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Preview: Kansas at Colorado
February 14, 2007
Kansas at Colorado (Boulder, CO)
| Kansas | Colorado | |
|
Talent Indicators |
||
| Div I Records | 21-4 | 6-14 |
| AP Rank | 9 | NR |
| Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily) |
6 | 175 |
| Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) |
8 | 201 |
| RPI | 16 | 222 |
| Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy) |
vs Florida (# 2) W 82-80 (OT) vs Southern Cal (# 32) W 72-62 |
vs Oklahoma St (# 55) W 89-77 vs Central Florida (# 93) W 96-87 |
|
Predictions |
||
| Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 17 Est. Projection: 84-67 |
|
|
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings) |
Win by 17.3 | |
| Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 20.5 | |
|
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) |
Win 88-64 97% chance of victory |
|
| Last 10 Games (Venue
Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location. If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, fewer than 10 total games are used.) |
Win by 17.1 99.9% chance of victory |
|
| Weighted Average of All
Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10) |
Win by 18.7 Est. Projection: 85-66 |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Conference Only
KansasPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70
possessions)
|
| PLAYER | PSAN70 | PSAN |
| Brady Morningstar* | 8.24 | 3.55 |
| Darnell Jackson | 5.84 | 20.56 |
| Julian Wright | 5.19 | 33.17 |
| Sherron Collins | 4.40 | 27.00 |
| Russell Robinson | 3.38 | 24.65 |
| Jeremy Case* | 2.83 | 1.43 |
| Brandon Rush | 2.70 | 23.00 |
| Mario Chalmers | 1.43 | 10.64 |
| Sasha Kaun | 0.77 | 3.95 |
| Darrell Arthur | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Brennan Bechard* | -1.64 | -0.29 |
| Rodrick Stewart* | -2.55 | -1.81 |
| Matt Kleinmann* | -3.27 | -1.16 |
| Brad Witherspoon* | -15.51 | -1.97 |
* Rating not based on enough data.
Colorado
PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70
possessions)
PSAN ("Total Impact")
| PLAYER | PSAN70 | PSAN |
| Marc Van Burck* | 3.69 | 0.58 |
| Dominique Coleman | 0.94 | 6.74 |
| James Inge* | 0.93 | 0.49 |
| Jeremy Williams | -0.45 | -2.72 |
| Jermyl Jackson-Wilson | -2.50 | -12.75 |
| Marcus King-Stockton | -3.25 | -17.47 |
| Richard Roby | -3.30 | -28.69 |
| Xavier Silas | -3.44 | -29.27 |
| Chase Perkowski* | -3.92 | -0.62 |
| Sean Kowal* | -4.33 | -8.06 |
| Kal Bay | -4.41 | -21.55 |
| Dwight Thorne | -5.66 | -22.13 |
| Trent Beckley* | -10.81 | -0.57 |
* Rating not based on enough data.
Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)
No need to get into much analysis here, as it's clearly a mismatch of talent. But there are a couple of noteworthy observations to make.
In conference play, the most efficient player for Kansas is .... drumroll, please ... Darnell Jackson? He's been a monster on the backboards, and he's gotten a fair share of putbacks and freethrows to make a difference on the scoreboard. DJ shoots about 58% from the field and 77% from the line in conference play. And he averages a little over 5 points and 5 rebounds per game in just under 14 minutes per game. Really quite impressive numbers, considering he's not a guy who gets most of his minutes in mop-up duty.
The flipside to Jackson's success story is the downward trajectory of Sasha Kaun and Darrell Arthur. What started out as a promising season for Arthur has taken a turn for the worse. Remember, he's just a freshman though, and he's on a team chock full of talent. Definitely no need to label Arthur a bust by any stretch of the imagination. He's averaging 8 PTS, 4 REB on 53% FG shooting, but only 47% from the line. He also has 2 TO's per game and has only blocked 7 shots in 10 conference games. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he may be able to get into a better flow and contribute more. Kaun, meanwhile, has not shown great signs of improving when he has the ball deep in the post. He's shown that he has moves to the basket, but his problem is in recognition of where the defense is and how wise it would be to go up versus passing it back out. It would be nice if he could learn to find the open man on a double team, but he waits so long and let's the defense collapse on him. His freethrow shooting continues to be woeful (31%) but he does shoot 54% from the field. In short, he just hasn't been contributing as much during conference play.
For CU, there really isn't any bright spot to talk about. Roby takes so many shots, but he's not performing very efficiently. Dominique Coleman has been the only positive rated player in conference play.
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis
| ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | ||
| Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Colorado |
| Kansas 3pt FG%** | ||
| Kansas eFG%** | ||
| Colorado eFG%** | ||
| Colorado TO rate** | ||
| Colorado 2pt FG%** | ||
| Colorado FT%** | ||
| Colorado 3pt FG% | ||
| Colorado PTS/Poss** | ||
| Kansas 2pt FG%** | ||
| Colorado % own 2FGA's blocked** | ||
| Kansas OREB** | ||
| Kansas PTS/Poss** | ||
| Colorado % Poss STL by Opp** | ||
| Kansas TO rate | ||
| Colorado OREB** | ||
| Colorado FT Rate | ||
| Kansas FT% | ||
| Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | ||
| Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | ||
| Kansas FT Rate | ||
| Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt |
| Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted |
| Colorado will have below avg % of FG's assisted |
| Expect uptempo game |
Game Outlook
Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 85-70.
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For |
|||
|
Keys to Watch For |
Metric |
Result |
Edge (Comments) |
| KU can't be careless or miss the easiest opportunities. | KU to commit TO's on fewer than 21% of possessions and make at least 65% of FT's. | ||
| CU can slow down the KU offense by keeping them away from the offensive glass. | CU to limit KU to 25% O-REB | ||
| Richard Roby takes tons of shots, so it better be a stellar night of shooting for him. | Roby to shoot at least 50 eFG% | ||
|
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