Preview: Tennessee State at Kansas

November 20, 2006

Tennessee State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

I won't say much about Tennessee State, since there's only one game of data there.  As expected, Clarence Matthews was their biggest contributor, and the other important contributor they expect to have this season, Larry Turner, had a good game.  Clearly, the team is not in as good a position as it had expected.  Bruce Price went down with another ACL knee injury (same he suffered after six games last season), so their point guard position is significantly weaker than expected.  Reiley Ervin will be counted upon to do better than he did in the first game.

On the Kansas side, it's very interesting that the frontcourt players are playing most efficiently.  Most everyone felt the KU backcourt was clearly one of the best in the country and hoped the frontcourt could keep pace.  Instead, we see Darrell Arthur leading the charge, followed by Julian Wright and Darnell Jackson.  Maybe that's why Kansas is 2-1 against a fairly easy schedule thus far.  It isn't playing to its strengths just yet.

The early leader this season is Darrell Arthur.  The kid simply scores, rebounds, blocks, and does so efficiently.  If he ever learns to pass the ball and continues to play this well against tougher competition, he'd go down as one of the greatest freshmen ever at Kansas.  Right now, it's not even close who has contributed the most on paper.

Wright bounced back to a decent performance against Towson, while his Northern Arizona gem still carries him into the upper portion of ratings.  DJ's ratings dropped slightly because of a lackluster performance against Towson.

Mario Chalmers has surged back up into the mix with a strong game last night.  There is just no way he will stay down too long.  Expect to see some major ball thefts from him soon ... you can just feel that he's ready to bust out.

Russell Robinson, ever the underrated player on paper, is right there with Mario.  The biggest thing holding RR back on paper is his shooting, and by extension his scoring.  I have no doubt his rating will rise steadily, even though he may never break the Top 4 on such a talented team.  You just have to remember what his role is and how much of it doesn't translate into the stats.  But if his numbers really languish and fall behind the pack, there will be cause for concern.  For now, he's well positioned just not shooting well.

Brandon Rush needs a breakout game.  The Northern Arizona game is indicative of what he can do, so he needs to get out and do it.  Amazing that his contribution is thus far slightly negative, meaning that he's performed slightly below the average college basketball player.

Sherron Collins and Jeremy Case are both capable of turning the game around when they're on from the outside.  SC needs to develop his defense, while Case just needs to find his rhythm.  Obviously, the player with the higher ceiling is Collins, so expect to see a climb for him somewhere in the next 5 games or so.

Rodrick Stewart continues to struggle mightily.  Bill Self may soon have to resign to the fact that Stewart is purely a mop-up guy.

Game Outlook

Efficiency analysis shows only one parameter that aligns to give a clear trend:

• TSU will shoot a lot of 3FG's (not necessarily make lots)

Beyond that, you have to make some educated guesses.  First, KU is clearly the more talented team.  The 6'7" Clarence Matthews is TSU's main individual hope, especially now that Price is out for the season.  But TSU must make a barrage of 3FG's to keep things close, meaning that KU's perimeter defense will be key.  In their first game, TSU was 5-22 from deep, so they could be "due" for a big game.  Not likely though, as Chalmers is healthy again, Robinson will always guard well, and Rush is an extremely capable defender.  Look for the perimeter game for TSU to be neutralized.

The interesting dynamic to see will be whether KU ends up taking lots of 3FG's (as TSU's opponents tended to do last season) or score mostly 2FG's (as KU itself typically does).  The beauty of having such a talented team is that it won't really matter that much.  Kansas should win comfortably regardless of which direction things head.

Personally, I expect to see some big things from the perimeter KU players, for a change.  I look for Chalmers, Rush, and Collins to score plenty.  The big guys will get in on the action, too, just a little less than in the past few games.  But who knows when it's such a big mismatch.  All that matters is that KU should win big.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 88-59.

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