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Recap: Kansas at Kansas State

February 20, 2007

Kansas 71 - Kansas State 62

 PSAN
Game Ratings

Who contributed most to this game
without adjusting for how good the opponent was?

Best for determining player of the game,
comparing performances in this game only, etc.

cPSAN
Comparative Game Ratings

PSAN Game Ratings ... adjusted for quality of opponent

Best for comparing a player's performance in this game to his (or other players') performances in a different game.

Ratings on the Court
Highest: Darrell Arthur
Lowest: David Hoskins

 

PLAYER PSAN
Darrell Arthur 7.81
Sherron Collins 5.70
Sasha Kaun 1.03
Mario Chalmers 0.45
Jeremy Case* 0.00
Rodrick Stewart -0.20
Darnell Jackson -0.36
Brandon Rush -1.28
Julian Wright -1.74
Russell Robinson -2.41

 

PLAYER PSAN
Akeem Wright 2.32
Cartier Martin 1.98
Serge Afeli* 0.73
Blake Young* -0.14
Luis Colon -0.79
Jason Bennett -1.63
Lance Harris -1.81
Jermaine Maybank -1.92
Clent Stewart -2.18
David Hoskins -5.55

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

Ratings on the Court
Highest: Darrell Arthur
Lowest: David Hoskins

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darrell Arthur 9.58
Sherron Collins 8.08
Mario Chalmers 3.21
Sasha Kaun 1.96
Brandon Rush 0.80
Julian Wright 0.79
Darnell Jackson 0.48
Rodrick Stewart 0.18
Jeremy Case* 0.00
Russell Robinson -0.71

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Akeem Wright 5.89
Cartier Martin 4.14
Lance Harris 1.39
Clent Stewart 1.31
Serge Afeli* 0.73
Luis Colon 0.34
Blake Young* -0.14
Jason Bennett -0.59
Jermaine Maybank -1.36
David Hoskins -2.54

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

My Observations

So what happens when both Julian Wright and Brandon Rush are ineffective on the road against a bitter opponent who's circled this date on its calendar since October?  Simple, two freshmen McDonald's All-Americans step up, and with backup from last season's most efficient player and suffocating team defense, they take care of business.  This is exactly the kind of thing you're hoping for when you have a team full of talent from top to bottom.  It's supposed to help you avoid nights where everyone has an off night.

Arthur played with an energy I've not seen in many weeks.  And before you go crucifying Russell Robinson, who appears at the bottom of my ratings this game, remember that it was his technical foul that helped fire up Arthur a bit.  Even Rush's bad game had redeeming moments.  Sure, he's going to have bad shooting nights now and again, but how about that key lay-in when he get fouled near the end of the game?

Bottom line, no matter how bad the officiating appeared to KSU fans (trust me, there were bad calls both way), it was clear that Kansas was simply the better team and eventually won by exerting its muscle inside and multitude of weapons outside against a two-headed monster that only showed up with one of them this night (Cartier Martin).  This is exactly the kind of game you expect title contenders to have when a couple of their stars are struggling.  Very nice game, I'd say.

Four Factor Analysis

  • eFG% - KU by 56-39%
  • TURNOVERS - K-State significant advantage, 24-13% rate
  • OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - KU by 38-31%
  • FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Advantage for KU of 33-23%.
What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained

Statistic Measured Kansas Kansas State
eFG% 19.3  
TO Rate   7.0
O-Reb% 1.6  
Freethrows FT Pct   2.5
FT Attempts 4.5  

CONCLUSION - KSU was supposed to capitalize on an expected freethrow line advantage, but instead they got outscored there by two.  The fine job of ball handling (only 9 TO by KSU) didn't come close to offsetting a huge disadvantage in shooting.

Player Performance Analysis

Look who's back atop the ratings ... Darrell Arthur.  Playing with a fire and energy we haven't seen from him for some time, Arthur had 13 PTS and 12 REB (4 OR) with 2 AST and 2 BLK in 23 minutes.  He shot 5-7 from the field and 3-4 from the line while turning it over just once.  In one sequence, he fell for a fake inside, but when the KSU player hesitated before shooting, Arthur had time to jump right back up again (Tigger style) to swat the shot.  What a big night from the only big who really came to play for Kansas.

