Preview: Kansas at South Carolina

January 6, 2007

Kansas at South Carolina (Columbia, SC)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

The natural inclination, when examining USC's lineup, is to look at their scoring point guard, Tre Kelley.  (NOTE: Kelley is day-to-day and may not play in this game ... I'll assume he does play at full strength, and you can discount for his absence if he can't.)  After all, he's their leading scorer, #13 in the nation for AST per possession, has a 2.5:1 AST:TO ratio and shoots 50 eFG%.  Yet, in my ratings his overall efficiency is only third best on his team.  The biggest reason is that, for all his efforts, USC is still not rated that strong.  Kelley is one of the two players on his team who play 35+ minutes per game.  So, a lot of that responsibility for the team's average results fall on his shoulders.  Having watched none of the Gamecocks' games this year, I will easily concede that this rating could be shortchanging Kelley if his individual defensive efforts have been superb and the kind that don't get recognized on any boxscores (i.e., great on-the-ball defense without many steals, help defense, taking charges).  In any event, Kelley uses about 29% of his team's possessions, so his performance is usually a very strong indicator of how the team is doing offensively.  He hasn't shot the 3FG very well this season (30%) but is otherwise a very efficient offensive player.  Kelley is definitely on a hot streak, scoring 20+ in 3 of the last 4 games, making at two 3FG's in each.

cPSAN70 efficiency ratings indicate that Brandon Wallace has been the man for the Gamecocks.  Wallace has been an "iron man" playing 91.5% of the team's minutes, shooting 55.8 eFG%, doing excellent on rebounds (esp. defensive), getting FT's, and tons of blocks.  Extremely efficient player, but his rating is not as stellar as that of an equally efficient player on a stronger team.  Wallace has double-figure rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games, but he's struggled at the FT line of late.  Though he likes to shoot the 3FG, he's not very good there.  Fortunately for USC, he's taken very few attempts in the last four games.  Maybe he's finally learned one of his limitations.

Archie looks like a talented freshman, shooting efficiently (57 eFG%), rebounding nicely, and even has a nice FT touch (79%).  Dwayne Day has struggled with only 39 eFG%, but he has kept his TO's down.  Baniulis has really played poorly in limited playing time.

Sheldon and Raley-Ross are both good shooters and efficient offensive players.  Raley-Ross adds rebounding to his positives, while Sheldon shoots over 90% at the FT line.

Kansas has a much more balanced attack, with three players in the regular rotation who all have higher ratings than USC's top-rated Wallace.  Arthur has been slipping fast the last several games, mostly as a result of poor shooting.  Freshmen have a tendency to do that, so it will be interesting to see whether Arthur's "true" level is about his current averages for the season or whether it's closer to the high level he was achieving early on.

Julian Wright is one of the more inconsistent players on the Jayhawks squad.  The numbers still argue that he's a star overall.  It's just a matter of which JuJu shows up each game.  Mario Chalmers has been one of the more consistent players.  In fact, going into this game, he's the team MVP by my analysis of multiple regression.  Mario can take over games with 3FG shooting or steals that translate into fast breaks.  Hopefully, Chalmers has found his rhythm for the rest of the season and will continue to improve steadily, as he did last season.

Darnell Jackson has really stepped it up a notch this season.  Rebounding is his forte, but he shoots almost 60 eFG% and gets a ton of FTA's.  Sasha Kaun has eased into the starting role nicely, finally starting to play the efficient game he is capable of.  Meanwhile, Brandon Rush has finally taken his overall shooting to 50 eFG%, the national average.  Given all the minutes he plays, he's not contributing quite as much in some other categories such as steals, and his FT shooting still needs to improve.  But his individual defense is now a strong suit, and if his shooting can stay above 50 eFG% from here on, then Rush should have a very good season.

Finally, the mythical battle for the point guard slot rages on between Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins.  In one camp are folks who believe that Russell has the heart, soul, leadership, experience, and steadiness that should keep him playing 30+ minutes.  Others feel that Collins has more upside, better offensive skills than Robinson's <40 eFG% shooting, and needs to play to be ready to contribute big time in March.  For most of the season, Collins' numbers didn't justify the latter all that much, but the overall numbers right now argue either a virtual tie or an advantage to Collins.  It would be difficult to fault Self at this point for giving Collins even more playing time.  Demoting Robinson to the bench would likely be ill-timed, as Collins has yet to show enough consistency.  But in the fairness of competition, as one player improves and another struggles, it makes sense to adjust playing time somewhat accordingly.  And if the body of evidence begins tipping heavily in favor of Collins, it could make sense to start him sometime during conference season.  Hold on tight, as this ride is just getting underway.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

Game Outlook

Will Tre Kelley play?  If he does, then the outlook below applies.  If not, my guess is that the burden of 3-pt shooting becomes even greater for USC and will require a concerted effort from the other perimeter shooters.  The thing is, they have lots of players who take 3FG's, but none consistently score as much as Kelley, and no one dishes the ball as effectively.

Here are some things we can reasonably expect:

• Neither team should get to the freethrow line a whole lot.
• Rebounding should tilt somewhat strongly in favor of Kansas.
• USC will likely struggle shooting the ball, particularly from the perimeter, but they will still likely take plenty of 3FG's.
• KU shouldn't have too many TO's, particularly steals, so perhaps fewer fast break opportunities for USC.
• It's possible both teams will have a somewhat poor shooting night overall.

In KU's only true road game of the season, it lost a big lead in the 2nd half before falling to DePaul.  This is the Jayhawks' chance to show they can win in a hostile environment against a pretty good team that they are expected to beat.  No question that Tre Kelley will be the biggest barometer for whether USC will have a chance.  All indications are that the Gamecocks will take a lot of 3FG's, especially since KU swats 2FGA's in its sleep.  If Kelley and the three other USC players who have taken 40+ three-pointers this season can convert consistently from deep, then KU will have to be playing at a high level to win.  The Jayhawks shouldn't turn it over a whole lot and should dominate the offensive glass, meaning that if USC wants KU to struggle offensively, it will likely have to keep their shooting percentage very low (force mid-range and long-range jump shots) and keep them off the FT line (which is expected in this game anyway).  As has been the case most of the season, then, KU's performance is going to rely very heavily on their shooting percentage.  The culprits for bad shooting for KU of late have been Darrell Arthur and Russell Robinson.  Arthur's the one who shoots a lot though.  His ability to come back around could be key if the Jayhawks are to establish an inside presence and shoot a high percentage.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 68-64.

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