Recap: Kansas at DePaul

December 3, 2006

DePaul 64 - Kansas 57

My Observations

Consistent energy.  Consistent focus.  Consistent desire.  Consistent passion.  Talent.  You need all five to earn a high seed and eventually make a run at the title.  Why does this Kansas team think it only needs the last one and only short stretches of the first four?  Someone in the organization (or many) has decided that it's alright to come up short again this season.  No one's verbalized that, but inaction speaks louder than words.  There could be several explanations for why KU isn't playing with constant passion and energy:

• Bill Self - A coach can't be out there on the floor, but the mindset of a team is absolutely affected by its coach's mindset.  Everyone sees how teams take on the personality of its coach.  Ultimate accountability for the team's performance rests with the coach, so at the very least he has to take some of the blame.  Maybe Self just doesn't feel as passionate about playing mediocre teams or underrates them in his preparations.
• Inflated Egos - This had better NOT be the case with this team.  Although they had a nice run down the stretch of the conference season last year and had many preseason accolades bestowed upon them, two first-round losses in a row should keep any team humble.  An earlier loss at home to Oral Roberts should keep any team hungry for redemption.  A win over #1 Florida should have been an encouragement, not affirmation that they have arrived.  There is no proof anyone has "arrived" until the season is over.
• Chemistry - Maybe a team full of McD AA's just can't do the little things necessary to win?  I don't buy this argument.  Maybe it could keep a team from going all the way, but it should not be the cause of shocking losses to very weak teams.
• Youth - This team has no senior leadership.  But that shouldn't be the cause of passionless play on a consistent basis.  I can see a letdown here and there, but other than the Florida game, this team just hasn't been spirited overall.

There are many other theories, but I just listed the first few on my mind.  I'm not sure I have any sense of the real cause of the problem, but I do know the problem is that this team doesn't show up ready to play every game.  And until it does, Jayhawk fans should prepare for more sleepless nights.

So, what happened by the numbers to give the victory to DePaul?  Let's break down the four important statistical efficiency factors:

• SHOOTING - Despite a ridiculously poor shooting first half, DePaul actually ended up shooting a better eFG% for the game than KU (47.9% to 47.1%).  The way DePaul gives up shots, this should not have happened to one of the nation's better shooting teams.  Huge surprise in this department.
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - We knew that DePaul could shut down KU's offensive rebounds given earlier season data, but the high percentage of offensive rebounds for DePaul was very surprising.  Most came courtesy of Player-of-the-Game Sammy Mejia (7 of his 8 boards were offensive).  Another very big surprise.
• TURNOVERS - Same number of TO's on both sides.  A bit surprising, as it was expected that KU might not turn it over as much as DePaul.
• FREETHROW RATE - This may be the biggest factor in the game.  DePaul had a whopping 40% rate (that's FTM divided FGA), while KU had a meager 18%.  This was extremely unexpected, as it was a relative KU strength and DU weakness going in.  Possessions that could easily have come up empty (neither team was shooting well) became valuable points for DePaul on the board, as KU fouled and fouled its way to a big upset.

There you have it, all four factors were unexpectedly favored toward DePaul, the most crucial ones being offensive rebounding and freethrow rate.

Player Performance Analysis

Interesting game in that, from a raw ratings perspective (PSAN), Mejia was the only player with a high rating.  Everyone else hovered right around a neutral rating or just a little above/below.  This was truly a one-man show in every way.  If not for his 5 TO's, his rating would be through the roof!  He did everything a player could do.

Clarke, Chandler, and Burns had solid games when you consider they were playing a stronger team.  Most of the remaining credit after Mejia goes to the whole team.

For Kansas, there isn't much to discuss regarding who played well.  Chalmers had a great game offensively.  He was credited with only one STL, and that was questionable as it didn't look he had possession of the ball before losing it out of bounds.  He played most of the game, so by extension, he's getting responsibility for a great portion of the poor team performance.

The story of the game for Kansas has to be Brandon Rush's ineffectiveness.  Rush finds himself in the midst of a terrible shooting slump.  At one point, he nearly threw up an airball from about five feet, although he probably shouldn't have been thrown that pass to begin with.  My point isn't that the play was his fault, just that he's not firing on all cylinders.  Until evidence transpires to the contrary, I will consider Rush to be a solid defender, usually reliable 3-pt shooter, and good defensive rebounder who has enough stamina to play most of the game.  First impressions are extremely difficult to overcome, and in the case of BRush, KU fans are having a hard time letting go of the incredible start he had last season.  Brandon doesn't want to be a go-to-guy, but he does want KU to win.  And he's trying as hard as anyone else on the team (not saying much right now), so I will always be pulling for him.  A little good luck on some of his shots, and he could be put up some impressive numbers.  Let's just stop putting the weight on the world on his shoulders just because someone else thought he could carry it.  If you followed the ratings here much, he wasn't expected to do that much for KU.

Besides Chalmers, the only players to rate somewhat positive were Arthur (too bad he couldn't play more minutes) and Kaun.  Sasha is still getting his bearings, but it was nice to see some more strength in his jump.  It is unfortunate that, in a game where KU was giving up too many offensive rebounds, we couldn't play Arthur and Kaun more to minimize second-chance opportunities.  I wonder if this was strictly due to Arthur's spill and Sasha's continued recovery, or if Self just didn't think to do this?

Julian had a decent game in terms of contributions, but his rating is brought down by the overall team performance.  Russell is usually underrated, but in this game he could have been rated higher if not for a few of the desperation three's had to take near the end.  He had a fairly decent 4 AST, 2 TO performance to go with a steal.  But putting it all together with team performance, it ended up being right around an average game.

Finally, in just 8 minutes, Darnell Jackson managed 2 TO's and 2 PF's.  It wasn't pretty, and he didn't get much of a chance to redeem himself.  His productivity has been good in other games, so hopefully this was an aberration.  Something tells me we can expect bad games like this from him occasionally.

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