN) 2005-06 Season Trends Improvement Index -0.20 (Game-to-Game) -0.26 (3-gm Moving Avg) Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening.  Zero means essentially no correlation. "Game-to-Game" does this using each game # and the corresponding player performance. "3-gm Moving Avg" does this using each game # and the average player performance over the 3 most recent games.  This helps iron out game-to-game variations in case they are masking a true overall trend. Consistency Index +0.07 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa.  Zero means essentially no correlation. Game-by-Game Ratings This is a chart showing the impact the player made on each game last season, using the cPSAN score.  The cPSAN does adjust for the quality of the opponent, but unlike the cPSAN70, does not adjust for playing time.  The rationale for using this rating is that I wanted to measure the player's impact each individual game as the season progresses, not just how well he uses the time he's on court.  For my overall season ratings (ePSAN70), I like to adjust for playing time so we're comparing fairly.  So, don't be confused if a player's ratings on the chart below don't match his ePSAN70 rating above ... one adjusts for playing time, and the other doesn't.

Analysis

By most conventional measures, Brandon Rush had an amazing freshman season.  Led the team in scoring and rebounding, while shooting lights out from behind the arc.  But look closer, and you'll find that not all was rosy.  Let me break it down using the PSAN system:

• If all games counted equally (i.e., don't weight recent games more heavily), and we didn't adjust for playing time but did adjust for quality of opponent, then we'd be measuring total impact on the season.  The cPSAN season rating does this.  And on this measure, Rush is actually a very close 2nd on the team.  But ...
  • Adjust for playing time (cPSAN70) ... and Rush drops to 4th
  • Also weight recent games more heavily (ePSAN70) ... and Rush is 7th.

So, it's not that Rush doesn't deserve MVP for how much he impacted the team.  Just that other very prominent players contributed more efficiently and still impacted the team quite a bit, and Brandon's game tailed off as the season came to a close.  I may go into this in future analyses.

Brandon's shining moment probably came against Kentucky (24 pts, 12 reb in a blowout victory), and he had a few other bright spots in the second half of the season.  But too often, he slipped off the face of the planet.  In 5 of his last 7 games, he impacted the game negatively or near neutral (cPSAN), scoring in single digits in 4 of those games.  Throughout it all, he was playing upwards of 35 minutes or so each game.

Rush had a -0.26 improvement index (using 3-game moving average).  Given KU's considerable improvement over the course of the season, it is troubling that the "MVP" of the team didn't improve during that time.  Rush's stellar 54.3 eFG% was good for #308 in the nation.

Make no mistake though, Rush had an excellent season.  Anytime a freshman averages over 30 minutes a game and leads the team in scoring and rebounding, you're dealing with someone special.  Hopefully, this season Brandon can avoid the downward drift in the second half of the season.

What KU Fans Say

Comments from KUSports.com Message Board:

• POLL: Will Brandon Rush lead the team in scoring this season?
  
  62% = Yes
  38% = No
   
• I think Brandon will grow into more of a leader, which can only help our cause.  Working out this offseason should help him find the stamina for our season, I hope.
• I expect Rush's numbers to fall a little bit and I expect to see increased production from Chalmers and most of all, Julian Wright.

Comments from Phog.net (Scout)  Message Board:

• In retrospect, I think a couple of things factor into Rush's slight decline in the late season.
  
  1. He was playing too many minutes. Downs wasn't stepping up to help, and we really didn't have anybody else who could cover the wing when Brandon went to the bench. When your third guard is Hawkins, it's not all bad but your options are limited. I expect that to change a little this season.
  
  2. Other teams were covering him better. He wasn't an unknown to begin with, but certainly opposing coaches could look at our stat line and see where most of our perimeter offense was coming from. They also knew that if you guarded BRush tightly he was going to have trouble going to his left.
  
  3. Brandon never did master the art of assertiveness. This is why I think it was a good decision for him to play another season of college ball. A guy with his ability should never be shy about attacking with the ball.
  
  What will help him more than anything this season will be that the focus will no longer be on him. Offensively we'll have more weapons, he'll have some help on the wing when we play 3 guards and with a true point guard in the lineup I think his shot selection might even see improvement.
   
• I always thought Brandon looked tired the last quarter of the season.

Comments from The Slant (Rivals)

• POLL: Will Brandon Rush lead the team in scoring this season?
  
  74% = Yes
  26% = No
   
• I agree for now [that Rush will lead in scoring] just because he's shown himself to be one of if not the best three point shooter on the team. But if Sasha can show improvement this year similar to the steps he made last year he could be the surprise dominant player on this year's squad.

Comments from KC Star:

• Stats are wonderful, but will Brandon Rush and everyone else at KU bother to play as a TEAM rather than attempting to polish their resumes for that basketball wasteland known as the NBA?

Outlook for 2006-07 Season

Look for upcoming features to discuss this player's potential role on the team this season.

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