Preview: Toledo at Kansas

December 8, 2006

Toledo at Kansas (Kansas City, MO)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

The Toledo Rockets don't field a very deep team.  Four players average 33 min/game or more.  Of those, two play very efficiently (wing men Howell and Valencia), while another (5-9 Kashif Payne) has been playing horribly.  In between, there's a moderately above-average performing Tyrone Kent and the efficient but somewhat little used Jonathan Amos.

Toledo is extremely small.  Their tallest players of any consequence are 6-7, and they are both very seldom used.  Jerrah Young has the worst efficiency rating on the team, while Shane Ross also has a negative rating.  Valencia can play inside with good results, however.  He's shooting a whopping 67% from the field and averaging over 7 rebounds per game.

Going into the season, the strength of this team was expected to rest with its backcourt and wingmen.  Howell does it with strong 3FG shooting (23-50 on the season), while Justin Ingram provides scoring punch.  Problem is, Ingram is shooting under 40% and averages a whopping 4.3 TO's a game.  Ridley Johnson is another underperformer, shooting a pitiful eFG 19%, turning it over on nearly 30% of possessions, and doing nothing else to compensate for those.  Kashif Payne has played more efficiently than Johnson, but because he's played much more, his contributions have hurt the team more.  Kashif has shot a "Payne"-ful 25 eFG% for the season, and though he has a respectable 24.7% assist rate, he more than "makes up" for it with TO's on 36% of possessions.

Howell and Valencia have carried this team on their backs so far.  They'll probably need a lot of help to keep this game close on the road against their strongest opponent to date.

Kansas counters with weapons from all parts of the court.  Arthur and Wright have been at the top of the leaderboard all season long, with Arthur now putting himself in prime consideration for MVP honors.  Lately, it's been Mario Chalmers climbing up the ranks though.  He's had solid performance after solid performance.  With his shooting at a sky-high 56.5 eFG%, Chalmers look to become an offensive force for the Jayhawks outside to complement what Arthur is doing inside.

Darnell Jackson turned in a spirited performance in his last game but has a tendency to take some games off.  Meanwhile, Russell Robinson had his poorest outing last game, committing an uncharacteristically high number of TO's.  Look for him to settle back down.  Some feel Sherron Collins is ready to move into the starting lineup over Robinson, but Sherron needs to show he can be as consistent before that happens.  SC is shooting a hot 55 eFG% for the year and has an impressively low 16.8% TO rate (Robinson is at 22.8%).  Continued solid defense and smart decisions will be the catalyst for more playing time for Collins.

Brandon Rush looks to break out of his extended shooting slump.  What's impressive about Rush is his dedication to do whatever he can do to help KU win until his shooting comes back around.  There's no denying he feels the burden of performing well, but all shooters get into slumps from time to time.  Rush is probably not as good as he started last season, but he's clearly better than he's been this season.  But his solid improvement in defense means that once he's out of his slump, his net contributions will be extremely positive for the team.

If Sasha Kaun doesn't have a solid game against Toledo, it may well be time to readjust expectations with him this season.  Sore knee or not, he should have no problem against a weak frontline.  It's been a couple of weeks since his return now, so he should be able to play with at least a positive rating.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

Game Outlook

On both sides of the ball, the advantage should rest with Kansas, but it will be a bigger mismatch when Toledo has the ball.  Most of all, UT should get blocked plenty (without returning the favor), probably won't get many second-chance opportunities, will likely turn it over often, won't shoot all that well and won't get to the freethrow line all that much.  In fact, that means all four of the basic factors (eFG%, TO rate, O-Reb, and FT rate) are clear advantage for Kansas.  Paints a pretty bleak picture for the Rockets.

Interestingly, the lone "advantage" for Toledo is KU's FT%.  You can't attribute too much to a team's FT% defense, however, except that it may indicate a team's ability to foul the right people.  Regardless, KU's FT rate (ratio between freethrows and field goals attempted) is expected to be high anyway, negating the potentially low FT% they shoot.

If Toledo keeps this game close at all, it will likely be in the area of stealing the ball from KU, making some 3FG's, and pestering KU on defense.  Don't expect any kind of offensive explosion from Toledo in this game.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 81-56.

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