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Recap: Towson at Kansas

November 20, 2006

Kansas 87 - Towson 61

 PSAN
Game Ratings

Who contributed most to this game
without adjusting for how good the opponent was?

Best for determining player of the game,
comparing performances in this game only, etc.

cPSAN
Comparative Game Ratings

PSAN Game Ratings ... adjusted for quality of opponent

Best for comparing a player's performance in this game to his (or other players') performances in a different game.

Player of the Game
Darrell Arthur

 

PLAYER PSAN
Darrell Arthur 11.13
Mario Chalmers 6.65
Julian Wright 5.24
Russell Robinson 4.16
Matt Kleinmann 1.55
Rodrick Stewart* 0.33
Jeremy Case 0.02
Darnell Jackson -0.11
Sherron Collins -0.81
Brady Morningstar* -0.92
Brandon Rush -1.22

 

PLAYER PSAN
S. Raboin 2.67
J. Pease* 1.50
T. Jackson* 1.17
M. Pratt* 1.11
H. Plack* -0.95
T. Breaux -1.87
T. Crossin -2.70
G. Neal -3.64
R. Coleman -5.44
C. Williams -5.63
R. Spruill -5.74
W. Tubbs -6.47

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darrell Arthur 10.09
Mario Chalmers 5.65
Julian Wright 4.16
Russell Robinson 2.93
Matt Kleinmann 1.16
Rodrick Stewart* 0.33
Jeremy Case -0.29
Darnell Jackson -0.65
Brady Morningstar* -0.92
Sherron Collins -1.62
Brandon Rush -2.22

 

PLAYER cPSAN
S. Raboin 3.91
T. Breaux 1.64
J. Pease* 1.50
T. Jackson* 1.17
M. Pratt* 1.11
T. Crossin -0.12
G. Neal -0.13
H. Plack* -0.95
W. Tubbs -2.95
C. Williams -3.35
R. Coleman -3.79
R. Spruill -3.98

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

My Observations

Those first eight or nine minutes sure felt eerily similar, didn't they?  What looked like Oral Roberts 2: Free Fall From Grace quickly turned into something Jayhawk fans would probably spell R-O-L-A-I-D-S.  Some things were addressed (freethrow shooting, defensive intensity and rotations), others slightly improved (fast breaks), and others still problematic (TO's).  The biggest thing was KU's ability to neutralize Gary Neal from doing anything substantial, while staying in any potential hot shooters' faces.  No way Towson was going to beat KU without a big game from Neal and/or hot 3-pt shooting.  When neither materialized, and KU started raining 3's ... hey, did you know apples are bigger than cherries?

 

Player Performance Analysis

Score a bunch in exhibition games, and they'll say it's because your opponents aren't even in your league.  Score 12 points in your freshman debut against weak competition, and you get some nodding heads.  Darrell Arthur has followed that with two straight games of scoring in the 20's and being KU's highest overall rated player in each game.  So, maybe a bunch of his 26 points against Towson came off great feeds from teammates and some stickbacks.  But when you score 48 points in two consecutive games, at the very least it means you have a knack for being in the right place at the right time.  Combine that with freakish athleticism, and DA stands poised to be KU's leading contributor this season.  One major caveat ... let's see how he plays against tough competition and whether he can maintain a level of consistency, both very important questions when considering the performance of freshmen.

I had predicted this to be Mario Chalmers' welcome-back party, and it sure felt like it.  He was creating havoc on defense, getting hot from the outside, and helping the fast break speed along.  Mario is back and should start making a push toward the top of the overall ratings soon.  One of the most important things Chalmers did this game was to avoid TO's (zero).  KU was operating very efficiently, and each TO was rather costly to the rating ... just look at Brandon Rush.

Julian Wright took a while to show up this game.  It almost looked like he was upset or despondent for a while, but he finally came around and did some good things.  He could have helped a lot more if more of his rebounds were on the offensive glass, but still he shot well from the field, had 2 BLK and 3 STL.  He did have 3 TO's and missed some freethrows.  KU will really have a tough time getting offensive rebounds if Julian takes too many mid-range jumpers when he's playing the 4 position.

Russell Robinson also had a strong game, particularly on defense (what else is new?).  With 5 STL (no typo), 8 AST, and only 2 TO's ... Russell basically keeps KU in control of the ball when he's in the game.  I can't think of too many easier ways to beat an opponent than to make sure they usually don't have the ball.  RR's Achilles heel (field-goal shooting) kept his rating down somewhat, in particular his 0-3 long-range performance.  Nonetheless, I'm sure he's as deserving of credit for this victory as pretty much any other KU player.

It was nice to see Jeremy Case back in action after pulling his groin before the season started.  He stepped in and promptly missed a 3-pt shot for old times sake, but he looked much more able to contribute in other ways.  In this game, he had 3 AST and 2 STL in just 8 minutes.  Once he hits a few 3FG's (just like he did at some points last season), he could be a good role player and important weapon when we need a timely 3FG.

Darnell Jackson would have had a decent rating if not for his 4 TO's.  Good shooting and a couple of blocked shots kept him around the "average" mark.  Sherron Collins is taking some time to get comfortable with the team.  At least this game, he didn't have two charging fouls and other TO's.  Although he didn't technically have any TO's, some of his unnecessarily-difficult circus shots were essentially TO's.  But it's clear that SC is the fast player on the court usually.  Once he actually knows how to harness that speed with the right control, great things will happen.  It's way too early to make real judgments about what kind of player he will be.

Finally, Brandon Rush ... I don't like that his numbers keep showing up at/near the bottom of my ratings so often.  It seemed like he had some fire early.  But two questionable fouls put that rarity to rest.  I had recently noted that Brandon didn't have more than 3 fouls in any game last season, so I thought maybe this would be the game where he'd "get his hands dirty" ... instead, he didn't have a single foul the rest of the way.  Not that fouls are good.  Just that aggressiveness in your "All-American" is good, and that usually comes with some fouls.  Rush made some tough shots (off-balance alley-oop and jumper) and nailed his only freethrows.  But he hardly had any rebounds and turned it over five times!  KU possessions were extremely valuable this game, and five times they were worthless because of a TO by Rush.  Without any STL or AST to show, it still was a lackluster performance.  The good news is that only Brandon and DJ were TO-prone this game.

For Towson, it was an off night for Gary Neal, in large part due to KU's team defense.  They essentially kept his performance to an average level, while inevitably some other players stepped up a bit ... notably, Raboin and Breaux.  But neither of those two provided the scoring punch Towson would have needed to come close in this game.  Instead, they did a good job on rebounds, steals, and shot efficiently.

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For Metric Result Edge (Comments)
KU must stop Neal's total scoring (direct + indirect) Neal's PTS + (Neal's AST x 2) to be no more than 30 He got only 19 KANSAS
Who wins the TO battle? Difference of 6 TO's between two teams TU had 6 more TO's KANSAS
Upset recipe almost always includes hot 3-pt shooting Towson to make at least 10 three-pointers TU made only 4 KANSAS


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