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Preview: Kansas at Baylor

January 23, 2007

Kansas at Baylor (Waco, TX)

  Kansas Baylor

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 16-3 10-7
AP Rank 8 NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		 9 116
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		 14 104
RPI 18 122
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		 vs Florida (# 2) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Southern Cal (# 30) W 72-62		 vs Texas Tech (# 49) W 73-70
vs Colorado St. (# 90) W 87-82 (2OT)

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 10
Projection: 75-65		  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 6.5  
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)		 Win 76-62
91% chance of victory		  
Last 10 Games
(uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 5 other most recent games regardless of location)		 Win by 8
93.6% chance of victory		  
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 30% Sagarin + 30% Pomeroy + 10% Last 10)		 Win by 10
Projection: 75-65		  
 

 

SPECIAL
PSAN-Related Player Ratings for Kansas - Road Games Only

Below are KU player ratings using only true road games this season.
Standard ratings for all games are not included in this preview but will be in future previews.

Explanation of Ratings
 

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Sasha Kaun 6.40 11.59
Mario Chalmers 4.55 14.66
Darrell Arthur 2.74 6.40
Julian Wright 2.64 6.90
Sherron Collins 2.09 4.09
Brandon Rush 1.07 3.54
Russell Robinson 0.49 1.42
Rodrick Stewart* 0.00 0.00
Darnell Jackson* -3.28 -2.27
Jeremy Case* -6.47 -0.30

* Rating not based on enough data.
 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Not presented for this game.  Will be in future previews.

 

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics
Note: There are 336 Div-I teams
 (Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Baylor
  • Offense #50 - Defense #4 - Tempo #104
  • Ranks #13 in eFG% allowed, and #6 in 2FG% allowed
  • Ranks #48 in 2FG%
  • Ranked #40 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #18 in STL
  • Dominates the blocking game, #2 in BLK and #23 in avoiding BLK
  • Ranks #313 in % of FGA's that are 3FG

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Jan 21)

  • Mario Chalmers - #9 STL rate
  • Russell Robinson - #34 FT rate
  • Julian Wright - #78 D-Reb%, #108 BLK rate
  • Darrell Arthur - #157 O-Reb%, #29 BLK rate
  • Offense #82 - Defense #145 - Tempo #313
  • Ranks #26 in avoiding TO's but only #301 in forcing TO's
  • Rank #6 in keeping opponents off FT line
  • Only #267 in 3FG%
  • Steal very rarely from opponents (#317)
  • Ranks #287 in % of FG's that are assisted

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Sun Jan 21)

  • Henry Dugat - #172 eFG%
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely very heavily on 3FG's.
  • On offense, BU relies very heavily on 3FG's, while its opponents rely somewhat less than usual on 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Not presented for this game.  Will be in future previews.

 

Game Outlook

Another game on the road against a team that Kansas should beat provides the backdrop for the latest test of KU's star-studded lineup.  Based on cumulative season trends, here are some things we can reasonably expect:

  • KU should fare well on the offensive glass.
  • Overall TO's should be low for KU and somewhat higher for BU, and steals should be slightly in favor of KU but not by much.
  • The bigger mismatch should be when KU has the ball on offense.
  • BU should have plenty of shots swatted away inside by the KU big men.

The problem for Kansas is that their road performances have been nothing to write home about.  Other than beating a pretty weak South Carolina team, they've struggled and/or lost the other road games.  Even though the prediction models above give KU a 90+ % chance of victory, an analysis of variance using only KU's road games and Baylor's last 5 home games yields only about a 70% chance of a KU victory.  Considering Baylor's propensity to shoot the 3FG, it is conceivable that an emotionally-charged Baylor team could get hot from the perimeter and bury the Jayhawks.  Not likely, but it's possible.

More likely is a scenario in which Kansas shows up with vengeance for the loss in Lubbock.  Aggressive defense and rebounding could be the order of the day, with KU going inside early and often.  If you listened to Bill Self's comments the last couple of days, he is fed up with the team not using its advantages (inside play) to create better opportunities for other offense (perimeter shots).  He doesn't want KU to take unwise shots early in the possession, so I'd expect to see KU passing the ball a few more times before hoisting anything up.  Baylor's best chance is going to be a hot 3FG-shooting night, a poor shooting night for KU's main shooters (Rush, Arthur, and Chalmers) and keeping KU off the freethrow line.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 76-65.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
Baylor will fire away from deep, so they must make a healthy percentage to have a chance. Baylor to shoot at least 38% from 3FG    
Rebounds and TO's are not an area BU will exploit when KU has the ball, so they must take advantage of the other two (FG and FT shooting) Main KU shooters (Rush, Arthur, Chalmers) to shoot no more than 45 eFG%    
See above KU to attempt 14 or fewer FT's    


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