Preview: Texas at Kansas

March 2, 2007

Texas at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

More Note that Durant's rating is so much more disproportionate to his teammates than that of Julian Wright.  Texas opponents know that Durant is the one player that will kill them, but he still manages to score nearly 30 points a game.  It's really incredible, but his adjusted efficiency level does not tower over that of Julian Wright.  Why?  Because for all his efforts, Texas still hasn't performed nearly at the level that Kansas has.

There is significant balance throughout the Jayhawk lineup.  The least efficient player is still the 3rd biggest contributor (Rush, ePSAN).  There are forwards at the top of the efficiency chart (ePSAN70), while plenty of guards are near the top for total impact (ePSAN).  You never know who's going to come up big for KU, and that may be what keeps opponents up at night scouting the team.

See my comprehensive player analysis based on conference-only ratings here.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Game Outlook

What a fascinating matchup.  The nation's 3rd most efficient offense (Texas) takes on the #1-rated defense (Kansas) with conference championship implications on the line.  Looking at overall season statistics, we might expect the following for this game:

• UT will struggle shooting except for 3FG's, but UT is expected to take a very high percent of its shots from deep anyway.
• KU should have an easier time with offensive efficiency, as they will keep TO's low, get plenty of second-chance opportunities and make a high percentage from behind the arc.
• Though Texas may not shoot a terribly high percentage there, UT should own the freethrow line in this game.
• It should be an uptempo game. (72 possessions versus NCAA average of 67)

It's not really a question of whether Durant will have a big game.  He always does.  The real question is how hard he has to work for his points and whether his teammates will provide enough support to give them victory.

There's good reason to believe that KU will be efficient on offense this game.  The two factors that have correlated most with KU's offensive efficiency and Texas' defensive efficiency have been eFG% and TO rate.  From the strengths and weaknesses analysis above, we can see that KU is expected to keep its TO's low.  The eFG% will be more of a challenge, but given the expected faster tempo, there should be plenty of fastbreak opportunities and somewhat lax defense that can keep KU's offense flowing.  The fact that the Jayhawks are expected to own the offensive boards will also drive their offensive efficiency higher.

When Texas has the ball, it will mostly be about their eFG%.  Can they shoot well against KU's vaunted defense?  KU hasn't allowed 40 eFG% in its last five games, and hasn't allowed 50 eFG% in its last seven.  Not coincidentally, it was Texas A&M who last accomplished that feat (53.7) in a huge showdown.  We'll see if KU has learned from their lapses in that game.  The freethrow line may also play a significant role for Texas, as the Jayhawks have a tendency to foul more than their opponents.  Durant and Augustin may have a field day at the line if KU isn't careful.

Most of the predictive factors for this game point to a comfortable Jayhawk win.  It's on their home floor, and they're playing for a #1 seed in the NCAA's as well.  The reason it's difficult to believe it will be an easy win for KU is that anything can happen when a team has Kevin Durant, KU failed the last time such a big showdown happened, and Texas is playing for a share of the conference title themselves.  The safest prediction is for this game to fall somewhere between what the stats argue and what the tension dictates.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 81-75.

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