Preview: Kansas vs Florida

November 25, 2006

Kansas vs Florida (Las Vegas, NV)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

A team that is operating on a class all its own, as Florida has so far this season, will naturally have all kinds of amazing player ratings ... and rightfully so.  Florida comes to bat in this much-ballyhooed contest with a stellar lineup from top to bottom.  These guys haven't lost in 17 games dating back to last season.  As defending national champions, they've been tested and play incredibly well together.

The numbers from this season alone argue that Florida has three players who perform at a higher efficiency rate than any Kansas player, although one of them (Speights) only averages about 9 minutes per game.  The Gator attack is anchored by their tremendous frontcourt of Horford, Noah, and Brewer.  Last season, Noah was a significant national force in nearly every possession-based category, from shooting to rebounding to blocks.  He was an incredibly efficient player inside, with a +9.00 cPSAN70 going into the national title game.  Horford is playing at that level so far this season, averaging 14 points per game in only 21 minutes, while shooting an incredible 74% from the field, scoring 1.72 points per shot.  Both Noah and Horford are big and athletic.  Brewer, meanwhile, is no slouch, averaging double figures in just under 23 minutes per game, with a 2.44 AST:TO ratio ... excellent for a 6-9 Forward.  If these three players don't scare KU fans, nothing will.

But don't forget the Gators also fire away from the outside with plenty of weapons.  Taurean Green is shooting 12-21 from behind the arc (shot 38.4% there last season).  Walter Hodge has shot lights out (7-10) from deep also.  Who could forget Lee Humphrey, shooting a measly 40% from 3FG.  Brewer's numbers are deceptively low, as he is a vital part of this team's play.  Look for him to have a breakout game anytime now ... likely against Kansas.  You really can't ignore anyone on Florida's team.  Clearly, these kind of numbers can't continue indefinitely, but you have to admit they are impressive no matter who the opponents have been.

On the Kansas side, things are beginning to shake out a little bit more clearly.  While Darrell Arthur continues to be KU's most efficient player, Julian Wright has contributed the most so far (ePSAN) on an absolute scale.  Arthur showed his vulnerability against Ball State when he wasn't able to get much going offensively on the low blocks.  When the KU offense isn't flowing smoothly, Arthur doesn't appear to be a shot creator himself, although he put down an incredible spin-move and left-handed dunk last night that left his defender shaking his head.  His nerves against Florida will probably not make for a lot of one-on-one offense.  Look for him to be the recipient of great passes if things are going well for the Jayhawks.

Julian Wright was a rebounding machine against Ball State and really has been one of the key engines for KU this season.  He's going to have his hands FULL against Florida's frontcourt.  His tendency to allow his man to back him down on the low post will simply not work against the Gators.  He'll likely have to get help double teaming, which doesn't bode well since Florida's big men are great passers.

Mario Chalmers is finally coming into his own, with a solid game last night.  His shooting touch is returning and will be extremely key if KU is to have any hopes of pulling off the upset.  He's the team's best at helping KU maintain possession (combination of his AST, STL, BLK ratings).  He is an incredible stealer and could turn things around in this game, if he's on.

Darnell Jackson faded a bit against Ball State and needs to get back to fundamentals, rebounding, and stop trying to make fancy plays with his back to the basket.  DJ's numbers would also look a lot better if he could get back to his usual 75% FT shooting level.

Russell Robinson is steadily performing better and better.  When KU needs something, he's there ... a timely 3FG, solid trip to the FT line to make both freethrows, or whatever.  Although he only had 2 AST's against Ball State, he only committed 2 TO's on an extremely ugly night.  For the season, that's 27 AST to 8 TO ... stellar.  Against Florida, he'd better be distributing the ball, because if KU is forced to rely on him for offense, something is going terribly wrong.

Sherron Collins has the ability to change the game with a hot 3FG shooting streak.  He also has a tendency to change the game with forced drives to the basket (usually resulting in a charging foul), but he's learning fast.  On the big national stage against the nation's top team, we'll find out what he's really made of.  Don't count him out from being one of KU's shining stars if he keeps his poise.

Brandon Rush nearly put together a solid game against Ball State ... but the FT line was a nightmare once again.  It's hard to imagine how a smooth shooter like Rush can go 3-7 at the line, and only 60% on the season from there.  But he had another solid game of rebounding and double-figure scoring.  Problem is, he only shot 3-10 from the field (2-5 from 3FG was good though), and he did have 4 TO's.  This game is Brandon's chance to show the country he has not left the building, that he deserves all the preseason accolades, and that he has the fire and passion to help carry this team.  KU may get blown away inside if it's not careful, but Rush should take it upon himself to dominate the mid-range and perimeter.

Just the fact that Sasha Kaun is available is a minor miracle.  The unconditioned 6-11 Center hasn't gotten his starting job back yet because he's not ready.  But his size will be immensely helpful down low against UF's imposing frontcourt.  Sasha needs to back off on the fouls though.  He seems to get a whistle the moment he steps on the court, followed by another after he misses a shot and feels he needs to get the rebound. Before you know it, he's back on the bench and unable to do much of anything.  That's the current reality.  If he were at full strength, you'd see the reality of last season when he was one of the most efficient players on the team.  If he can play 10 minutes without foul trouble and TO's, he will give KU a fighting chance to stay alive.

Game Outlook

A few things we can expect from the efficiency analysis above:

• Tempo will likely be average
• UF should win the turnover battle, since they don't really struggle there

The Gators want this game to be played out inside the paint.  They have three dominating players there, and they know Kansas is somewhat thinned by the departure of Giles (dismissed) and still-recovering Kaun.  Kansas just doesn't value each possession the way it should, so if it does lose the TO battle as indicated by the analysis above, it will have to do all the other things to make up for it.  Namely, KU would need to shoot a high percentage, rebound on the offensive glass, and make good use of the FT line.  None of these three will be easy for the Jayhawks.  Rebounding against UF's big bodies will be a challenge, and the FT line has been an adventure all season (66.7%).  The one factor KU has most control over is whether they get quality shots so their percentage is high.  Whether that's from inside or outside, they need to get good shots off, because they may not get too many second chances.

Brandon Rush could change this game if he shows up ready to play.  He's the only KU player who can light it up from the outside or inside and has the stamina to play almost all 40 minutes.  His head has to be in the game.  Meanwhile, Florida has any number of stars from its national championship team it can call upon to carry it.  It is difficult to see multiple Florida players showing up unprepared.  They have been looking forward to this game for some time as the challenge that will show them where they truly stand.  One can only hope KU players show up so we don't see another Duke-Texas style blowout like we saw last season.

If both teams play well, it will actually be a close game as Florida dominates inside, while KU pours it on from the perimeter.  The 3-pt shot could be a great equalizer in that case.  But if Kansas turns in anything less than a strong 40-minute effort, this should be either a comfortable win for Florida or an embarrassing loss for KU.  The early-season form KU has displayed just doesn't provide the evidence that they're ready to face the Gators today.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Florida wins 79-65.

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