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Preview: Kansas at Kansas State

February 19, 2007

Kansas at Kansas State (Manhattan, KS)

  Kansas Kansas State

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 23-4 19-8
AP Rank 6 NR
(# 37 by votes)
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		 2 54
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		 8
(thru Feb 11)		 46
(thru Feb 11)
RPI 17 54
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		 vs Florida (# 4) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Boston College (# 28) W 84-66		 @ Texas (# 30) W 73-72
vs Southern Cal (# 38) W 68-55

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 5.5
Est. Projection: 71-65		  
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)		 Win by 6.4  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 6.5  
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)		 Win 71-62
83% chance of victory		  
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location.  If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, fewer than 10 total games are used.)		 Win by 12.1
97.5% chance of victory		  
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)		 Win by 7.7
Est. Projection: 71-63		  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Julian Wright 6.77 122.21
Darnell Jackson 6.24 63.35
Brady Morningstar* 5.42 8.53
Jeremy Case* 5.38 11.89
Sherron Collins 4.86 72.54
Mario Chalmers 4.68 91.73
Russell Robinson 4.67 89.41
Darrell Arthur 4.20 55.12
Brandon Rush 4.08 89.60
Sasha Kaun 3.62 40.44
Brennan Bechard* 3.58 1.78
Rodrick Stewart* 2.03 5.65
Matt Kleinmann* -0.78 -1.07
Brad Witherspoon* -6.48 -2.44

* Rating not based on enough data.

Kansas State

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

 
 
PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
David Hoskins 4.85 83.27
Cartier Martin 4.58 77.90
Jason Bennett 3.30 23.94
Lance Harris 3.15 53.57
Jermaine Maybank 2.53 22.27
Akeem Wright 2.31 38.04
Luis Colon 2.07 12.13
Ryan Patzwald* 1.18 0.54
Serge Afeli* 0.87 2.34
Blake Young 0.63 8.49
Clent Stewart 0.56 8.74
Delivez Yearby* -0.58 -0.46
Darren Kent* -2.64 -8.49
Chris Merriewether* -4.28 -2.27
James Franklin* -6.62 -0.64
Brady Johnson* -14.96 -1.08

* Rating not based on enough data.
 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 336 Div-I teams
 (Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Kansas State
  • Offense #18 - Defense #1 - Tempo #70
  • Usually win the all-important eFG% category: #28 shooting, #8 allowed (#5 in 2FG% allowed, #42 in 3FG% allowed)
  • Solid rebounding on both ends (#37 O-REB%, #22 opp O-REB%)
  • Ranks #39 in 3FG% and #33 in 2FG%
  • Ranked #31 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #16 in STL
  • Dominates the blocking game, #2 in BLK and #22 in avoiding BLK
  • Ranks #309 in % of FGA's that are 3FG

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Feb 18)

  • Mario Chalmers - #6 STL rate
  • Russell Robinson - #76 FT rate, #139 STL rate
  • Julian Wright - #170 O-Reb%, #89 D-Reb%, #100 BLK rate, #173 STL rate
  • Darrell Arthur - #132 O-Reb%, #40 BLK rate
  • Offense #85 - Defense #29 - Tempo #146
  • #1 in 3FG% allowed but don't shoot well from 3FG themselves either (#261 in 3FG%)
  • Excellent shooting defense overall (#26 eFG% allowed)
  • Very good offensive rebounding (#40)
  • Excellent use of freethrow line (FT rate #46)
  • Rarely steal the ball (#278)
  • Rank #20 in % of FG's that are assisted

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Feb 18)

  • David Hoskins - #173 O-Reb%, #50 FT rate
  • Blake Young - #176 STL rate
Scoring Distribution:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely more on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's.
  • On offense, KSU relies more on FT's but less on 3FG's, while its opponents rely very little on 3FG's.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Not included here.  See my free Phog.net article for conference-only player ratings and analysis.

 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category  
Clear Advantage for Kansas No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for KSU
KSU eFG%**    
KSU 3pt FG%**    
KSU 2pt FG%**    
Kansas OREB**    
Kansas % Poss STL by Opp    
KSU % own 2FGA's blocked**    
KSU FT%**    
KSU % Poss STL by Opp**    
  KSU PTS/Poss  
Kansas 2pt FG%**    
  Kansas TO rate  
  Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked  
  KSU TO rate  
  Kansas FT%  
  KSU OREB  
  Kansas PTS/Poss  
  Kansas eFG%  
  Kansas FT Rate  
  Kansas 3pt FG%  
    KSU FT Rate**

 

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt
Expect uptempo game

 

 

Game Outlook

Some things we can reasonably expect from the statistical analyses above:

  • KSU should struggle shooting the ball inside or outside.
  • Although Kansas may turn the ball over some, they usually won't be steals by KSU.
  • Kansas should get plenty of second-chance opportunities.
  • KSU should get blocked somewhat frequently inside.
  • KSU should get to the freethrow line quite often, but they may not make a very high percentage once there.
  • Kansas will likely shoot very well inside the arc but may struggle from outside the 3-point line.
  • Kansas should have a more clear advantage on defense than when it has the ball.
  • This could be a somewhat uptempo game but not too much.

Given KU's propensity to break streaks this season (in a bad way), it wouldn't be a shock to see the Wildcats pull off the upset tonight.  That would still have to be considered the less likely scenario, however.  The odds favor the Jayhawks.  Whether we should expect a nailbiter or a little more comfortable victory depends upon whether Kansas will continue its recent dominant ways or perhaps show up flat.  The Jayhawks haven't really played a "bad game" since Jan 20 against Texas Tech.  Since then, they've dominated everyone except Texas A&M, who they would have defeated if not for a 3-minute stretch to close the game.  KSU, meanwhile, has given up more than 1.12 pts/possession (NCAA avg = about 1) to four of its last six opponents.  Granted, they won two of those games, but it's usually a safe bet that if Kansas scores more than 1 point per possession, they'll beat you.  (Texas A&M only exception this season)

To shut down Kansas tonight, KSU must control the defensive boards and cause some turnovers.  Both the KU offense and KSU defense most closely correlate efficiencies with eFG% and TO rate.  It probably would help if KSU made its own field goals, since Kansas might try to run off missed shots.  K-State will most likely struggle shooting the ball from the field, so they absolutely must make the Jayhawks pay at the freethrow line.

It's definitely possible to see it end tonight, but "The Streak" should be favored to continue another season.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 71-63.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
KSU must limit Kansas second-chance points KU limited to 33% of available O-Reb    
KSU must capitalize on its expected advantage at the freethrow line KSU to score at least 8 more points at FT line than Kansas    
Kansas should struggle hitting 3FG's, so the inside game must available to them.  Accordingly, the big guys must stay out of foul trouble to help establish lanes, block shots and get offensive rebounds. Kaun, Arthur, Jackson to play a combined 55 minutes with none fouling out.    


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