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Preview: Kansas at Nebraska

January 28, 2007

Kansas at Nebraska (Lincoln, NE)

  Kansas Nebraska

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 18-3 10-7
AP Rank 8 NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		 8 74
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		 14 77
RPI 16 105
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		 vs Florida (# 2) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Southern Cal (# 34) W 72-62		 vs Creighton (# 38) W 73-61
vs Houston (# 86) W 70-57

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 6.5
Projection: 68-62		  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 4.25  
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)		 Win 69-60
82% chance of victory		  
Last 10 Games + Venue Adjusted
(uses team performance and consistency over last 8 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location)		 Win by 2.25
73.7% chance of victory		  
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 30% Sagarin + 30% Pomeroy + 10% Last 10)		 Win by 6
Projection: 69-63		  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Brady Morningstar* 5.68 8.02
Julian Wright 5.29 74.19
Darnell Jackson 5.07 36.61
Mario Chalmers 4.82 72.70
Sherron Collins 4.00 43.00
Sasha Kaun 3.92 36.92
Jeremy Case* 3.50 6.48
Darrell Arthur 2.90 31.65
Brandon Rush 2.89 49.88
Russell Robinson 2.88 43.59
Brennan Bechard* 1.73 0.41
Rodrick Stewart* 1.15 2.79
Matt Kleinmann* 0.36 0.38
Brad Witherspoon* -10.87 -2.39

* Rating not based on enough data.

Nebraska

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

 
 
PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Aleks Maric 5.59 61.63
Choul Laam* 4.04 0.82
Marcus Perry 3.62 27.30
Jim Ledsome 3.44 11.56
Charles Richardson Jr. 3.03 45.69
Ryan Anderson 2.85 27.58
Jamel White 2.01 21.10
Paul Velander 1.08 4.44
Jay-R Strowbridge 0.17 1.01
Sek Henry -0.26 -2.84
Chris Balham* -0.40 -0.75
Mike Smith* -2.36 -3.43
Kyle Marks* -2.95 -5.89
Nick Krenk* -3.18 -2.24
Kris Douse -3.29 -5.07
Glenn White* -3.97 -1.17

* Rating not based on enough data.
 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Player analysis provided not provided here but will be here in future write-ups.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 336 Div-I teams
 (Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Nebraska
  • Offense #49 - Defense #3 - Tempo #69
  • Usually win the all-important eFG% category: #36 shooting, #11 allowed (#4 in 2FG% allowed)
  • Ranks #50 in 2FG% and #46 in 3FG%
  • Ranked #24 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #13 in STL
  • Dominates the blocking game, #2 in BLK and #43 in avoiding BLK
  • Ranks #310 in % of FGA's that are 3FG

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Jan 21)

  • Mario Chalmers - #9 STL rate
  • Russell Robinson - #34 FT rate
  • Julian Wright - #78 D-Reb%, #108 BLK rate
  • Darrell Arthur - #157 O-Reb%, #29 BLK rate
  • Offense #57 - Defense #105 - Tempo #304
  • Excellent shooting team: #8 eFG%, #13 in 2FG%, #35 in 3FG%
  • Ranks #16 in forcing TO's by opponent
  • Terrible O-REB% (#308)
  • Allow very high 3FG% by opponent (#257)
  • Get blocked way too often on offense (#255)
  • Lots of 3FG's in NU games: #31 in % of FGA's that are 3FG's and #295 in minimizing opponent's % that are 3FG's
  • Impressive #9 in % of FG's that are assisted

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Jan 21)

  • Charles Richardson Jr. - #66 AST rate, #87 STL rate
  • Aleks Maric - #35 eFG%, #6 D-REB%, #149 FT rate, #123 BLK
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely very heavily on 3FG's.
  • On offense, NU relies very heavily on 3FG's, while its opponents rely more on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Strengths and weaknesses table not provided here for this game but will return in future previews.

 

Game Outlook

KU is a different team on the road, and Nebraska is a different team at home.  Most of the season trends are going to be skewed in the Cornhuskers' direction as a result.  First, let's look at what those season trends would dictate, without taking into account the venue for this game:

  • KU should block a lot of NU's shots inside without getting blocked much when it has the ball.
  • KU should shoot very well from the field, both inside and outside the arc.
  • Nebraska shouldn't have too many second-chance opportunities to score.
  • Both teams will turn the ball over with high frequency.
  • The bigger mismatch should be KU's offense against NU's defense.

Sounds like a recipe for an easy KU victory, right?  But KU doesn't shut down opponents' offensive rebounds on the road much and even struggled at home against lowly Colorado.  Blocks are less frequent on the road for KU.  Margin of turnovers has been much less in favor of Kansas the last several games, so it's easier to imagine that NU would win that battle or at least stay even.  And since the overall efficiency numbers show NU's offense having something of a chance against KU's defense, then it could be a long day for the Jayhawks, who have a tendency to make life difficult for themselves on offense.

Nebraska is only 1-4 in its last five games, but they split the two home games during that stretch, including an understandable one-point loss to Texas.  With a player the caliber of Maric, a strong home record, and KU's inconsistency, the Jayhawks should actually be only a slim favorite in this one.  What actually happens tomorrow is a product of chance, so even though KU should be a slim favorite, I am going with the Cornhuskers for the upset.  Not what I want as a KU fan, but this one just doesn't smell right.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Nebraska wins 65-63.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
KU must return to its rebounding dominance to shut down NU's offense and keep its own offense alive. KU to hold at least 8% advantage in O-REB% (calculated for each team as O-REB / [O-REB + opp D-REB])    
NU has to seize its expected ability to force KU turnovers NU to force at least 22% TO rate on KU possessions    
NU will use the 3FG plenty, but even KU may exploit the perimeter as most of NU's opponents have Either team with advantage of at least 8% in 3FG shooting percentage    


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