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Preview: Nebraska at Kansas
February 17, 2007
Nebraska at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)
| Kansas | Nebraska | |
|
Talent Indicators |
||
| Div I Records | 22-4 | 13-9 |
| AP Rank | 9 | NR |
| Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily) |
4 | 66 |
| Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) |
8 | 78 |
| RPI | 16 | 80 |
| Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy) |
vs Florida (# 2) W 82-80 (OT) vs Southern Cal (# 29) W 72-62 |
vs Creighton (# 43) W 73-61 @ Missouri (# 50) W 66-61 |
|
Predictions |
||
| Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 16 Est. Projection: 74-58 |
|
|
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings) |
Win by 14.3 | |
| Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 15.4 | |
|
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) |
Win 72-57 94% chance of victory |
|
| Last 10 Games (Venue
Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location. If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, fewer than 10 total games are used.) |
Win by 17 99.9% chance of victory |
|
| Weighted Average of All
Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10) |
Win by 15.6 Est. Projection: 73-57 |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative Season
Explanation of
Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally
KansasePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70
possessions)
|
| PLAYER | ePSAN70 | ePSAN |
| Julian Wright | 6.58 | 115.14 |
| Darnell Jackson | 5.71 | 55.63 |
| Brady Morningstar* | 5.42 | 8.73 |
| Sherron Collins | 4.51 | 64.63 |
| Russell Robinson | 4.37 | 82.07 |
| Mario Chalmers | 4.19 | 79.99 |
| Darrell Arthur | 3.78 | 47.80 |
| Brandon Rush | 3.52 | 75.01 |
| Sasha Kaun | 3.48 | 38.08 |
| Jeremy Case* | 2.09 | 4.09 |
| Rodrick Stewart* | 1.56 | 4.17 |
| Matt Kleinmann* | -1.77 | -2.14 |
| Brennan Bechard* | -2.57 | -0.83 |
| Brad Witherspoon* | -13.67 | -3.22 |
* Rating not based on enough data.
Nebraska
cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70
possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
| PLAYER | cPSAN70 | cPSAN |
| Aleks Maric | 5.12 | 73.18 |
| Choul Laam* | 4.17 | 0.84 |
| Jim Ledsome | 3.79 | 12.61 |
| Marcus Perry | 3.45 | 38.63 |
| Ryan Anderson | 3.36 | 41.67 |
| Charles Richardson Jr. | 3.11 | 59.84 |
| Jay-R Strowbridge | 0.67 | 5.25 |
| Paul Velander | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Sek Henry | -0.42 | -5.41 |
| Mike Smith* | -0.55 | -1.00 |
| Chris Balham* | -0.70 | -1.61 |
| Kyle Marks* | -1.30 | -3.10 |
| Kris Douse | -3.03 | -4.63 |
| Nick Krenk* | -3.10 | -2.16 |
| Glenn White* | -3.82 | -1.12 |
| Ben Nelson* | -5.99 | -0.81 |
* Rating not based on enough data.
Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)
Not included here. See my free Phog.net article for conference-only player ratings and analysis.
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis
| ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | ||
| Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Nebraska |
| Nebraska OREB** | ||
| Nebraska % own 2FGA's blocked** | ||
| Kansas 3pt FG% | ||
| Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked** | ||
| Kansas OREB** | ||
| Kansas eFG%** | ||
| Nebraska TO rate** | ||
| Nebraska PTS/Poss | ||
| Nebraska FT% | ||
| Nebraska % Poss STL by Opp | ||
| Kansas FT% | ||
| Kansas PTS/Poss | ||
| Kansas 2pt FG% | ||
| Nebraska 2pt FG% | ||
| Nebraska eFG% | ||
| Nebraska FT Rate | ||
| Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | ||
| Nebraska 3pt FG% | ||
| Kansas TO rate** | ||
| Kansas FT Rate | ||
| Nebraska will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt |
| Kansas plays faster tempo than Nebraska |
Game Outlook
Some things we can reasonably expect from the statistical analyses above:
- Rebounding should be owned by Kansas on both sides.
- If there's any blocking in this game, it will be NU shots that are swatted away.
- Both teams will turn it over frequently.
- Kansas should shoot well from the floor, particularly from behind the arc.
- KU might not use the freethrow line very much.
The macro-level indicators for this game certainly make it seem like a walk in the park for the Jayhawks. If NU can play with the relaxed attitude they did for most of the second half of the game in Lincoln, and Kansas fails to show fire against a weaker opponent, the game could end up closer than expected. It should not be in question with 10-12 minutes to go, however. If it is, then KU probably didn't bring its "A" game, and someone on NU's team has been going gangbusters from 3FG.
Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 73-57.
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For |
|||
|
Keys to Watch For |
Metric |
Result |
Edge (Comments) |
| KU has a tendency to let teams get hot from the perimeter in Allen Fieldhouse. | NU to shoot 38% from 3FG | ||
| NU practically abandons the ball when they miss a shot on offense, so don't count on O-REB% to be any help. And they are expected to TO often, so that leaves only two factors - eFG% and FT rate | NU to shoot at least 48 eFG% and outscore KU at the FT line by 8 points. | ||
| NU must get off to a better start to have a chance. | NU within 5 points around the 10:00 1st half mark. | ||
|
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