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Preview: Winston Salem State at Kansas

December 18, 2006

Winston Salem State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

  Kansas Winston Salem State

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 8-2 0-13
AP Rank 11 NR
Consensus Ranking
(average of several computer ratings and AP/Coaches polls)		 28 328
RPI
(not a good judge of strength, only used for rough estimate of strength of opponent)		 48 310
Best wins this season (Ranking from Pomeroy) vs Florida (# 1) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Southern Cal (# 53) W 72-62		 No wins

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers    
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 39  
Analysis of Variance
(uses team performance and consistency over last 10 games)		 100% chance of victory  
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) Win 87-42
100% chance of victory		  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Darrell Arthur 7.99 42.55
Julian Wright 5.65 39.31
Darnell Jackson 3.91 17.00
Mario Chalmers 3.90 25.97
Brady Morningstar 2.69 2.44
Russell Robinson 2.63 19.91
Sherron Collins 2.04 9.56
Jeremy Case* 2.02 1.20
Rodrick Stewart* 1.50 2.43
Brandon Rush 1.21 9.39
Matt Kleinmann* 0.25 0.22
Sasha Kaun -0.10 -0.25
Brennan Bechard* -0.81 -0.08
Brad Witherspoon* -5.93 -0.41

* Rating not based on enough data.

Winston Salem State

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

 
 
PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Julian Murphy-Long* 5.38 5.11
Patrick McCandies* 0.50 0.22
Jarmel Baxter* 0.00 0.00
David Moore -0.93 -4.68
Andrew Porter* -2.28 -0.67
Jamal Durham -2.87 -27.98
Darrell Wonge -3.11 -25.09
Darius Floyd -3.19 -23.41
Roy Peake -3.29 -35.09
Curtis Hines -3.31 -17.25
Norman Carter -4.18 -19.62
Brian Fisher -4.39 -33.46
Lowen Wray -5.51 -26.54
Jason Smith* -9.24 -12.60
Greg Lewis* -10.06 -19.35

* Rating not based on enough data.
 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

No analysis.  Too big a mismatch.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics
(from Pomeroy)

Kansas

Winston Salem State
  • Offense #22 - Defense #10 - Tempo #144
  • Dominant offensive rebounding (#17)
  • Ranks #25 in eFG% allowed, and #6 in 2FG% allowed
  • Ranked #33 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #38 in STL
  • Lets opponents steal the ball too often (#261)
  • Dominates the blocking game on both sides (#7 on both sides)
  • Ranks #275 in % of FGA's that are 3FG
  • Ranks #35 in allowing assisted FG's by opponents
  • Offense #332 - Defense #293 - Tempo #223
  • Ranks very poorly in nearly every category, except following:
    • Forcing TO's from opponent (#89), including STL (#104)
    • Opponents' FT percentage (#109)
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents rely somewhat less than usual on 2FG's.
  • On offense, WSS relies less than usual on 2FG's, while its opponents rely less than usual on 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

 

Clear Advantage for Kansas No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for WSS
Kansas Strength - WSS 2pt FG%    
Kansas Strength - WSS % Poss Blocked by Opp    
Kansas Strength - WSS Points Per Possession    
Kansas Strength - Kansas % Poss Blocked by Opp    
Kansas Strength - WSS eFG%    
Kansas Strength - Kansas OREB    
Kansas Strength - Kansas Points Per Possession    
Kansas 2pt FG%    
Kansas eFG%    
Kansas Strength - WSS % Poss STL by Opp    
Kansas Strength - WSS TO rate    
WSS FT Rate    
WSS OREB    
Kansas FT Rate    
  WSS 3pt FG%  
  WSS FT%  
  Kansas 3pt FG%  
  Kansas TO rate  
  Kansas FT%  
    Kansas % Poss STL by Opp

 

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted
Expect average-paced game

 

Game Outlook

This should be absolutely no contest, with the Jayhawks cruising to a blowout victory.  The only areas of potential opportunity for WSS to exploit will be KU turnovers (specifically, steals by WSS) and a possibility of KU shooting FT's poorly, although the latter will depend upon who is shooting the freethrows (i.e., will Kaun have a busy night at the line?).

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 93-50.

 

 


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