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Recap: Oral Roberts at Kansas

November 16, 2006

Oral Roberts 78 - Kansas 71

 PSAN
Game Ratings

Who contributed most to this game
without adjusting for how good the opponent was?

Best for determining player of the game,
comparing performances in this game only, etc.

cPSAN
Comparative Game Ratings

PSAN Game Ratings ... adjusted for quality of opponent

Best for comparing a player's performance in this game to his (or other players') performances in a different game.

Player of the Game
Marchello Vealy

 

PLAYER PSAN
Darrell Arthur 3.57
Darnell Jackson 3.06
Rodrick Stewart -0.03
Mario Chalmers -0.61
Julian Wright -0.69
Matt Kleinmann -1.69
Russell Robinson -2.84
Sherron Collins -2.86
Brandon Rush -4.91

 

PLAYER PSAN
Vealy, M 8.95
Green, C 8.49
King, S 3.52
Sango, K 0.41
Ogunoye, Y -1.07
Ehambe, M -1.38
Liberty, A -5.28
Tutt, K -6.64

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darrell Arthur 4.47
Darnell Jackson 3.63
Mario Chalmers 0.36
Rodrick Stewart 0.18
Julian Wright 0.15
Matt Kleinmann -1.54
Russell Robinson -1.91
Sherron Collins -2.53
Brandon Rush -3.79

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Green, C 11.86
Vealy, M 11.36
King, S 4.64
Sango, K 1.71
Ogunoye, Y 1.08
Ehambe, M -0.86
Liberty, A -2.08
Tutt, K -3.45

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

My Observations

My apologies.  I gave ORU no chance.  And I suspect I wasn't alone.  I'll summarize the few observations that stood out for me:

  • Kansas lacks discipline - #1 factor in losing the game, and it speaks not only to players but to Coach Self's management of the team
  • Northern Arizona game was misleading
  • Oral Roberts executed very well and had an unusually hot shooting night
  • If I see another between-the-legs or behind-the-back dribble attempt, I will become violently ill
  • Ditto for another 3-on-1 or 4-on-1 fast break that ends with no shot, a rushed shot, or turnover

Sorry, no matter how much I try to provide objective, numbers-based information here, I am a diehard Jayhawk.  It's only November, and I'm as upset as I have been in March the past two seasons.  Maybe that means we'll have the opposite trend this year ... depression in November and euphoria in April?  I can only hope so.  I didn't like what I saw tonight against ORU.  Hot shooting night for ORU or not, KU lacked any discipline.  It spilled over into all aspects of the game, including mental focus (freethrows), diligence (turnovers), and pride (nonchalant reactions to losing).  Until this team shows a consistent series of strong efforts, it should be considered merely a conference favorite and Top 10-15 team.  As Self stated in his postgame, "What has this team done?"  It had a strong run of games late last season with the "switch turned on" and then lost when the biggest chips were down.  I'll wait for more evidence before anointing KU a Final Four favorite status.

Yes, it was only one game.  But it was such an unlikely outcome that things must not be as good at KU as many thought.  And I'm not even talking about unrealistic undefeated-thinking types.  The polls put us at #3, and this simply cannot be substantiated at this point.  The sky's the limit if the team comes together like it did last season though.  That's the only thing that keeps me going as a fan.

 

Player Performance Analysis

If you had told me Tutt was going to have such a terrible shooting night, I'd just say, "Awesome, a KU rout."  Instead, somehow the Golden Eagles found an unlikely hero, a deadly hero.  Marchello Vealy blew up for 22 points on 7-8 shooting from deep.  By now, everyone's read the stories that he was only 1-13 in his career before this game.  Naturally, you wouldn't expect anyone to shoot that well on a regular basis.  So, yes, there was an element of luck involved.  But he got into a groove because KU allowed him too many open looks.  Either way, Vealy came to play and deserves Player of the Game honors.  Without his contribution, KU would have at least eked out a comfortable victory.

Green was just a monster inside.  When adjusting for quality of opponent, Green actually outrates Nealy, because playing time is rewarded more against better opposition.  Nearly netting a triple-double, his keen vision resulted in some amazing passes out of the double team in the first half.  He even stroked it twice from deep.  Not one of KU's supposed All-American candidates was even close to Green on this night.  Except Julian Wright ... close enough to watch Green back him down and shoot an assortment of one-handed shot-put style baskets.  The kind that looks like it's lucky nearly every time, but you know it's really skill.

Even Liberty's 8 TO's and Tutt's 3-15 shooting couldn't give the game away to KU.  Those two players had the worst raw ratings on the floor, and still ORU won.  Just incredible.

Who really struggled for the Jayhawks?  Look no further than our preseason All-American, Mr. Brandon Rush.  As aggressive and smooth as he looked in the first game, this time around he was largely passive and ineffective.  He did score 14 points, but missed way too many shots from the field and the freethrow stripe (3-7 at FT ... are you serious??).  Given KU's loss, it was somewhat more negative to have played a lot (i.e., the more playing time assigns more "blame" for the loss).

Russell Robinson shares a great portion of the blame as well.  Three missed freethrows and terrible shooting from the field helped doom the Jayhawks.  In his 31 minutes, RR didn't cause enough havoc on defense to create any more than one steal.  Just as he deserves so much credit when things go really well, he deserves responsibility for games that get ugly.  This qualifies, I'm pretty sure.  His saving grace was 6 assists and having only 1 TO.

Julian Wright had such an unusual night.  He shot terribly, turned it over 6 times, grabbed 12 rebounds, and blocked 5 shots!  As you might expect, the huge negatives and huge positives cancelled each other, and his PSAN rating was right around 0.  The timing of his miscues in the 2nd half is not captured in the boxscore, and thus his rating is probably overstated.

Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson were the only players who produced much for KU.  Arthur led the way with 22 points, mostly off of stickbacks and second-chance points, but he had a knack for being in the right place at the right time.  DJ was extremely efficient and did a little of everything.

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For Metric Result Edge (Comments)
If Kansas can contain Green, it should be a KU rout, if not then it's probably a comfortable win anyway Green to be limited to 18 or fewer points and 10 or fewer rebounds Green exploded for 20 and 11. ORAL ROBERTS - But Green wasn't even the biggest story.  Vealy shot 7-8 from behind the arc, burying KU.


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