Preview: Rhode Island at Kansas

December 30, 2006

Rhode Island at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

The Rams' two most efficient players have decent ratings, but they still don't crack KU's top 5.  Make no mistake, they are offensive juggernauts.  Both the 6-8 Daniels and 6-2 Baron are sizzling from the field (68 eFG%) and shoot lights out from 3FG's.  Daniels gets defensive rebounds, lots of FT's, and some blocks.  Baron keeps his TO's very low.  The problem is that the Rams have one of the worst defenses in the country, and you can't ignore the fact that Baron and Daniels are primary players.  This should be a good test for KU's vaunted defense, in particular since Jayhawk opponents seem to have a field day from behind the arc this season.

Joe Mbang is an interesting player.  He's another forward who can stroke it from deep but also rebounds well on the offensive glass.  Again, strong offensive game, but does he have the defense to go with it?  Seawright has made his mark with plenty of rebounds and freethrows.  Decent scoring and an ability to swat some shots away make him a decent contributor on the year.

Two players who have the most negative total conributions are Parfait Bitee (6-2 G) and Terence Grier (6-0 G), though Grier has hardly played any minutes.  That should tell you just how poorly he's performed.  Grier is shooting just 30% from the floor, averages less than a point per game, with a less than 1.0 AST:TO ratio.  Meanwhile, Bitee plays over 30 minutes/gm, so his coach obviously feels he's doing something right.  He's not doing that poorly in efficiency, but his very high playing time translates to an overall negative impact rating.  Bitee actually has a stat line somewhat similar to Russell Robinson's.  He scores about 7 ppg, 3 rpg, has a lower AST:TO ratio than Robinson (1.3:1), and doesn't shoot all that well (although his 48 eFG% outpaces Robinson's significantly).  The biggest difference is that KU is a Top 10 team, while Rhode Island languishes in the bottom half of the country.

Top assists man Jon Lucky is out with a broken ankle.

On KU's side, it's a logjam at the top.  Arthur leads the pack, but he's had two consecutive bad games.  It will be interesting to see how he responds.  Ever since he took himself out of the starting lineup, his playing time has gone down significantly and, with it, apparently his confidence.  The Rams don't really play defense, so look for Arthur to flourish inside offensively.

Chalmers has been surging of late.  He's actually overtaken Arthur to lead the team in total impact (ePSAN).  As long as Chalmers keeps his TO's low, makes some steals, and continues to shoot high-percentage shots, he should be at the top of the perfomers' list.  Julian Wright, however, is another story.  He has probably the biggest range of performances on the team, from a dominating display against Florida to a shocking display of futility against Detroit Mercy.  It just goes to show you how good he's been when he's on that he still rates as high as he does.

Darnell Jackson continues to play well overall, though he's coming off a poor performance.  KU will need him this game to keep Rhode Island from getting offensive rebounds.

Sherron Collins and Russell Robinson resume their mythical duel.  Many Jayhawk fans are ready to see the point guard reins passed to Collins, but keep in mind that Robinson hasn't been playing up to his own typical standards of late.  Collins remains inconsistent, rarely having two good games in a row.  As long as Collins is getting about 18-20 minutes a game, his development will continue, and if the evidence supports it, he will get more playing time and control of the floor.  There's plenty of season left to play, including the tough conference matchups.  Sherron will become the player he's destined to be by March Madness.

Sasha Kaun is starting to get consistent again.  He was the only frontcourt player with a decent game against Detroit.  The key with him is whether he's smart about the shots he takes and whether he finishes around the basket.  Foul trouble continues to be a problem for Sasha.

Finally, a misleading rating for Brandon Rush.  He is considered to be one of the best on-the-ball defenders (if not the best), and we know he has the capability of carrying the team on his back.  He just hasn't found his shooting touch yet this season and seems to have a lot less propensity to steal the ball.  Brandon's going to need an extended shooting hot streak to get his season averages back up to a respectable level.  Let's hope this is the beginning of something special. 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

Game Outlook

Here are some things we can reasonably expect:

• Kansas should score very efficiently.  Tough for Jayhawk cynics to believe, but the odds favor an easy time on offense for KU.
• As good an offensive team as URI is, they are not going to get much from their inside game, unless it happens to be on stickbacks.
• Kansas should shoot well, get plenty of offensive rebounds, hang onto the ball well, but probably won't get a ton of trips to the FT line.
• Any chance URI has will be hitting from long range and winning the freethrow line battle.  Of course, a cold shooting night for KU wouldn't hurt.

Up until now, KU's overall schedule has featured opponents with generally stronger defenses than offenses.  Not so this time.  Rhode Island is fantastic on offense and plays "matador defense."  An uptempo game against a soft defensive team may be just what Kansas needs to work out the kinks in its offense while looking more pleasing to the Jayhawk faithfuls' eyes.  The question simply will be, which KU player is going to be the Belle of the (Basket)ball?

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 90-65.

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