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Recap: Boston College at Kansas

December 24, 2006

Kansas 84 - Boston College 66

 PSAN
Game Ratings

Who contributed most to this game
without adjusting for how good the opponent was?

Best for determining player of the game,
comparing performances in this game only, etc.

cPSAN
Comparative Game Ratings

PSAN Game Ratings ... adjusted for quality of opponent

Best for comparing a player's performance in this game to his (or other players') performances in a different game.

Ratings on the Court
Highest: Sean Williams
Lowest: Tyrese Rice

 

PLAYER PSAN
Mario Chalmers 7.37
Darnell Jackson 5.18
Julian Wright 3.90
Sasha Kaun 3.06
Brandon Rush 2.43
Brady Morningstar* 0.00
Darrell Arthur -0.74
Russell Robinson -1.33
Sherron Collins -1.87

 

PLAYER PSAN
Williams, S 12.05
McLain, A* 2.91
Blair, T -2.66
Haynes, M -2.71
Dudley, J -4.17
Marshall, S -5.08
Spears, S -6.58
Rice, T -11.76

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

Ratings on the Court
Highest: Sean Williams
Lowest: Tyrese Rice

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Mario Chalmers 8.86
Darnell Jackson 5.86
Julian Wright 5.35
Brandon Rush 3.84
Sasha Kaun 3.74
Russell Robinson 0.29
Darrell Arthur 0.03
Brady Morningstar* 0.00
Sherron Collins -1.49

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Williams, S 16.46
McLain, A* 2.91
Dudley, J 0.73
Haynes, M 0.35
Blair, T -1.56
Marshall, S -2.26
Spears, S -3.76
Rice, T -6.86

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

My Observations

Unfortunately, CBS decided not to broadcast this game in many locations nationwide, even at local sports bars.  I listened to most of the game of the radio, so all I could sense is that the KU players were fired up for a significant portion of the first half and early second half.  It also seemed that Sean Williams was unbelievably menacing inside.  Beyond that, my analysis will come strictly from reading reports of the game and, of course, the statistics.

Four Factor Analysis

  • SHOOTING - Advantage to Kansas, 50% vs 44.4%.  It was a much wider gap early in the second half, when the Jayhawks had their biggest lead, but BC made somewhat of a comeback and kept KU in check.  Since the game was never really in doubt after halftime, this statistic is probably somewhat misleading.  When it mattered, KU outshot the Eagles by a wide margin.
  • OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - As expected, Kansas was extremely effective on the offensive glass, grabbing 43% of available offensive rebounds to BC's 35%.  Incidentally, BC did an admirable job on their own offensive glass, just not enough to really change the game.
  • TURNOVERS - Significant advantage to Kansas, 21% of possessions versus 29% of possessions for BC.  If the game had been closer, the extra 6 possessions for KU would have meant even more (roughly 6 points), but as it was, the fact that 13 of the Eagles TO's were steals by KU, it resulted in a huge momentum builder as the Jayhawks scored on fastbreak after fastbreak, perhaps the best way to improve offensive efficiency.
  • FREETHROW RATE - Ended up even, as both teams had a rate of 33% (FT Made / FG Attempted).  This was supposed to be an advantage for BC, so effectively this showed a good effort from Kansas.

Player Performance Analysis

Kansas is starting to see a leader emerge from the shadows, and he plays a lot bigger than he looks.  Mario Chalmers has returned to the late-season form he had last season.  When KU needs a big shot, they put the ball in Mario's hands and watch him deliver.  The only thing Chalmers didn't do well against BC was rebound, and who really needs him for that?  Not when he can score 22 pts on 9-16 shooting (3-6 from 3FG's), dish out 4 assists, and swipe 5 steals while blocking a shot.  For KU, this game belonged to Mario Chalmers.

Meanwhile, Darnell Jackson puts in a solid performance, making 3-3 FG's and scoring 11 pts with 6 reb (3 offensive).  When Jackson isn't trying to do things out of his element, he brings a great energy to the team and is one of the conference's most effective rebounders.  If he continues to show some improvement on defense, he'll be a very important component of any deep run Kansas may have in March.

Watching and listening to the game, it probably felt that Rush had a fantastic game.  In fact, he did have a fantastic scoring/shooting game.  I had expected Rush to be guarding Dudley and not having much energy on offense.  Not having watched the game, it's unclear whether he did guard Dudley.  Regardless, Rush shot and scored very well.  The reason his rating doesn't look nearly as good as you might expect is that he didn't do much else and missed half his freethrows.  So, all in all, an excellent scoring performance but overall, just a good performance.

Julian Wright had a stronger overall game than Rush.  He shot only 5-13 (including a three-pointer), but in a game where KU was rebounding 43% on the offensive glass, missed shots weren't as bad an outcome as usual.  Julian made lots of other plays, dishing out 4 AST with 3 STL.  His weakness on the day (as has been the case all season) was committing 5 TO's.  But his dominating rebounding performance really made up for that, along with playing so many minutes in a big win.

Sasha Kaun's numbers continue to improve as he is getting more practice time and repetition.  Starting his second game in a row, Kaun was whistled for 4 PF's in only 16 minutes, but he shot well from the field (3-5), FT line (2-3), rebounded (6), and even blocked three shots.  A nice, efficient game for the big man.

Russell Robinson and Darrell Arthur both had a roughly neutral game.  Robinson's positives were in AST (as usual) and a decent number of rebounds (4) including two offensive rebounds.  Shockingly, Russell had zero steals, but he probably played an important role in disrupting the BC guards.  Regardless, combined with continued anemic shooting (2-8 FG), the Eagles defense probably felt like they could focus on the other four players on the court.  Arthur uncharacteristically struggled from the field also, shooting only 1-of-7, but managed to rebound and shoot enough freethrows to score 7 points.  Not a strong game at all for the highest-rated player coming into the game.

The problem with Robinson's poor offensive output is that his backup, Sherron Collins, hasn't been playing all that well either.  He doesn't make the best decisions on fast breaks, and his diminutive stature makes him a rebounding liability when KU plays zone.  Collins played only 9 minutes without scoring and committed 2 TO's.  It would have been nice to see him play a few more minutes when KU was up 20+ points in the second half, but he'll warrant more playing time as his performance improves.  Point guard offensive production will be an interesting thing to follow for KU the next several weeks.

On Boston College's side, this was the Sean Williams Show.  An absolutely dominating performance on offense and defense from the big man affected everything that was happening.  Career highs in points (19) and rebounds (15) were supplemented by dominating defense inside (7 BLK) and great hands (3 STL).  Unfortunately for BC, most of the other players didn't show up with the same intensity, and in other cases didn't even show up.  McClain sprained his ankle after four solid minutes, and the player he was replacing (Oates) had to miss the game.  BC's frontcourt wasn't at full strength, but even the usually dependable Jared Dudley didn't have the spectacular game he's used to having.  This was only the second game this season Dudley was held to below 18 points.

Rice, Spears, and Marshall really struggled in particular for the Eagles.  Rice played all 40 minutes, but managed to shoot only 2-13 from the field with 5 TO's.  Spears and Marshall both had foul trouble and didn't contribute much offensively.  Both turned the ball over too often.  All in all, not a great shooting day from the perimeter for BC (4-of-19).

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For Metric Result Edge (Comments)
Dudley holds so much of BC's fate in his hands.  He needs to have at least an above-average game. Dudley with at least 20 pts, 9 reb, and eFG% at least 50% Dudley had only 14 pts, 8 reb, on 33% eFG KANSAS - If Dudley had a strong game in addition to Williams' dominating performance, things could have been different.
KU can't afford to let one of BC's normally cold perimeter shooters get hot. BC's Rice and Marshall to combine for less than 33% shooting from 3FG if taking 6 or more 3FG's Combined for 2-10 on 3FG's KANSAS - Perimeter shooting from BC was a non-factor and made a big comeback next to impossible.
Sean Williams is BC's main inside defensive threat and must stay out of foul trouble so he can play. Williams to play at least 32 minutes Williams played 36 BOSTON COLLEGE - Despite 4 fouls, Williams dominated action.
KU can really break open the game with some steals and fastbreak opportunities KU to get at least 9 steals 13 STL's for KU KANSAS - One of the biggest factors in winning the game, the steals got the KU fastbreak going, and they never looked beatable again.


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