Recap: Kansas at Iowa State

January 14, 2007

Kansas 68 - Iowa State 64 (OT)

My Observations

This is exactly what good teams do when they're not shooting terribly well and struggling with turnovers.  They grind out a victory by fighting on the boards, getting to the line, playing tough defense, and finding a way to make key plays down the stretch.  Winning on the road in the Big 12 against a team on a winning streak, in an incredibly loud venue is always a difficult task.  Put a mark in the "W" column, smile and breathe a sigh of relief.  That's what I did after this very entertaining, hard fought game.

Four Factor Analysis

• SHOOTING - Very slight advantage to ISU (45.2% to 43.5%) for eFG%.  Both teams even took the same number of shots.
• TURNOVERS - Surprisingly, a large advantage for ISU (22.6% vs 14.1%).  Probably the biggest reason this game was close.
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Overall a significant advantage for KU (39% to 23%).  It seemed like this was not the case in the 1st half.
• FREETHROW RATE - 23% to 13% advantage for KU.  Neither team made a good percentage at the line though.

CONCLUSION - The biggest of the four overarching factors in this game was the freethrow line.  It represented a net difference of 6 points in favor of Kansas.  Turnovers kept it close for the Cyclones, but in the second half particularly, they gave up too many offensive rebounds to the Jayhawks.  That's the macro level view statistically.  Naturally, if you look at specific important segments of the game, it boils down to the key plays by Rush, Hubalek, Kaun, and others.  But the macro view matters, because if not for the big-picture trends noted above, the score would not necessarily have been in a position for those plays to matter.

Player Performance Analysis

This was an interesting set of player ratings.  The best and worst player rating on the court were both from Iowa State, and the Cyclones lost.  Looking at the raw data first, it's clear that ISU had a great game from Wesley Johnson to go with fair games from Hubalek and Dunson.  But these performances were negated by the poor overall play of McIntosh and Taylor.  Kansas' attack was much more balanced, with modestly net negative ratings for Robinson and Wright and no one player with an overall solid game.

When adjusting for quality of opponent, the ratings more accurately reflect that Iowa State players were really having a better day compared to expectations than were KU players.  Wesley Johnson, Hubalek, and Dunson hall had +4.00 or higher, while none of the Jayhawks did.  Wesley Johnson scored 14 points on 50 eFG% shooting, 11 REB, 3 BLK, and only 1 TO among other contributions.  Really a spectacular game by the numbers.  Hubalek was unstoppable for a stretch down low, scoring on skyhook after skyhook.  He finished with 13 PTS, 8 REB, and 3 BLK.  Dunson was an extremely efficient shooter (3-4 FG, all three-pointers) and didn't do much else (including mistakes).

Mike Taylor was one of the more interesting players, not surprisingly.  All year long he's been the man taking most of ISU's shots, ending most of their possessions for good or bad, and really determining the direction of the game for the Cyclones.  On this day, he had a terrible shooting performance (7-23 FG, 39 eFG%) to go with 4 TO's, although he chipped in with a few rebounds, assists, and steals.  But the net effect overall was a significant negative.  KU fans must not have realized how poorly he was shooting, because so many of his shots looked improvised or off-balance but went in anyway.  Nevertheless, it was a bad game for him and, naturally, his team.

As poorly as Taylor's results were, McIntosh's numbers looked even worse.  In 24 minutes, he didn't score a point (missed both his shots), had no rebounds, 1 AST, 2 TO's, 1 STL and 2 fouls.  Those don't sound like numbers from someone who made tons of mistakes or anything, but if you play 24 minutes in the game, it's not good when that's all you have to show for it.  I'll admit that I wasn't watching him, so he could be a role player who performed very well on the intangibles he's supposed to provide.

Sasha Kaun followed up possibly the best game of his career with a team-leading performance.  He started shakily with a couple of turnovers while trying to back down into the lane, but he eventually came around to show some fine post moves.  If he had just made some more freethrows, he could have had a stellar rating.  It's just remarkable to see how far he's come since the early-season injury.  If KU can start counting on him to provide some of this inside scoring on nifty moves, it will really open things up for the guards.  Kaun shot 6-8 with 5 REB.

Rush was unbelievably important down the stretch, hitting some really key shots, shutting down Mike Taylor, and getting a very timely steal and breakaway dunk.  His overall numbers for the game didn't look great though ... 4-14 FG (36 eFG%), but he had 9 REB (4 offensive) and zero turnovers.  He was really able to negate a poor shooting day by not making mistakes and helping keep the ball in KU's hands.  Kudos to Rush for continuing to improve and find ways to contribute to this team's midseason surge.

Chalmers had a second consecutive quiet game offensively.  Even though he scored in double figures (11), five points came from the freethrow line where he was perfect, and he made zero steals, and missed all three of his 3FG's.  On the flip side, he made only 1 TO, 7 REB, and 4 AST playing 39 minutes.  Not a great game for him, but you can't really blame a guy for having a bad shooting night but doing so many other things well (see Rush above).

Darrell Arthur had a workmanlike performance, shooting 3-for-5 for seven points.  He made his lone freethrow (after missing all attempts his last game) and got back to getting some rebounds (4) in 20 minutes of action.  He swatted away two shots.

Sherron Collins definitely made some good plays offensively.  Shooting 5-for-8 from the floor (0-2 on 3FG's), he also had 2 AST and 2 TO's.  He's beginning to find his way, although there were times when it looked a bit like he was rushing things out there.  Nevertheless, there is no doubt the point guard position contributes more points when Collins is in the game.  The question is whether that is a net positive considering that Collins is still learning defense and is not as good a rebounder as Robinson.  Coach Self doesn't seem to think so at this time, since it was Robinson on the court and Collins on the bench for much of crunch time late in the second half and overtime.  On this day, the numbers argue in favor of Collins' performance over that of Robinson.  Russell made only 1-of-5 shots, had 3 REB, 2 AST, 2 TO's, and zero steals.

It's too bad there is no statistic for blown layups, because Darnell Jackson's miss inside late in the game could really have been costly.  He didn't have a good game, but it still wasn't a net negative.  Even though he shot only 1-of-6 from the floor, he had 3 offensive rebounds (4 overall) to go with a blocked shot and zero turnovers in only 12 minutes.

It feels like Julian Wright either has a top-notch game or an embarrassing.  Fortunately, after having the latter, it didn't cost his team the victory.  Seven turnovers usually spells doom, and it really did for a while.  Wright was just throwing the ball inside, hoping it would be KU that comes up with it instead of passing with a purpose.  Things would have been much, much worse if not for his 12 rebounds.  But ultimately those rebounds were very crucial, as ISU's second-chance opportunities finally started drying up in the second half.  Julian also had a very important baseline jumper in overtime and a game-sealing freethrow.  But this certainly was a forgettable performance in the overall picture.

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