Preview: Oral Roberts at Kansas

November 15, 2006

Oral Roberts at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

The player ratings above are based on only one game of data for each team.  So, I won't go into much detail for this game.  Suffice it to say, KU has a boatload of talented players, while ORU will depend mostly on its trusted seniors, Green and Tutt.  Don't be deceived by Green's low ratings above ... that's just one game.  If you look at per-possession statistics for players across the country, Green was in the Top 500 for nearly every category, from eFG% to rebounding percentage, freethrow rate, and even low turnover rate.  He's a force down low, and in particular against KU's somewhat depleted center position, he could do some damage.  Tutt is a good perimeter shooter and scorer, but his percentages aren't very deadly.  If he's on, he could put a dent into the final margin.  ORU really doesn't have much quality depth beyond these two players.

On the Jayhawk side, the story is talent, speed, and depth.  KU plays a five-man perimeter rotation starring the preseason All-American, Brandon Rush, and last season't most efficient player, Mario Chalmers.  The anchor though is point-man Russell Robinson.  Often called the MVP of the team by his coach and teammates, RR keys the defensive intensity and offensive cohesion that will be key to KU's killer instincts.  As for Rush, a collective sigh of relief could be heard across the heartland when Brandon showed up with fire and passion in the first game of the season.  After a late-season swoon, many felt that Rush's best days were behind him.  If he shows up with the same aggressiveness and intensity as he did last game, Rush will live up to his All-American hype and vie for MVP honors this season.  Chalmers is recovering from toe problems.  Nearly back to full strength, he should be more effective against ORU than he was against Northern Arizona.

Game Outlook

Whether this game is a KU blowout or a somewhat closer affair may hinge upon the play of the KU frontcourt.  It will be up to Jackson and Arthur to force Caleb Green into turnovers (he had 8 in his first game this season) and block him out on the glass.  If KU can turn it into a track meet, they gain a significant advantage, since ORU really has no depth.  ORU really doesn't have any strengths that correspond to KU weaknesses except maybe that Kaun is missing in the middle to guard Green.  It would not appear that ORU has much of a chance in Allen Fieldhouse against one of the nation's most talented teams.  Given that everything clicked for KU in its first game, though, it may be time for a few shooting slumps from the Jayhawk side.  The outcome isn't in doubt, just the severity of the beating.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 85-58.

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