Preview: Northern Arizona at Kansas

November 10, 2006

Northern Arizona at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

This is the season many Jayhawk fans have been waiting for.  At least the season many of us envision is the one we've been waiting for.  Almost no other team in the country can boast of more talent than what Bill Self has assembled for this season.  From top to bottom, KU's roster is Rock-Chalk full of McDonald's All-Americans, Preseason All-Americans, Preseason Conference Co-Players of the Year, #1-rated stealer in the country, etc.  No excuses this season for a first-round exit.  All eyes are on the Final Four.  And so it begins ...

The Mid-Major UNA Lumberjacks storm into Lawrence with a relatively strong backcourt, serviceable frontcourt, and good depth.  Although they lost their leading scorer, UNA returns four starters, including an all-conference type in Boykin.  Of all returning players, his contributions were far and away the most last season and most efficient.  But given his team's relative weakness, his adjusted ratings still don't hold a candle to KU's bright stars.  Sir is a special sharpshooter.  He led the nation last season in 3FG percentage (49%), making 93 of them.  Nathan Geiser, one of two new Juco transfers, adds to the Lumberjacks' outside shooting abilities, but he has big shoes to fill.  Last season's leading scorer, Golob, has taken his 71 three-pointers away by graduating.

Inside, UNA is a bit thin.  Although at least a couple of their players are 6-9, they weigh in at around 210.  The heaviest players are Hensley and Sir (225), but they're both in the 6-6 height range.  They're probably lucky KU's Sasha Kaun is out and that C.J. Giles was dismissed.  It will be key to see who steps up for the Lumberjacks in addition to the dependable Boykin.  Landry, Sir, and McCurdy all seem like prime candidates based on their ratings from last season.

Kansas is just plain loaded.  How loaded?  Looking at last season's final ePSAN70 measure of efficiency, which gives more emphasis to recent games, the lowest-rated returning player is Brandon Rush.  And he's a Preseason All-American.  Rush's production tailed off a great deal in the second half of last season, but his All-American potential is there if he can return to his early-season form.  On the perimeter, KU has three fast, multi-dimensional guards.  Robinson is the "heart and soul" type of player.  Players look up to him because he usually makes good decisions, not too many mistakes, and has a tough mentality.  It also doesn't hurt that he's one of the best on-the-ball defenders in the country with one of the best rates of stealing.  Chalmers is lightening quick with his hands on defense (led the nation in rate of stealing) and can really change the game with his perimeter shooting (3-pt shootout champion in high school).  He is coming off a sprained big toe, so he may not be at 100% strength.  Still, he was the highest-rated player on the team at the end of last season.  The final piece of the perimeter is freshman Sherron Collins, who looks to be one of the quickest with the ball that we've seen in some time.  Look for him to contribute more as he feels out the college game better.  But he can drive, dish, and really has a sweet stroke from 3FG.

Inside is where things are a little complicated for the Jayhawks.  At the power forward spot, Julian Wright is a dynamic force to be reckoned with.  One of the best passing big men in the game, Wright possesses the gift of making great things happen.  He can put up big numbers in any stat category (except 3FG).  Unfortunately, he's a bit thin to cover opposing power forwards, but he more than makes up for it with his positioning, footwork, and hustle.  Julian could easily be a lottery pick in the upcoming draft, but he's said he will stick around at least through his junior season.  Wright is extremely talented but doesn't really play very "big" inside.  That's why Sasha Kaun will be key to this season, especially in light of C.J. Giles' dismissal.  Kaun was one of the most efficient players last season because he shot well from the field, got lots of rebounds, and made very few mistakes (extremely low turnover rate).  He's out with a knee problem until probably late November to early December.  In his place, Self is looking to Darnell Jackson and Darrell Arthur to pick up the slack.  The junior, Jackson, needs to focus on getting rebounds, stickbacks, and clogging the middle on defense (where he is most suspect).  He is also a rare breed ... an accurate freethrow shooting big man.  Arthur comes with great expectations ... usually the case when Bill Self pronounces you are the "most talented player [he's] ever recruited."  Though quite lean, Arthur can really sky for rebounds and came to college equipped with at least some low-post moves.  We'll see how he handles playing defense against the big boys.  Not that Northern Arizona will be a test in that department.

Game Outlook

A few things we should expect:

• Tempo should be quite fast.  KU has the personnel to really run, and UNA played even more possessions on average than KU last season.  Both teams have good depth, so they'll run all night.
• Sir will take a lot of 3FG's.  Whether he makes them could be the difference between a blowout or a closer game.

It is very difficult to predict too much in this game simply because KU hasn't really gelled yet, and UNA hasn't played any games.  Judging from the talent level, this should be a walk in the park for Kansas.  UNA would have to shoot lights out from the perimeter and hope that KU makes mistakes and fails to capitalize on easy opportunities (TO's and FT's).  But really, there are just too many weapons loaded for the Jayhawks ... if one isn't firing, Self will just lock and load another one.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 93-69.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy