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Preview: Kansas at Missouri

February 10, 2007

Kansas at Missouri (Columbia, MO)

  Kansas Missouri

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 20-4 14-8
AP Rank 9 NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		 6 49
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		 11 74
RPI 19 84
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		 vs Florida (# 2) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Southern Cal (# 28) W 72-62		 vs Arkansas (# 30) W 86-64
vs Mississippi St (# 46) W 83-75

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 6
Est. Projection: 76-70		  
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)		 TBD  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 5.3  
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)		 Win 76-70
73% chance of victory		  
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location.  If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, fewer than 10 total games are used.)		 Win by 4.9
84.4% chance of victory		  
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)		 TBD  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Julian Wright 6.00 94.52
Darnell Jackson 5.17 44.79
Brady Morningstar* 4.89 7.51
Mario Chalmers 4.73 82.35
Sherron Collins 4.69 60.25
Russell Robinson 4.07 70.28
Darrell Arthur 3.73 44.73
Brandon Rush 3.37 66.11
Sasha Kaun 3.10 32.39
Jeremy Case* 2.89 5.58
Rodrick Stewart* -0.09 -0.22
Matt Kleinmann* -1.87 -2.18
Brennan Bechard* -2.54 -0.85
Brad Witherspoon* -13.59 -3.34

* Rating not based on enough data.

Missouri

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

 
 
PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Matt Lawrence 3.43 52.76
Leo Lyons 3.21 33.12
Kalen Grimes 3.13 29.89
Stefhon Hannah 2.98 51.56
Marshall Brown 2.47 30.63
Vaidatos Volkus* 1.99 5.66
Marcus Watkins* 1.77 5.00
Keon Lawrence 1.46 16.56
Nick Berardini* 1.21 0.31
Jason Horton 0.27 3.81
Darryl Butterfield 0.12 0.91
J.T. Tiller -0.08 -0.68
Glen Dandridge* -1.51 -2.62
Michael Anderson Jr.* -3.34 -1.64

* Rating not based on enough data.
 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

There's a fair bit of similarity between the two teams' ratings.  Each has balance in the top 3-5 players, then ratings drop off very gradually into the rest of the lineup.  The major difference is that KU's ratings start about 2.5 points higher.  In terms of talent, it's clear that KU is superior, but that has never meant much in this series, especially when KU is the underdog in Columbia.

My article at Phog.net looks at conference-only ratings and has more in-depth player analysis.  It will be up sometime Saturday morning.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 336 Div-I teams
 (Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Missouri
  • Offense #30 - Defense #3 - Tempo #65
  • Usually win the all-important eFG% category: #42 shooting, #14 allowed (#4 in 2FG% allowed)
  • Solid rebounding on both ends (#37 O-REB%, #32 opp O-REB%)
  • Ranks #44 in 3FG% and #47 in 2FG%
  • Ranked #33 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #16 in STL
  • Dominates the blocking game, #2 in BLK and #43 in avoiding BLK
  • Ranks #309 in % of FGA's that are 3FG

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Feb 4)

  • Mario Chalmers - #9 STL rate
  • Russell Robinson - #75 FT rate, #125 STL rate
  • Julian Wright - #85 D-Reb%, #103 BLK rate, #121 STL rate
  • Darrell Arthur - #137 O-Reb%, #38 BLK rate
  • Offense #60 - Defense #42 - Tempo #20
  • Nation's 2nd best rate of forcing TO's (27% of possessions), including #3 in forcing STL
  • Terrible at getting offensive rebounds (#266)
  • Usually lose the freethrow game (#271 FT Rate, #270 FT Rate allowed)
  • Great at 3FG% (#40) but also terrible defense of it (#287)
  • Strong defense of 2FG% (#48)
  • Avoid blocks on offense (#49)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Feb 4)

  • Stefhon Hannah - #91 AST rate, #14 STL rate
  • Matt Lawrence - #14 eFG%, #116 TO rate (good)
  • Keon Lawrence - #61 TO rate (good)
  • Leo Lyons - #178 BLK rate, #105 STL rate
  • Kalen Grimes - #14 O-REB%, #44 D-REB%, #68 BLK rate
Scoring Distribution:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely more on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's.
  • On offense, MU relies more on 3FG's at the expense of FT's, while its opponents rely very little on 2FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Strengths and weaknesses table not provided here for this game but will return in future previews.

 

Game Outlook

Looking at overall season statistics, we might expect the following for this game:

  • KU should shoot very well from behind the arc and reasonably well overall.
  • MU should have a tough time getting offensive rebounds.
  • The FT line battle should favor KU.
  • MU should win the turnovers battle with lots of steals, but KU will get its far share of steals but not necessarily as many TO's.
  • KU should have a fairly decent number of offensive rebounds.

This would suggest that, if this was not such a rivalry game, KU would simply need to keep its turnovers somewhat in check to click on offense.  MU, on the other hand, would need to shoot extremely well to compensate for its expected lack of offensive rebounding and freethrows.  KU appears to have fixed its problem of rebounding in road games.

But these showdowns are always crazy.  How can you really predict what will happen?  I will simply go with the odds and a pinch of adjustment for the craziness of the rivalry.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 76-71.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
Kaun and Arthur have really struggled at the FT line for KU, but the Jayhawks are expected to do well at the line to help efficiency. KU to attempt at least 6 more FT's than MU and to make at least 70%    
KU turnovers, especially early, could set the tone for this game. MU to force TO's on at least 23% of KU possessions    
MU's best chance on offense will be shooting very well, since they aren't expected to get many offensive rebounds or as many FT's as KU. MU to shoot at least 51 eFG%    


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