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Recap: Kansas at Missouri

February 12, 2007

Kansas 92 - Missouri 74

 PSAN
Game Ratings

Who contributed most to this game
without adjusting for how good the opponent was?

Best for determining player of the game,
comparing performances in this game only, etc.

cPSAN
Comparative Game Ratings

PSAN Game Ratings ... adjusted for quality of opponent

Best for comparing a player's performance in this game to his (or other players') performances in a different game.

Ratings on the Court
Highest: Julian Wright
Lowest: Marshall Brown

 

PLAYER PSAN
Julian Wright 9.53
Darnell Jackson 7.04
Brandon Rush 5.66
Sherron Collins 1.71
Darrell Arthur 0.67
Mario Chalmers -1.61
Sasha Kaun -2.34
Russell Robinson -2.66

 

PLAYER PSAN
Grimes, K 3.58
Hannah, S 1.53
Dandridge, G* 0.67
Volkus, V* 0.40
Butterfield, D -1.16
Watkins, M -1.35
Horton, J -2.17
Lawrence, M -2.50
Tiller, J -3.40
Lyons, L -3.81
Lawrence, K -4.46
Brown, M -5.33

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

Ratings on the Court
Highest: Julian Wright
Lowest: Marshall Brown

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Julian Wright 12.17
Darnell Jackson 8.50
Brandon Rush 8.15
Sherron Collins 3.68
Darrell Arthur 1.55
Mario Chalmers 0.88
Russell Robinson -0.54
Sasha Kaun -1.76

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Grimes, K 5.86
Hannah, S 4.06
Dandridge, G* 0.67
Butterfield, D 0.47
Volkus, V* 0.40
Lawrence, M 0.03
Watkins, M -0.78
Horton, J -1.44
Lawrence, K -2.02
Tiller, J -2.50
Lyons, L -3.16
Brown, M -3.78

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

My Observations

This was nothing like the game I had expected.  It was almost exactly what I had expected would happen in the first meeting in Lawrence, with KU scoring at will and rebounding well on the offensive end.  Bill Self must have learned more from that first game than Mike Anderson did.  For one, Kaun didn't get much playing time, which is not a reflection of his overall abilities but rather an adaptation to the speed of the game against Missouri.  That much ballyhooed depth is more than just an elixir for tired starters.  It lets the coach mix and match to present the most favorable arsenal of weapons on the floor against whatever the opposition throws against him.  More games like this for KU, please.  And save a couple for March.

Four Factor Analysis

  • eFG% - KU easily, 57-48%.
  • TURNOVERS - Identical 20.5% for each team.
  • OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage to KU 37.5-29%, unlike the reversal in their first game.
  • FREETHROW RATE - Advantage for KU of 30-19%.
What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained

Statistic Measured Kansas Missouri
eFG% 11.0  
TO Rate    
O-Reb% 2.1  
Freethrows FT Pct 4.2  
FT Attempts 2.8  

CONCLUSION - This was mostly about shooting, both from the field and the line.  The MU crowd was booing all day, but KU took only 4 more FT's.  KU broke the press and got better looks and drained them better all day long.  Still, MU didn't shoot terribly (48 eFG%).  No advantages in this game for MU.

Player Performance Analysis

What a game for Julian Wright. Or was it Brendan Wright?  Come on, announcers, he's not exactly a walk-on for an unknown team!  I can't remember the last time any Jayhawk took 21 shots in a game, let alone make 14 of them.  Add 12 rebounds (8 offensive), 5-7 from FT, 2 BLK, 2 AST, 1 STL for 33 points ... geez, we can forgive the 4 TO's this time.  It's becoming clear that Wright's best games are those where he rebounds aggressively and gets open from about 12 feet or closer.  Regardless, when he has his mind in the game and gets his hands on the ball, good things usually happen.  The argument for him being the most efficient and biggest contributor to this team grows even more after this game.

