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Preview: Missouri at Kansas

January 15, 2007

Missouri at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

  Kansas Missouri

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 15-2 11-5
AP Rank 6 NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		 6 57
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		 18 54
RPI
(not a good judge of strength, only used for rough estimate of strength of opponent)		 21 87
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		 vs Florida (# 1) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Southern Cal (# 31) W 72-62		 vs Arkansas (# 28) W 86-64
vs Mississippi St (# 45) W 83-75

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 16
Projection: 80-64		  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 14.5  
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)		 Win 80-64
92% chance of victory		  
Last 10 Games
(uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 5 other most recent games regardless of location)		 Win by 14.5
99.6% chance of victory		  
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 30% Sagarin + 30% Pomeroy + 10% Last 10)		 Win by 15.7
Projection: 80-64		  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Player ratings and player analysis for this game are exclusively provided to Phog.net.
The same portion of my previews will not always be the ones I provide to that site.
Some future games will have this section presented here again.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics
(from Pomeroy)

Kansas

Missouri
  • Offense #39 - Defense #2 - Tempo #111
  • Very strong offensive rebounding (#33)
  • Ranks #12 in eFG% allowed, and #3 in 2FG% allowed
  • Excellent 2FG% (#41)
  • Ranked #33 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #16 in STL
  • Dominates the blocking game, #21 in avoiding BLK and #2 in making
  • Ranks #310 in % of FGA's that are 3FG

Individual Player Highlights:

  • NOTE: These reflect data through Jan 6 - update not yet available
  • Russell Robinson - #14 FT rate, #184 STL rate
  • Julian Wright - #130 D-Reb%, #110 BLK rate
  • Mario Chalmers - #13 STL rate
  • Darrell Arthur - #51 O-Reb%, #121 TO rate (good), #24 BLK rate, #191 STL rate
  • Darnell Jackson - #19 O-Reb%, #181 D-Reb%
  • Offense #85 - Defense #41 - Tempo #7
  • Leads the nation in making steals (16.2% of poss)
  • 2nd best in nation at forcing turnovers (28.6% of poss)
  • Ranks #276 in keeping opponents off FT line
  • Only #271 in 3FG% allowed
  • Avoids blocks like the plague (#11)
  • Ranks #34 in minimizing % of opponent FG's that are assisted

Individual Player Highlights:

  • NOTE: These reflect data through Jan 6 - update not yet available
  • Stefhon Hannah - #86 AST rate, #5 STL rate
  • Matt Lawrence - #2 eFG%
  • Keon Lawrence - #110 TO rate (good), #88 STL rate
  • Kalen Grimes - #15 O-Reb%, #65 D-Reb%, #48 BLK rate
  • Leo Lyons - #91 O-Reb%, #173 D-Reb%, #193 BLK rate
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely heavily on 3FG's.
  • On offense, MU relies more than the average amount on 3FG's at the expense of FT's, while its opponents rely an unusually low amount on 2FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Strengths and weaknesses analysis for this game are exclusively provided to Phog.net.
The same portion of my previews will not always be the ones I provide to that site.
Some future games will have this section presented here again.

 

Game Outlook

Here are some things we can reasonably expect:

  • This should be an uptempo game.
  • There will be turnovers aplenty, with Missouri getting tons of steals and KU getting a decent share as well.
  • Rebounding advantage should be substantially in favor of Kansas, especially given Missouri's difficulties with it on the road.
  • KU should have little chance of getting blocked inside, although their usual blocking prowess on defense will get tested against a Missouri team that rarely gets shots swatted away.
  • Both teams should be able to make a high percentage of their 3FG's, while MU will struggle mightily taking 2FG's.

So, if everything goes according to plan, this should be one of the most satisfying games for KU fans, as they can watch their team race by their bitter rival with three-point bombs, fast breaks from steals and turnovers and plenty of KU rebounding to keep the ball in the hands of the "good guys."

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 84-63.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
MU's best chance to keep things close is to get KU to turn it over and then convert fast breaks KU to commit TO's on more than 22% of possessions (this game expected to be 77 possessions = more than 17 TO's)    
In an uptempo game, a significant advantage on the boards can be a huge boost to efficiency. Either team to hold at least a 8% advantage in O-Reb%    
MU shouldn't have a major inside attack, so it absolutely must make a high percentage of its 3FG's MU to make at least 37% on 3FG's    
If KU is to realize its rebounding and 2FG% defense advantage inside, the true KU "big" men must stay out of foul trouble and in the game. Kaun, Jackson, Arthur to play a combined 60 minutes    


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