Preview: USC at Kansas

December 4, 2006

USC at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

The Trojans come into the game with a couple of solid players, two other decent starters, and no real point guard.  Gabe Pruitt is still academically ineligible the rest of this semester, and he wasn't scheduled to be the starting point guard except that Ryan Francis was tragically killed in the off-season.

Nick Young is a slasher and scorer whose game has been on this season.  Except for 3 TO's per game, there isn't anything to complain about with his stats.  It should be a good matchup if Brandon Rush defends him.  The other solid player has been Taj Gibson, a 6-9 F who averages nearly a double-double in over 30 minutes per game.  These two have provided the bulk of contributions to the team.

Cromwell and Stewart have been positive influences also.  In very limited minutes, the 6-10 F Cromwell has really shot efficiently and done just enough rebounding to keep his rating well above zero.  Lodrick Stewart, on the other hand, is the 6-4 G brother of KU's Rodrick Stewart.  Lodrick has been scoring at an impressive 14.7 clip this season, but he isn't shooting all that well, thus explaining his somewhat rating for an almost 15 point scorer.

In place of expected starting point guard, Pruitt, the Trojans have looked to Daniel Hackett to fill the void.  He's responded with a 1:1 AST/TO ratio and poor shooting.  The other struggling player for USC has been Dwight Lewis.  Jayhawk fans may remember Lewis.  He once verbally committed to KU before changing his mind (or some think agreeing to change his mind) and signing with USC.  He just hasn't done anything well this season, which KU fans will hope is a trend that continues at Allen Fieldhouse.

For Kansas, the dominant performer from an efficiency standpoint all season has been Darrell Arthur.  His incredible opening to the season has continued, and given Julian Wright's negative rating against DePaul, Arthur is now tops in overall contributions as well as per-70-possessions.  Nevertheless, Julian Wright still has a terrific efficiency rating, doing a little bit of everything and not hurting himself in any category except TO's.

Russell Robinson provides solid play at the point guard position, with a stellar 3:1 AST/TO ratio.  Although his shooting from the field leaves much to be desired, he more than makes up for it with his ability to get to and convert from the freethrow line.  RR leads the team in both freethrows made and attempted.

Darnell Jackson followed up a strong game against Dartmouth with possibly his poorest effort of the season against DePaul.  This may be the game where Mario Chalmers pulls ahead of him in the efficiency category, depending upon whether KU keeps pounding the ball inside.  Chalmers come into the game with a strong effort in last game's loss, making him the team's fourth player averaging in double figures.

Sherron Collins hasn't established himself quite yet.  If not for his hot perimeter shooting games, he'd almost surely have a negative rating.  He also is one of the lower rated players on the team in "unexpected change of possession," which is a combination of the STL, TO, and BLK rating.

Brandon Rush is due for a big offensive game any day now.  We know he's a much better freethrow shooter than his season average (48%), and he's probably better than his 35% from 3-pt.  He's now slipped back to the third leading scoring spot, and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't rise above that the rest of this season.  Regardless, he is bound to have a big game soon ... why not against USC?

Until Sasha Kaun is recovered from his injury, we can't truly judge him.  In his last 3 games, he has played between 12 and 15 minutes each.  Given Arthur's dominance, Kaun probably isn't slated for much more than 20 minutes per game when playing at full strength.  So, he's probably somewhere around 70-75 percent fully integrated.  He shouldn't stay in the negative contributions column too much longer, as that's just not his game.  Normally, he converts what he's given, doesn't TO very often and shoots a high percentage from the field.  This game could be a confidence builder if things go well for Kansas.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

Game Outlook

The big mismatch here will be the USC offense versus the Kansas defense.  Because the game should be somewhat uptempo, this doesn't mean USC will hardly score any points, just that they won't score on a high percentage of their possessions.  The two major components USC will likely point to as the cause of its offensive struggles will be turnovers and shooting percentage.  A good chunk of those TO's could be steals by Kansas.  If USC is to shoot well, it would most likely be from behind the arc, however.  And we all know what a hot night can mean for an underdog against Kansas this season.

The one area in USC's favor is their ability to keep KU from making a high percentage of its 3-pt shots.  In general, KU may not shoot all that well, but it shouldn't be as mighty a struggle as it likely will be for the Trojans on offense.

If things go as expected, and it's an uptempo game with plenty of KU steals, then look for big games from Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson.  The biggest contributors inside for Kansas will likely be whoever gets the offensive rebounds, since that should be a clear advantage for KU also.  Wright and Arthur stand to gain from this expected advantage.

Signs point to an easy Kansas victory, but just remember that this Jayhawk team can lose on any given night to a Top 125-ish team.  I doubt they would do it two games in a row, with one being in Allen Fieldhouse.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 82-59.

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