How about Darnell Jackson?  I haven't heard much about his back, so I'm going to assume it's not bothering him too much.  How could it, with some of the numbers he's been posting lately?  He didn't miss any of his four field goals or two freethrows against MU.  He had 6 REB (4 OR), 2 STL and 1 BLK in just 20 minutes.  In conference play, he's been our most efficient player, and I'm not sure he'll be losing that spot after this game.  Remember, Julian got his stats in 36 minutes.

The other major star of this game was Brandon Rush.  So nice to see him consistently near the top of my ratings finally.  Our leading scorer is beginning to shine all-around again.  Can you believe he shot 95 eFG%?  That's just sick, considering he didn't take only short jumpers or anything.  He took 3 three-pointers (and made all of them).  He also chipped in 7 REB and 1 BLK, but also committed 3 TO's.  As with Wright, I think we can forgive the turnovers, as he was a beast this day.  His defense probably played a role in stopping MU shooters from getting hot from the perimeter.  We may be seeing Rush getting better this season, unlike his late-season fade last year.  That can only mean good things as we head into March.

The only other KU player with solid stats was Sherron Collins.  No surprise there, as Collins has been something of a wonderboy over the last several weeks.  In 27 minutes, he missed both of his 3FG's and yet managed to shoot 5-9 anyway (55 eFG%), 7 AST but only 2 TO.  Every drive to the basket seemed to result in a positive outcome.  His minutes are now at parity with Chalmers and Robinson pretty much, so we may be seeing the evolution of a team with three interchangeable guards who play based on matchups and performance that day.

Arthur had a lackluster, foul-plagued day, making the most of his 12 minutes by making 2-4 FG, getting 4 REB and even grabbing 3 STL.  Chalmers, meanwhile, really struggled from the field.  He shot only 1-of-8 but did make all four of his FT's.  He chipped in 4 REB, 2 AST, 4 STL, 1 BLK and 2 TO's.  The reason his rating doesn't look as bad as one might expect is that he played 34 minutes of an impressive team performance.  There's credit in there somewhere, right?

Some might argue that Robinson didn't have nearly as bad a game as his numbers would dictate.  For one, this was a game that required KU to break the press and fend off constant pressure, meaning our guards needed to show poise and awareness.  Robinson (like Chalmers and Collins) ended with only 2 TO's on such a day.  He also added 5 AST, 1 BLK, 1 STL but shot only 1-5 FG and 2-4 FT.  His defense on Matt Lawrence was probably a factor in the first half, although I wasn't tracking him much on defense this game.

Kaun played just 8 ineffective minutes, missing his 3 shots, getting 2 REB and 1 BLK.  This was too fast a game for Kaun, and Self adjusted accordingly.

On MU's side, Grimes and Hannah were the players who really showed up.  Unfortunately for MU, Hannah fouled out during the Tigers' last attempt at a late-game run.  Before fouling out, Hannah had 19 PTS (61 eFG%), 4 REB, 5 AST, 3 STL but also committed a costly 5 TO.  Grimes was a stud on the boards with 9 REB (3 OR), shot 6-9 FG, 4-4 FT, 1 BLK and only 2 TO in 28 minutes.

By and large, the rest of the MU players struggled to contribute much.  Matt Lawrence did a decent job of shooting but not much else.  Marshall Brown really struggled with just 3 points in 19 minutes.

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For Metric Result Edge (Comments)
Kaun and Arthur have really struggled at the FT line for KU, but the Jayhawks are expected to do well at the line to help efficiency. KU to attempt at least 6 more FT's than MU and to make at least 70% KU took only 4 more but made 79% NEUTRAL - Should have been slightly more advantageous for KU but it wasn't a weakness.
KU turnovers, especially early, could set the tone for this game. MU to force TO's on at least 23% of KU possessions KU had TO on only 20.5% KANSAS - Good control of the ball.
MU's best chance on offense will be shooting very well, since they aren't expected to get many offensive rebounds or as many FT's as KU. MU to shoot at least 51 eFG% MU shot 48% KANSAS - Even 51 eFG% doesn't work when you allow 58% from your opponent.


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