Preview: Kansas vs Oklahoma - Big XII Tournament

March 8, 2007

Kansas vs Oklahoma (Big XII Tournament)

	Kansas	Oklahoma
Talent Indicators
Div I Records	27-4	14-14
AP Rank	2	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	2	29
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	5	79
RPI	15	106
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Florida (# 4) W 82-80 (OT) @ Oklahoma (# 29) W 67-65	vs Texas Tech (# 58) W 75-61 vs Oklahoma St (# 70) W 67-60
Predictions This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 10.5 Est. Projection: 71-60
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	TBD
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 7.8 (Semi-home advantage for OU)
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 66-59
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location. If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, fewer than 10 total games are used.)	Win by 18.3 99.91% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)	Win by 11.3 Est. Projection: 69-58 (Does not include Prediction Tracker)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Julian Wright	6.55	140.93
Darnell Jackson	6.27	70.14
Jeremy Case* (OUT)	5.38	10.93
Mario Chalmers	5.33	123.45
Brady Morningstar*	4.78	8.60
Sasha Kaun	4.55	59.85
Darrell Arthur	4.39	64.47
Russell Robinson	4.30	87.94
Sherron Collins	4.25	77.39
Brandon Rush	3.63	91.35
Brennan Bechard*	2.92	1.68
Rodrick Stewart*	1.86	6.48
Matt Kleinmann*	0.02	0.02
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.82	-2.25

* Rating not based on enough data.

Oklahoma

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Kellen Sampson*	6.38	4.56
Nate Carter	5.20	79.87
Longar Longar	4.11	68.73
Tony Crocker	3.10	47.00
David Godbold	2.95	54.62
Austin Johnson	2.42	38.58
Michael Neal	2.38	42.90
Taylor Griffin	1.56	24.02
Bobby Maze	0.84	7.15
Keith Clark (OUT)	0.64	1.98
Chris Walker	-0.31	-1.66
Beau Gerber*	-1.41	-1.17

* Rating not based on enough data.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Oklahoma
Oklahoma 3pt FG%**
Oklahoma eFG%**
Oklahoma FT Rate
Oklahoma 2pt FG%**
Oklahoma TO rate**
Oklahoma % Poss STL by Opp**
Oklahoma % own 2FGA's blocked**
	Oklahoma PTS/Poss
Oklahoma FT%**
	Oklahoma OREB
	Kansas OREB
	Kansas 3pt FG%
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Kansas 2pt FG%
	Kansas FT Rate
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Kansas eFG%
	Kansas TO rate
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas FT%

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Kansas plays faster tempo than Oklahoma

Game Outlook

Here are some things we can reasonably expect:

No clear advantages for OU in this game.
Oklahoma should shoot poorly from everywhere - inside, outside and freethrow line (and won't get there much).
OU should turn it over plenty, especially due to KU steals.
KU won't shoot many 3FG's.

This should be a huge struggle for OU to score. The reason they hung with the Jayhawks in the first meeting was the energy from their crowd in Norman. If the Oklahoma City crowd is extremely enthusiastic and can drown out KU fans, then this could be a tad bit closer than expected. But based on OU's non-home performances and KU's recent tear, this is expected to be a comfortable win for Kansas.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 67-55.

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