No envy from the other freshman, Sherron Collins, as he finished with a team-high 20 points on sensational 81 eFG% shooting (2-5 on 3FG), 3 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL and an understandable 4 TO in 31 minutes.  I'm running out of adjectives to describe Collins' play.  Right now, the one I'm hoping for as a selfish KU fan is ... short.  That is, too short to go to the NBA just yet?  What an asset Collins' ability to drive will be in March.  He seems to be born for the big stage.  I can just picture the slow-mo replays before CBS cuts to commercial during our Tournament games, watching Collins weave into traffic and put up a soft one-hander while falling down.  Just beautiful.

Mario Chalmers finally showed up with some offense.  He finished with 17 points on 3-9 from 3FG and 4-5 at the line.  But he also committed 4 TO without too many AST or STL to make up for it.  His raw PSAN suffers a bit because the intangibles in this game were somewhat negative overall, but when adjusted for opponent strength (cPSAN), Chalmers' rating shoots back ahead of Kaun because his 36 minutes of playing time is more of a positive, considering the team performance against a good opponent.

Sasha Kaun yielded the floor to the young Arthur, but during his 12 minutes, he was still reasonably effective.  Kaun finished with 3 PTS, 4 REB, 1 BLK and 1 TO, making his only field goal attempt.

Rush and Wright both had very subpar games.  In Rush's case, he was simply missing wide-open shots.  Nothing you can say about that except bad luck, really.  We know he's a better shooter than that.  Although he missed all five of his three-pointers, he made 3-4 on 2FG but also made only 5-9 from the line.  Although he had a below-average rebounding night, all three of his boards were of the more important offensive variety, and he did limit his TO's to just one.  His defense on Martin was not effective for much of the first half.

Julian Wright played 33 minutes and took only 5 FG.  That's pretty unusual.  In fact, he didn't do a whole lot that showed up on the stat sheet, which is really unusual.  He finished with 4 PTS on 2-5 FG, 0-2 FT, 6 REB, 1 AST, 1 STL, 2 BLK and 3 TO.  I don't know who defended Hoskins, but if he was involved that may have been one reason he wasn't as big on offense.

Darnell Jackson finally played an inefficient game.  In 11 minutes, he didn't score (0-1 FG) but had 3 REB and 1 BLK.  His one PF was an ill-advised bump against a hopeless 3FG attempt by Martin.

What to make of Russell Robinson's performance?  His defense was probably pretty solid, but he didn't perform offensively up to the same level we've seen of late from him.  He finished with 3 PTS on 1-4 FG, 3 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL, 2 TO and 4 PF.  He only played 22 minutes, so Coach Self may really be coming around to playing the most effective players the most for each game.  During crunch time, it was Collins and Chalmers on the court, just as performance this game would dictate.  What a luxury to have three interchangeable guards with unique talents to pick from when it comes down to the wire.  Robinson shouldn't be fazed by this game, though.  He knows his place on this team is secure and that he just had a bad game.

K-State struggled largely because one of its two top players had the worst game on the floor.  Hoskins was a pitiful 2-15 from the field but at least managed to hit 5-5 from the line and 6 offensive boards (8 total).  But he just missed too many shots for the Wildcats to have much of a chance.  Cartier Martin did show up to play, scoring 19 points on 4-10 from 3FG.  A nice game from Akeem Wright (9 PTS, 5 REB, 2-4 on 3FG, 4 STL) wasn't enough to offset mediocre performances by the rest of the Wildcats.

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For Metric Result Edge (Comments)
KSU must limit Kansas second-chance points KU limited to 33% of available O-Reb KU got 38.5% KANSAS - Lots of second-chance opportunities boosted KU's offensive efficiency.
KSU must capitalize on its expected advantage at the freethrow line KSU to score at least 8 more points at FT line than Kansas KSU was outscored by 2 KANSAS - Big missed opportunity.  In fact, it should have been worse, but KU only made 59% at the line.
Kansas should struggle hitting 3FG's, so the inside game must available to them.  Accordingly, the big guys must stay out of foul trouble to help establish lanes, block shots and get offensive rebounds. Kaun, Arthur, Jackson to play a combined 55 minutes with none fouling out. Totaled only 46 min, none fouled out KANSAS - The minutes didn't matter, but Arthur's play in particular really boosted KU.  A lot of drives to the basket by little guys, too.


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