Preview: Towson at Kansas

November 18, 2006

Towson at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Any talk of Towson's players begins with Gary Neal, the nation's leading returning scorer from last season.  He's started the season with a scorching 30.5 scoring average in the first two games.  He's clearly his team's leading contributor from an absolute standpoint.  He plays so many minutes (38 min/g) that his efficiency slips a bit.  Nevertheless, Towson's ability to knock off ranked teams requires a strong game from Neal.  That does not necessarily mean a huge scoring night, but an efficiently-played game from Neal with plenty of scoring.  If the opponent focuses on Neal, other players have a chance to step up their games, in theory.  Those other players are not great but better this season than in recent years at Towson.  Neal gets the bulk of his team's shots and shoots a decent percentage (last season eFG% was around 54%).  He gets his fair share of AST without turning it over.  And he's extremely effective at going to the freethrow line and converting.  Seems like the prototypical "ride-his-back" to the upset kind of a player.

Tommy Breaux is a 6-9 junior who also plays wide receiver for Towson's football team.  He's had two efficient games, albeit not very eye-grabbing.  He's a good shot blocker, solid rebounder, gets up and down the floor, and has shot his FT's well thus far.  It's unlikely that people will look and say that Breaux was THE reason for a victory, but he's the kind of player you look back on the season and say that he was a big key to the team's success.

Crossin and Williams are in a battle for best point guard.  Crossin was an all-conference rookie team member, averaging 5 apg.  But Williams comes in from JC as a 3rd Team All-American.  So far, both have equal AST and TO, but Crossin has the edge in scoring productivity.  Either way, the Tigers have the point guard position well covered.

Tubbs has been averaging 34 min/g but comes in at a below-average rating.  The biggest reason is that he averages 4 TO's per game, and Towson has been scoring very efficiently.  Those TO's are thus quite costly.  The man can certainly rebound though (10 per game).

Spruill and Abraham are the only other players with significant playing time.  Both are bringing up the rear in contributions.  Spruill is a 6-5 freshman guard, and he's really struggling with his shots from everywhere.  Not much else to make up for it either, at least not from what's in the boxscore.  Abraham is the team's biggest player at 6-8, 245 lbs.  Unfortunately, that hasn't translated into much in his numbers.  Rebounding is the only thing he's done in the one game he's played.  But that's just one game.  From last season, we know that Abraham takes a fair number of shots, gets plenty of defensive rebounds, and doesn't turn it over very often.

For Kansas, things are definitely not stabilized in the player ratings.  That is, expect this list to change significantly over the next several weeks.  None of the players are probably as good as they looked against Northern Arizona or as bad as they looked against Oral Roberts.

Darnell Jackson has had a solid first two games.  Defensively, it's difficult to capture what he's doing on paper, but his other numbers sure look good.  Playing in only 21 min/g, he's still getting 9 reb/gm and shooting 60% from the field plus 80% from FT.  He's been very active, but we know from the past that DJ has stretches like that followed by some pretty average games.  It remains to be seen if he's ready to keep this level of play going, especially in light of a little shoulder "tweak" he experienced in Friday's practice.

Julian Wright will bounce back from a less-than-acceptable performance against Oral Roberts.  Wright is one of those players who prides himself on learning from his mistakes and really tries to bring the team together.  Look for a focused, almost vengeful performance against Towson.  His numbers against Northern Arizona were so unbelievable that his season cumulative ratings are still quite good.  He does a little bit of everything well, and he'll do a little of everything great the rest of the season.

Many Jayhawk fans probably wonder what they'd do if Darrell Arthur hadn't come to Lawrence.  The freshman has averaged 17 pts per game, shot well from the field and freethrow line, pulling down plenty of rebounds, and even blocked 2 shots per game.  It would not appear to be a fluke, as his preseason performances were mostly impressive.  DA will probably be a strong force all season long, particularly once Kaun comes back to give him some much-needed rest.

Morningstar has only played in one game, but it was an efficient one with 14 minutes, so not completely a mathematical rounding issue to see him up there.  We'll see if he continues to be an efficient contributor if KU plays well enough to warrant him some playing time against Towson.

Robinson, Collins, and Rush all have different stories but similar overall ratings thus far.  Robinson gets plenty of credit for his defense (not enough credit in these ratings because boxscores don't do it well enough) and assists with few TO's, but his shooting is abysmal.  Collins had a solid debut, but he turns the ball over way too much.  Rush had a fantastic opener but really struggled against ORU.  Which BRush will show up against Towson?  The answer will really shape the outcome.  It just seems to go against his fiber to be aggressive consistently.

Finally, Mr. Chalmers ... last season's most efficient player and biggest contributor in the PSAN ratings.  Really, a poor start to his second season we're seeing so far.  His scoring is down (9 ppg), and he's not shooting it well (eFG just 44%).  It's not a horrendous start, like last season, but he has a long way to go.  We have to cut him some slack for his sprained toe, but that's pretty well gone now.  I expect this next game to be his welcome-back party.

Game Outlook

If you throw out what you know about KU from the past and only focus on the data thus far, Towson should be slightly favored in this game.  But we all know that the "real" Kansas team didn't show up against Oral Roberts.  That makes analyzing this game quantitatively, this early in the season, a bit difficult.

One trend that holds true for both teams this season as well as last season is that their opponents typically got more of their points from 3FG than the average team.  But we know that KU has a tendency to score more heavily from 2FG's.  That may represent one of the key dynamics of the game.  Towson will try to keep the Jayhawks out of the paint, while KU will crash the boards for stickbacks and generally look to a lot of inside scoring.  If KU shoots well from the outside, then everything will flow easily for them, as the inside will become even easier to penetrate.  Towson is just not a big, strong team, so this is KU's biggest advantage.

On the outside, things look more even.  Neal provides an incredible scorer's mentality coupled with the complementary point-guard mentalities of Crossin and Williams.  Simply put, if Neal comes to play an efficient game, things could get close.  If he's missing shots and not involving teammates, look for an easy KU victory.

Ball control could be a big part of this game.  Kansas turned it over 14 times in the first half against Oral Roberts.  Scoring efficiency can plummet when that happens.  Neither team has been particularly good at forcing TO's this season.  If one team does this game, it could shift things considerably.

Kansas is deeper and generally more talented than Towson, so an up-tempo game favors the Jayhawks.  Current season data implies that this game will be fairly up-tempo (about 75 possessions).

Finally, you can't ignore the "revenge" factor for Kansas.  Towson had nothing to do with KU's pitiful play against Oral Roberts, but you can bet that Kansas players will be acting like they did.  Expect intense focus, no mercy, and hustle from Kansas.  Also, expect a new home winning streak to start right about now.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 89-70.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy