Preview: Kansas vs Ball State

November 23, 2006

Kansas vs Ball State (Las Vegas, NV)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

The only players with significant playing time who have positive overall ratings for Ball State are Jalon Perryman nad Anthony Newell.  Unfortunately for them, Chris Ames is out with a broken jaw.  In the first three games, there isn't a whole lot of great play going on outside of Perryman.  He is doing pretty much everything well except maybe 3FG shooting, which is unfortunate since he is a 6-4 shooting guard.  He has managed to avoid TO's so far, though we'll see if that trend continues against KU's tough defense.

Steve Horton and D'Andre Peyton have so-so numbers in the first 3 games.  Horton is passing extremely well (7:1 AST:TO ratio!) but is shooting miserably (29% overall).  Peyton is struggling with TO's and somewhat subpar shooting.

The other major player, Peyton Stovall (6-1 G), averages nearly 32 min/g but is really hurting with his shooting.  He does have a fair AST:TO ratio of 1.8:1, but with all the minutes he's playing, his productivity is just not keeping pace ... at least on paper.  Ball St. followers probably have a different feel for his play.

For KU, things are starting to get back to normal after a tough early loss.  Leading the way in the ratings are freshman dynamo Darrell Arthur and highlight-magnet Julian Wright.  They both dominate the stats but in slightly different ways.  Arthur is more of a scoring and rebounding machine up front, while Wright does everything from AST to STL to BLK, all while scoring and rebounding at a nice clip.  It is somewhat surprising that KU's top 3 performers are all frontline players, when everyone expected KU's backcourt to be its biggest strength.

Darnell Jackson continues to produce.  He relies a lot upon others creating his opportunities, but he is converting and showing up in the right place at the right time.  Meanwhile, Russell Robinson continues to be the team's heart and soul.  As of today, Robinson is one of two players (Wright) whose game-to-game rating variability are significant in accounting for KU's team variability.  He is extremely important to KU's game, but it would be oh so nice if he could shoot better.

Sherron Collins had himself a stellar game against Tennessee State, going 4-6 from behind the arc.  Sasha Kaun is being eased back into things after a partially torn patellar tendon.  He played 9 minutes the last game and showed that he is ready to be an efficient contributor.  Look for his +1.42 efficiency rating to climb steadily from here and probably nestle somewhere around the +4 level.

Brandon Rush is clearly talented and very capable of changing the game.  Opponents will focus on him given his national reputation, so some of the depressed rating you see is simply that.  But it is increasingly obvious that he is playing nowhere near what he's capable of and what many fans expected.  Although his overall averages look pretty good right now (scoring, rebounding, shooting percentages), the dynamics of each game have been such that his contributions were not as important when he provided them, and his lack of contributions came at particularly important times (i.e., ORU loss).  Regardless, it is extremely unlikely that Rush's efficiency rating will hover this low for very long.  A simple law of averages would say he is due for some really good games over the next couple of weeks.  I'm sure KU hopes it starts this weekend.

Game Outlook

A few things we can expect from the efficiency analysis above:

• KU will own the offensive glass
• BSU will not shoot a high percentage from the field
• KU is likely to turn the ball over often
• Tempo should be somewhat slow
• BSU won't block many shots
• KU will score more than usual from the inside (or at least 2FG's)

Keep in mind that the only adjusted figures for efficiency are the overall offense/defense and tempo.  All the other stuff (i.e., offensive rebounding, eFG%, TO's) are from raw figures.  So, that means we have to realize that Ball State's specific category strengths have come while playing an extremely weak schedule (N. Colorado, Prairie View, Chattanooga).  And although KU's schedule hasn't been much more impressive, it's strong adjusted figures for offense and defense make its strengths in other categories more plausible.

With Sasha Kaun available for some minutes now, KU should be able to dominate Ball State inside.  Any perimeter scoring for the Jayhawks would be icing on the proverbial cake.  And it's not hard to imagine that happening, just that KU will probably focus on its inside game first.  Also, keep in mind that KU plays Florida the next night, so if they are comfortably ahead in the 2nd half, the backups should get lots of playing time.  That may keep the score a bit closer than you'd normally expect.

If BSU is to have any chance at keeping it close, it has to be forcing KU turnovers, keeping the tempo ultra slow, and hoping KU doesn't shoot well from the field.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 78-55.  (incidentally, Vegas odds were not out when I made this prediction ... eerily similar)

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