Recap: Kansas vs UCLA (NCAA Tournament)

March 27, 2007

UCLA 68 - Kansas 55

(Note: The ratings below have changed a bit.  I no longer do raw PSAN.
I've moved the "Comparative PSAN Ratings" over to the left, also known as "Total Impact"
and added the "Efficiency" on the right, indicating how well each player used his time on the court.)

Comments and Observations

UCLA has shot over 60 eFG% nine times this season.  A quick breakdown of the eFG% defense rankings of those nine opponents:

• Oregon State - 265
• Chaminade - 207 (based on equivalent ranking of Div I team giving up 50.9 eFG%)
• Arizona - 199
• Washington - 193
• Georgia Tech - 150
• Oregon - 129
• Michigan - 44
• KANSAS - 3

Anyone else have that Sesame Street song going through their head?  ("One of these things is not like the others ...")  KU's defense is dependent upon keeping that shooting percentage low.  Four of the five worst defensive eFG% games KU's had this season were losses.  The other (first game against Texas) was darn near a loss.

So, once the Bruins started shooting a sky high percentage, the Jayhawks were pretty much doomed.  Unless, of course, they could find other ways to make up ground.  How about forcing a bunch of turnovers?  Check.  How about making sure to get quality shots at the basket?  Check.  How about getting some UCLA big guys in foul trouble to open up the paint?  Check.  Now we've got a game, right?  Wrong.  All those things led to opportunities that the Jayhawks kept squandering.  Missed layups, missed dunks, dribbling off the leg, airballs and fastbreak gaffes.  KU also picked a terrible day to have its worst turnover rate of the entire season on offense.  Possession after empty possession, Kansas kept reinforcing in the Bruins' minds that this was truly their day.  Wouldn't you feel that way if your opponent seemed to be having a nightmare day, while your "Hail Mary" shots kept finding the bottom of the net?

There are lots of reasons why players miss layups (why does the term "bunnies" only seem to get mentioned when we miss them?).  I can rattle off a few for this particular game:

• KU players were young and rattled by their first big game such as this.
• Once you miss a few early ones (random chance), you get tight on the remaining ones.
• UCLA made it look like they were open layups, but they were really there, altering KU's shots.

My guess is that all these factors were present, but none overwhelmingly so by itself.  The combination of the three with bad luck can produce a stat like the one we saw near the end of the game (14-of-33 on layups/dunks).  It also really hurt that this was the first time KU played in a hostile environment against a championship-caliber team.  Or even a team that's a remote threat to make it to the Final Four.  For a young team not to have any experience to draw upon in such circumstances, it's natural that they would get rattled.  It's just unfortunate that the luck also went UCLA's way.  This had the makings of a very competitive game, even if KU were the lucky team.

I also find it interesting that KU's most efficient player on the day, Darnell Jackson, played a mere 14 minutes.  Darrell Arthur played 24 minutes and had a negative rating.  I'm not nearly as knowledgeable about this team as Bill Self, but it just surprises me that DJ couldn't play more despite playing so well.

I guess the bottom line of it all for me was that the Bruins deserved to win the game because of their ability to step up and make big shots.  Whether anyone feels they were lucky shots or not, they made them.  There was no cheating, no controversial calls and no overwhelming excuses.  Would a healthy Sherron Collins have made a difference?  Probably some, but that's not why KU lost.  KU lost because the circumstances of this game were like no other game KU had played all season long, and the results followed suit.  I hadn't seen anything like this game all season, and I can guarantee you I won't be watching it again, since I already deleted it from my recorder.

Four Factor Analysis

• eFG% - UCLA sizzled (62%) and KU fizzled (45%)
• TURNOVERS - 34-30% advantage to KU (brought to you by Vaseline?)
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Basically even - KU by 36-35%
• FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Big advantage UCLA - 27-9%

CONCLUSION - Mighty fine time the Jayhawks picked to yield the highest eFG% shooting by an opponent all season and turn the ball over at the highest rate all season.  Fortunately, the Bruins turned it over even more, but the Jayhawks squandered too many opportunities to compensate for such a glaring deficit in shooting.  These numbers add up to a nearly 22-point victory for UCLA, so KU's advantages in TO rate and O-Reb% must have been greater than expressed above.  That is, KU must have converted on a higher percentage of offensive rebounds and turnovers than UCLA did.

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