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Preview: Oklahoma State at Kansas

January 9, 2007

Oklahoma State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

  Kansas Oklahoma State

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 13-2 14-1
AP Rank 6 9
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		 9 36
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		 29 12
RPI
(not a good judge of strength, only used for rough estimate of strength of opponent)		 31 14
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		 vs Florida (# 3) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Southern Cal (# 29) W 72-62		 vs Pittsburgh (# 22) W 95-89 (OT)
vs Missouri State (# 24) W 73-70 (OT)

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win 75-66  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 8  
Analysis of Variance
(uses team performance and consistency over last 10 games)		 Win by 8.5
98.4% chance of victory		  
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) Win 74-62
87% chance of victory		  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Player ratings and player analysis for this game are exclusively provided to Phog.net.
The same portion of my previews will not always be the ones I provide to that site.
Some future games will have this section presented here again.

 


 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics
(from Pomeroy)

Kansas

Oklahoma State
  • Offense #41 - Defense #4 - Tempo #118
  • Dominant offensive rebounding (#24)
  • Ranks #14 in eFG% allowed, and #5 in 2FG% allowed
  • Ranked #21 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #19 in STL
  • Dominates the blocking game, #8 in avoiding BLK and #2 in making
  • Ranks #297 in % of FGA's that are 3FG
  • Ranks #46 in 2FG%

Individual Player Highlights:

  • Russell Robinson - #14 FT rate, #184 STL rate
  • Julian Wright - #130 D-Reb%, #110 BLK rate
  • Mario Chalmers - #13 STL rate
  • Darrell Arthur - #51 O-Reb%, #121 TO rate (good), #24 BLK rate, #191 STL rate
  • Darnell Jackson - #19 O-Reb%, #181 D-Reb%

 
  • Offense #31 - Defense #49 - Tempo #146
  • Very strong offensively in three of "four factors": eFG% #22, O-Reb% #33, and FT-rate #19
  • Ranks #41 in forcing TO's
  • One of nation's best at 2FG% (#8) and FT% (#25)
  • Excellent 3FG% defense (#36)
  • Lets opponents steal too often (#285) but gets plenty of steals (#41)
  • Limits percent of opponents' FG's that are assisted (#24)

Individual Player Highlights:

  • Mario Boggan - #59 eFG%, #198 O-Reb%, #197 TO rate (good)
  • Terrel Harris - #150 STL rate
  • Marcus Dove - #35 eFG%
  • Byron Eaton - #120 STL rate
  • David Monds - #146 D-Reb%
  • Kenny Cooper - #2 O-Reb%
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely more on 3FG's.
  • On offense, OSU relies heavily on FT's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents rely an unusually high amount on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Strengths and weaknesses analysis for this game are exclusively provided to Phog.net.
The same portion of my previews will not always be the ones I provide to that site.
Some future games will have this section presented here again.

Game Outlook

Oklahoma State isn't very deep, just eight players in the rotation.  They rely disproportionately on Mario Boggan to carry the weight but also on JamesOn Curry.  The performance of these two players must be key in this game.

Here are some things we can reasonably expect:

  • KU should get plenty of turnovers, and a lot of them off steals, which should lead to some fastbreak opportunities, although KU may be the victim of a significant number of OSU steals as well.
  • KU should have a fairly comfortable time rebounding offensively.
  • There should be a strong blocking presence inside for the Jayhawks.
  • KU probably won't make a high percentage of its 3FG's.

OSU's opponent's offensive efficiency has correlated somewhat well with the opponent's ability to rebound offensively.  This bodes very well for Kansas.  On the other hand, KU's opponent's offensive efficiency has correlated very highly with eFG% and offensive rebounding.  These are two categories in which OSU excels.  KU's opponent's offensive efficiency has correlated somewhat well with the opponent's ability not to turn it over.  Strengths and weaknesses analysis for this game show that OSU should turn the ball over often, which bodes well for KU's defensive efficiency to help offset the challenges mentioned earlier.

Ultimately, it's a home game for the Jayhawks, and I expect the energy of the crowd and fresh start of a new phase of the season to boost KU players.  It should be hard fought, but I believe Kansas will wear down OSU and take this one.

 

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 72-64.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
Boggan and Curry must combine to shoot well for OSU Boggan and Curry to combine for >50 eFG%    
KU must control OSU's usually prolific offensive rebounding and get back to doing well on their own offensive glass OSU to grab no more than 34% of available offensive rebounds, and KU to grab at least 40% (calculated as O-Reb / [O-Reb + opponent's D-Reb])    
The crowd will go into a frenzy if OSU turns it over too often, especially on steals OSU to keep turnovers to 22% of possessions (approx 15 or fewer TO's)    


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